A somewhat silly ESPN feature asks who the next young NBA star will be. Three panelists write about Adam Morrison. What will become of him, I couldn't say. I do notice, however, that nobody mentions Gerald Wallace in this regard. It seems to me, though, worth noting that Wallace and Morrison appear to play the same position and to be on the same team. What's more, as best I can tell, Wallace is Charlotte's best player. Since it's the Bobcats, I haven't ever actually seen them play so the "best I can tell" isn't necessarily very good. But the numbers indicate that he's very good. The Wages of Wins guys give him a WP48 rating of 0.335 which is quite high.
What's more, that's not one of these WoW idiosyncracies. John Hollinger gives him a 21.35 PER and says he's a good defender. He scores in modest quantities but very efficiently, rebounds well, and gets a lot of blocks and steals. I'm not seeing superstardom here by any means, but he's good, and it seems inherently problematic for a team to have its best prospect and its best player playing the same position.
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Does Hollinger's PER take into account injury problems?
I'm assuming it doesn't because Wallace's injury problems strip him of a lot of value.
Wallace and Morrison will fill both the swing positions. Wallace is a poor shooter], but Morrison is expected to be a great shooter. Morrison is expected to be a poor defender, while Wallace can cover the opponent's best offensive threat. They'll struggle against teams like the Nets, who with Jefferson and Carter have elite threats at both positions, but that's actually rather uncommon. Expect to see Morrison on Deshawn Stevenson, for instance.
Now if Charlotte signs Bonzi Wells, there could be a real logjam, but they had one of the thinnest backcourts last season, so it wouldn't necessarily be unmanageable.
"The Wages of Wins guys give him a WP48 rating of 0.335 which is quite high. What's more, that's not one of these WoW idiosyncracies. John Hollinger gives him a 21.35 PER"
But, of course, this is yet another situation where the amount of information in basketball statistics is quite limited.
Wallace played for a pretty lousy team last year. Therefore, he got significantly more minutes, touches, and responsibility than he would on a good team. Good stats on a lousy team tells you very little about a player's actual worth.
"But the numbers indicate that he's very good."
The numbers don't indicate anything like this.
Instead, they indicate he had the best season in terms of measurable stats of anyone on the Bobcats last year.
The numbers really don't tell you if Wallace is a very good player or a mediocre player. I only saw a couple of Bobcats games last year, and based on that too limited sample, I'd say Wallace is a good player, but nothing worth getting that excited about.
I could see them playing Morrison and Wallace together. It's not like the Bobcats have a 2-guard that would keep Wallace out of the lineup.
I'm always a bit leary of these guys who all of a sudden make a giant leap when they go to an expansion franchise. Do they have talent that would make them useful on a good team? Or are they just a good player on an awful team? I remember a guy by the name of Tony Campbell back in the early '90s. Was picked up by the T-Wolves in their expansion draft. He went from being a bench player on a good team to being a 20+/game scorer that first years of the T-Wolves franchise. But as soon as he got off the expansion Wolves (he went to the Knicks) he was back to being a mediocre bench player. I'm not saying that Wallace is like that; ony that's a possibility.
I like Wallace, from the little I've seen of him. But he's struck me as a complementary player, not a star.
Yikes. Same opinion as Petey again.
The ESPN guys don't mention Wallace because he was mentioned on the previous day's feature. Today's seems limited to "guys who still haven't played a day in the NBA".
Al and Petey are right about Wallace putting up big numbers in a bad team, but it might also be the case that he was a good player stuck behind better players and with a coach that didn't play him often enough in Sacramento.
The WP48 index measures efficiency, not productivity. It's a lot like baseball's ERA figure: take an average per minute or inning, and multiply it by 48 or 9. How many minutes are played or innings are pitched doesn't enter into it.
A guy who misses most of his shots and coughs up the ball a lot can have a worse score than a guy who hardly ever touches the ball (i.e., it's possible to have a negative WP score). So it isn't the case that being the only good player on a bad team will inflate your WP or WP48 score. Moreover, that complaint is far more true of the traditional stats most often cited by old-school sports journalists: points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocked shots.
Brandon Roy will be better than both of them.
"A guy who misses most of his shots and coughs up the ball a lot can have a worse score than a guy who hardly ever touches the ball ... So it isn't the case that being the only good player on a bad team will inflate your WP or WP48 score."
Badly flawed reasoning.
Wallace is very talented. He has super high athleticism and length and translates that into a very nice defensive player. He's got the "inconsistent jumper" factor going which just means he isn't a particularly good shooter but he gets a bunch of easy baskets on the break or after turnovers -- converting on turnovers is an underrated aspect of the game.
I think any team that can't find good minutes for him needs a new coach. The biggest worry is his injury history. If he can stay healthy I can't imagine a rookie with questionable defensive ability taking too many minutes from him.
On the other hand, Wallace doesn't shoots that much (which is the primary way in which being the only good player on a bad team helps you). The main difference between 05/06 Wallace and 04/05 Wallace is that the former shoots much better on 2pointers, turns over the ball less and rebounds a bit better. Could be a fluke (high variation on FG% on 2 point shots often is) or could be he's just developing (he's just 23).
after watching his mood swings in the NCAA tournament last year, i have him pegged for the next pervis ellison.
Could be a fluke (high variation on FG% on 2 point shots often is) or could be he's just developing (he's just 23).
Or better point guards getting him the ball in better position for more dunks.
As a comparison, look at Richard Jefferson. Here's a swing player with a low number of shot attempts and a high FG%. Why? J-Kidd gets him a lot of dunks, and he doesn't take a lot of more forced shots. Could be that Wallace is similar - he had better PGs in '05/'06 who could get him a lot more dunks or other high percentage shots, and he didn't force a lot of bad shots.
Being on a bad team doesn't tend to inflate defensive stats, which is where Wallace really stands out. Over two blocks a game from a swing man is amazing.
Could be but the starting PG was Brevin Knight in both seasons.
and Felton.
Frankly, I expect Wallace to regress a bit because I don't see how he can keep up that shooting. But not much because he's pretty young and is probably getting better. The injuries on a guy his age scare me though.
Wallace contributes in three ways at a near elite level:
1. Blocked shots. Not many swing men that get 2 blocks a game. In terms of intimidation, only AK47 and Josh Smith come even close to Wallace.
2. Offensive rebounding. Always near the basket. Gets a lot of put backs and follow-up dunks.
3. Man defense. When Wallace came into the league, he was not ready to defend all star swing men. Now that he's learned more about the NBA game and earned the respect of the refs, he is one of the few guys with the size and quickness to cover a Tracy McGrady or Vince Carter. Wallace still needs to show consistency on this end, but I think he gets there (especially if Okafor can stay healthy to provide a backline presence).
Gerald (like Ben) Wallace is valuable precisely because he does not need the ball in his hands to make an impact. Guys like Morrison or Bonzi Wells (20 points if you give 'em 15 shots) are a lot easier to find in the league.
As for Morrison, I still don't believe the hype. He should find a way to score, but all the other stuff (rebounding, defense, getting teammates involved) is going to be a lot harder at the NBA level and he didn't exactly shine in any of those areas at Gonzaga. To me Morrison projects as a poor man's Detlef Schrempf.
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