Da Bulls
Chris Mannix comes forward with a bold proposition: The Chicago Bulls will win an NBA championship in the coming season. It's a bold prediction, but not one that he seems to have supported with very much argument. I agree with him that we can expect to see the team improve considerably, but it's worth keeping the baseline in mind. The 2006 Bulls were a mediocre team at best, putting up a .500 record in the weaker conference. They were good defensively, but at sixth in the league not super good. And they were actually quite poor (22nd out of 30) on offense. Nothing they've done this offseason looks to me likely to dramatically improve the offense, and even if you think adding Ben Wallace would suddenly make them the best defensive team in the league a championship seems like a longshot.
I think that were one to be inclined to make a preseason wager, the smart bet is for a Miami repeat. Not necessarily because they're the best team in the league. But I expect the post-Wallace Pistons to decline quite a bit, and don't think anyone else in the East has improved to that level. So of the top four teams in the league, three (Phoenix, Dallas, San Antonio) are all in the West which winds up making Miami's odds look pretty good.
Comments
I don't pay much attention until the season starts, but I went out to look thru the off-season moves
Without the injuries and with another year of Johnson and cohesion, Dallas can be at least 10% better season and playoffs than last year. Phoenix can beat them in the West, but is vulnerable to injuries. San Antonio declines, Memphis improves.
I can't see Miami significantly improving, a healthy Shaq is a year older Shaq, but they won the championship.
So Miami vs Phoenix.
The Bulls?
Why is there never anybody like this at my poker table?
There's always a bias toward making outrageous predictions. If it doesn't come true, nobody will remember it. If it does, you can refer back to it forever. Pay this no attention.
"So of the top four teams in the league, three (Phoenix, Dallas, San Antonio) are all in the West which winds up making Miami's odds look pretty good."
Two quibbles:
I don't think Phoenix is on the same level with San Antonio, Dallas, and Miami. I don't think we're likely to see Amare at anything close to pre-surgery levels this year.
And the thing that makes Miami's odds look less than overwhelming is their apparent fragility. They lost in '05 because of injury, and they almost lost to Dallas in '06 because D-Wade had the sniffles.
Miami is too old. If you are going to go with conventional wisdom, the safe bet is Dallas. They came close. Johnson, nowitzki, and cuban are smart guys. They they will learn from the experience.
How about the Clippers
I'm going to put in a defense for the Bulls here. I wouldn't say they'll win the championship, but they could easily get there.
First, the Bulls were not a mediocre team at best in 2006. They started poorly, then came on strong in the second half of the season, the second year in a row Skiles has had them peaking come Playoff time. They gave Miami the toughest series they had in the East and if it weren't for Wade's late heroics in Game Five o' that series, they could have toppled them. I think they overpaid for Wallace, but he'll play more than 25 minutes a game, which is all you could get (at most) from Tyson Chandler before he picked up his sixth.
Offensively, they didn't need to add much, because their scorers are youngsters who will improve just by getting more experience. I guarantee this: Luol Deng is going to break out this year--the last two weeks of last season, he was unstoppable. (Posey put the clamps on him in the Playoffs, but he does that to a lot of players.) I see Deng averaging at least 20 this year. It's also Year Three for Baby Gordon and Noce, and Year Four for Hinrich. (Check out the stats for Kidd and Nash in their first three years, compare them to Captain Kirk, and see who comes out ahead. Considerably.) That gives them the most solid starting lineup, 1 thru 5, in the East.
Really, there's only one thing that can possibly stop them: Dwyane Wade.
bad enough that the heat win it all b/c of a dallas collapse, now they get back b/c the east has collapsed. i wouldn't be surprised if someone from the east nonetheless figures out a way to beat the heat, and the bulls seem the best best (the bulls gave them trouble last year). but i certainly don't see the bulls beating whoever comes out of the west.
as for the west, i think the wildcard is PHX and amare's return. if it works, it might work big. but PHX seems snakebit in some ways. and for some reason, i'm just not feeling like dallas has made the turn into a real contender. i also expect the spurs to be better, not worse (duncan's foot will be better, findog's second year with team, parker more mature (but broken finger), etc. and could even see the clippers or rockets wreaking some havoc.
useless comments, i know.
Something of an X-factor is Tyrus Thomas. You've got to think that they are going to need him to play some significant minutes, since their big men consist of Wallace, PJ Brown and Sweetney (Nocioni being too small to be a "big man", although I guess they play him at the 4 when going to a small lineup).
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