New Pentagon report puts it a bit more politely than that but you don't really need to read very far between the lines. I still find it fairly astounding that the defense department can't seem to admit to itself that the very "Conditions that could lead to civil war exist in Iraq," namely "Sustained ethno-sectarian violence" just are a civil war. At the moment, it's lower intensity than some civil wars have been, and lower intensity than the Iraqi civil war probably will become at some point.
Prospect subscribers can see my most recent take on Iraq. A rough summary would be this. As of just a few months ago, I think it's possible that a smarter policy centered around some kind of framework for withdrawal combined with a push toward political compromise could have actually worked. Worked in the sense of having a decent chance of avoiding a giant bloodbath. But that moment has passed and one way or another, Iraq is almost certainly screwed. The only question is how long our troops will need to keep suffering because our political elites can't admit that.
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One wonders how James Baker is doing in his project to extract the boy-emperor form his quagmire. If Baker fails, the answer to Matt's question is at least two more years. By then we can hope our troops will begin refusing to die for a hideous mistake.
Never mind that violent deaths in Iraq dropped substantially in August. Guess that wouldn't fit the predetermined storyline. Oh well, who needs facts when there's a story to get out?
Of course, if you actually click on Al's link, you'll find this about these tentative figures determined through dubious methodology by an Iraqi minister:
"Accurate figures have been problematic. Police and hospitals often give conflicting figures of those killed in major bombings. It is also unclear how many people have been abducted and slain by insurgents or death squads, their bodies never found."
But, of course saying that rather than categorically stating that deaths are down wouldn't fit the predetermined storyline, now would it?
The Brits drew the map of Iraq 80 years ago,and ever since, a civil war was inevitible. It's not surprising that the Brits are fighting there, but, why the hell is the US involved? I'm thinking the best job for Bushco in 2009 is taking over the Knicks. They're adept at taking over other people's screw ups and making them worse.
Hmmm, the cynical among us don't believe that they ever really had good intentions for Iraq the country. Divide and conquer, let them slaughter themselves once the Saddam lid is off (as many predicted could happen), poison the land with DU, and keep the reserves (oil) until needed (the ones in uniform are disposable).
Of course it is a civil war. Of course the people in the Pentagon probably want to continue their careers. So they are telling the truth without coming out and explicity saying it. Letting us "fill in the blanks".
But of course El Presidente needs to stay the course or his political house of cards will crumble. But it is what it is...and that is a civil war.
Al wrote: "Never mind that violent deaths in Iraq dropped substantially in August. Guess that wouldn't fit the predetermined storyline."
And spontaneous sing-alongs of Kum-Ba-Ya exploded in August. What do you say to that, Mr. Yglesias!
Congrats on the new digs and good luck with the book. Glad to see that your site is free of links to the Bullshit Moose . . . and why the hell does Josh still blogroll that asswipe?
Random comment--I said I'd email you, but I have no email or phone number for you. I can be reached through my blog email, or at myrealname@economist.com.
Police and hospitals often give conflicting figures of those killed in major bombings.
And let's not forget that Sunnis are now afraid to go to hospitals for fear that they'll be shot in their beds by Shia death squads. Which is nice.
Don't people go to hospitals to die? WBR LeoP
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