Listen to Arianna!

How can we get them to do it is the question? It's so depressing. Especially as gas prices are coming down!
They could hammer the republicans on social security with some effect however. It's got a be a package deal.

I've done phone bank calling to independents and among the huge minority of people that are willing to talk to you - Iraq is the issue, not terrorism.

How did the political leadership in this country get to be in such sorry shape? We get to choose between a bunch of crooks and liars or the demoratic party- either too scared or too dumb to win elections. I just can't figure out which it is.

"Arianna Huffington notes that Democrats have somehow once again convinced themselves that "the economy" will be the key issue in the midterm elections and this is what Democratic candidates need to focus on. Pardon me while I go vomit"

Ah, yes. The Huffington/Yglesias upscale Democrats think the economy isn't important.

Pardon me while I go vomit.

Petey, were you even reading the same post? His point wasn't that the economy isn't important in some sort of absolute sense, but that it's not what's going to win the election, which I agree with.

I actually think that the economy is much more important in a universal sense, and that terrorism/security is more important in a political sense.

The opposition party may need some constructive suggestions about strategy, as well as valid criticisms about moral priorities.

I assume you think there would need to be a Senate filibuster. How to gather maximum political and public support for it? McCain and the Republican senators seem subject to White House and party pressures in ways that may not apply to others who've actually been engaged already -- Colin Powell, the retired Joint Chiefs chairmen, maybe still the JAGs. Most of all, military lawyers and the officer corps generally, insofar as they remain dedicated to professionalism and Geneva-compliance.

If the Dems are willing to fight, there should still be plenty of support. It would be their task to rally it, rather than McCain's. Maybe that should be the focus over the coming couple days.

"His point wasn't that the economy isn't important in some sort of absolute sense, but that it's not what's going to win the election, which I agree with."

Well, then, I'd suggest you are as clueless about the political realities as Huffington and Yglesias.

The Dems have the chance to make significant advances in this year's elections despite being the minority electoral coalition on cultural grounds due to twin factors: the current administration is busy losing a war in Iraq, and the economy is lousy for folks below the Huffington/Yglesias level of wealth.

I understand that Huffington and Yglesias don't have to worry about paying for gasoline or paying for health care, but the voters Dems need to make significant advances this year do have to worry about such things.

Although nationally security is clearly the bigger issue, it's at least conceivable that when voters pull levers for their own district's representative that the economy starts to matter more. Security is national, economy is local, and although representatives help run the nation, they're still elected locally.

The national party should clearly emphasize the failure of the war in Iraq, and it's failure to do so is unfortunate, but I'm not sure that's also true of the individual people running.

petey, i bow to no one in my criticism of the bush administration's approach to the economy, but if you really think that given a choice between someone over here who is saying "the economy isn't as good as bush says it is and you know it" and someone over there saying "democrats will allow the terrorists to run amuck," the majority of swing voters will opt for "the economy isn't as good as bush says it is and you know it," then i'd suggest you stick to basketball. this has nothing to do with matthew's economic position in the world....

I sympathized with Matt's comment questioning the wisdom of the Democrats hiding behind McCain's skirts. It's now clear that the worry was well-founded. Even a stand as feeble as 'we support McCain et al. in opposing Bush's attempt to gut the Geneva conventions because [fill in statement of important principles at stake here]' would have been something. They would then have had a basis for deciding whether they could support the so-called compromise in good conscience or not, in which case they could break with him for reasons that were already a matter of public record.

I'm with Petey. I have great admiration for Matthew's intellect and Ms. Huffington's talent for self-promotion, but I doubt either of them know better than the professionals how to conduct a mid-term Congressional campaign.

Partisans *always* convince themselves that the road to electoral success is to be more ideologically pure. There is no evidence that this is true.

Goddammit.

Ah, yes. The Huffington/Yglesias upscale Democrats think the economy isn't important.

He didn't say that they can't talk about the economy. He's saying that they shouldn't prioritize the economy over national security issues. You've gotta talk about both.

I have great admiration for Matthew's intellect and Ms. Huffington's talent for self-promotion, but I doubt either of them know better than the professionals how to conduct a mid-term Congressional campaign.

Those professionals lost us a winnable election in 2002, and another one in 2004. I might have deferred to them before their multiple screw-ups, but not anymore.

Pithlord, the Democratic professionals know how to conduct a mid-term Congressional campaign? Sure they do. But can the conduct a WINNING campaign? Their recent record isn't all that hot, you know.

I'm sorry but Ms. Marie Antoinette Huffington is totally clueless about politics and what it takes to take back the House.

Granted, Matt is right that the War in Iraq, etc., is a major issue that should be emphasized by some Democrats (i.e. those in the GOP-held blue districts in CT, NY, PA, & NM-01, IA-01, C0-07, & FL-22. Those districts feature concentrations of suburban voters who are well-informed about foreign policy and generally have a negative attitude towards Bush's handling of foreign policy. And if you look at the advertising so far, Democrats in those districts have emphasized the war and drawn distinctions admirably.

There are, however, a whole other set of conservativish rural districts with a history of populism that Democrats have a unique opportunity to win back. They include a number of districts in the Ohio river valley and the midwest. In these districts, the economy really is the main issue. The general foreign policy belief of many Americans without a specialized knowledge in foreign affairs is a generic patriotism and unwillingness to criticize the President in his use of our military.

In such places the best strategy for the Dems is to suggest that there is little difference between themselves and their opponents on foreign policy issues rather than drawing distinctions on such issues. Meanwhile, Dems should and have been pounding the GOP on issues like body armor, vet care, & port security. Sure the GOP will say they're in favor of these things, too, but all the Dems need to do is play defense on these issues in these districts.

At the same time, continuing to hammer their opponents on their support for policies that help the wealthiest of the wealthiest, oil companies, etc. seems to be working... Just look at the polling data coming out of Indiana where Dems seem to have done very well for themselves on economic issues.

"i bow to no one in my criticism of the bush administration's approach to the economy"

The campaign issue is not the Bush administration's approach to the economy, but instead the condition of the economy.

If Dennis Kucinich were President, the opposition party would still be buoyed by the condition of the economy.

"if you really think that given a choice between someone over here who is saying "the economy isn't as good as bush says it is and you know it" and someone over there saying "democrats will allow the terrorists to run amuck"

I think this is an incredibly inaccurate model of this year's electoral mechanics, which is incredibly appealing to those with the policy focus of Yglesias and Huffington.

"this has nothing to do with matthew's economic position in the world...."

I think most folks who don't obsess over polling tend to have their political tactics shaped by their personal experience.

I don't think it's a coincidence that folks like Arianna Huffington are concerned with very different issues than the voters who will decide Bob Casey's and Ken Lucas's electoral fate are concerned with.

What seank said.

Petey, et. al,
I know Democrats have their differences with the way Bush has handled the economy, and perhaps it would be better under the Dems, but the fact remains that the economy, all things considered, is pretty good. The war is going pretty bad. Now why in God's name would Democrats want to run on the economy? There's also the fact that the federal government doesn't have 100% responsibility for the economy, but it's entirely responsible for the war.

Petey,

You say that the "campaign issue is not the Bush administration's approach to the economy, but instead the condition of the economy". But wasn't the "condition of the economy" worse in 2002 and 2004? If the focus is on the "condition of the economy," why would Democrats do better in 2006 than in 2002 or 2004?

Seriously. What seank said. Best electoral analysis I've read this week.

kevlander,

Actually, I think the Dems have done about as well in '02 and '04 as they reasonably could in the circumstances. Certainly, they have done a lot better than ideological partisans undisciplined by polling would do. (Ideological partisans who make a sharp distinction between what motivates them personally and what will work are a different bag.)

The extent to which Rove and Bush engaged in narrowcasing is (a) exaggerated; (b) not workable for the other party and (c) explains why the Republicans did not do better given the ideal conditions 9/11 gave them.

Just watch, the Dems are going to follow the advice of their brilliant advisers and spend all their time talking about the economy, while the Repubs scare the shit out of the voters. And then, when they again fail to take back congress, the bullshit moose and his ilk will blame the "nutroots" for pushing the party too far to the left.

Just watch.

"Actually, I think the Dems have done about as well in '02 and '04 as they reasonably could in the circumstances."

I agree with you about '02. An election a year after 9/11 was certainly one with a wind at the GOP's back.

I mildly disagree about '04. Bush was seriously vulnerable, though much less so after we stupidly nominated a Northeasterner with elitist cultural markers.

But folks who condemn the Democratic leadership based on a reading of history that begins 4 years ago are missing a fair bit of the story. Democrats have been operating from a position of weakness in nationalized elections for the past 40 years.

"But wasn't the "condition of the economy" worse in 2002 and 2004?"

I don't have the appropriate links or data handy. But if memory serves, in terms of what matters electorally, I'd answer you question with a "no".

Why is this an eaither/or thing? I don't see why Dems cant leverage both the gross economic inequities and the gross war to their political advantage. Polls show most Americans (not just blue staters) are with them on these. "57% say the war in Iraq has not been worth the cost, with 38% saying it has been." - Times Bloomberg.

No need to pick an overarching theme, just bash the Republicans with any and every stick available, and in a post-katrina, mess-o-potamia world, there are some big ones.

Enough of this sanctimonious crap about how Matt and those who agree with him are just rabid partisans who want the party to take some "ideologically pure" position. In this context, that's nothing more than a strawman.

Sure, there are people who want the Democrats to go out there every day saying "out of Iraq now!" But that's different from Matt's position, which is simply that the Democrats need to actually ENGAGE on the Iraq issue, and on national security in general. They need to take a strong stance, not necessarily an ideologically pure one, but a strong one. They can't simply say "Democrats would do a better job of keeping the country safe, but enough about that, let's talk about my jobs program."

Most voters barely pay attention to the details of a candidate's position anyway. What's at stake here is something more important than the substantive position, that being the narrative which says Democrats don't take national security seriously. Like it or not, Democrats just enable that narrative when they try to shuck and jive whenever the topic comes up.

"But that's different from Matt's position, which is simply that the Democrats need to actually ENGAGE on the Iraq issue, and on national security in general."

But, of course, the only reason you don't think they are ENGAGING on those issues is because they are not taking the precise ideological point of view that you espouse...

But, of course, the only reason you don't think they are ENGAGING on those issues is because they are not taking the precise ideological point of view that you espouse...

That's incredibly unfair, Petey. Do you even know what Steve's ideology on the war is?

Just to note, there are two "Steves" on this thread. I'm the one who posted first. I'll have to come up with a new handle.

Ned Lamont on Iraq:

It’s easier for me as a candidate to be clear than it is for Senator Harry Reid, who’s got 47 cats he’s got to herd. So that’s why we end up with “2006 will be a year of transition,” whatever the hell that means. I have tried to be clear, tried to be respectful, but clear. That a change of course is going to mean tough love with the Maliki government and setting some guidelines and supporting a way that we comprehensively get our troops out of harm’s way and have the Iraqis step up.

This is, frankly, not much in the way of substance (reflecting the reality that a Democratic Congress is not suddenly going to take over the Commander-in-Chief mantle) but it's a hell of a lot better than "2006 must be a year of transition." But the point is, Lamont gives people the impression that he's not afraid to talk about Iraq. That's more important than the substance of whether he takes an "out now" position or a "phased withdrawal" position or whatever.

Iraq at least sneaks into the Democratic agenda, even if it's a couple of bullet points on page 22. On the serious, emerging issues of the day - Iran, torture, and the like - they're simply not heard from. All we hear on the news is Republicans caricaturing the Democratic position and saying how weak they are on security issues, and the pushback is a whimper.

I stand by my statement that being willing to talk about these issues in the first place is often more important than the substance of what you say. If Petey wants to believe I'm just a rabid ideologue trying to play it coy, that's his right.

Couple Observations:

A) Democrats don't really have a national security strategy and have few people in the party that can speak with any credibility on this issue.

B) Most Democrats in Congress believe that anytime security is the topic, that automatically favors Republicans politically. They may even be right, but the point is that makes it very difficult to win elections in this climate.

C) If Karl Rove was advising the Democrats this cycle he would say, "get off your a--, turn around and take the fight to them on their best issue---security. Make their strength a weakness."

D) The chances of Democrats actually doing that are minimal, and I thus think there is little hope we will win the election.

"That's incredibly unfair, Petey. Do you even know what Steve's ideology on the war is?"

No. But I know from his comments upthread that he thinks the economy is pretty good.

And the only ways anyone would think that Dems aren't engaging on the war is if they didn't share the ideological line coming out of the Dems, or if they were a bit dimwitted. I'm giving Steve the benefit of the doubt that he isn't dimwitted.

Petey is understandably confused by the presence of 2 Steves in the thread. I feel his pain. In college I lived in an apartment with 3 Steves, one of whom had a girlfriend who liked to proclaim, "One Steve is as good as another!" (I thought that was pretty funny, but Steve didn't.)

Anyway, at the risk of being considered dimwitted, I will continue to argue that the Dems aren't really engaging on Iraq, although they've certainly come light-years since Kerry's muddle of a position in 2004. For the most part, it's been challengers and outsiders who have talked tough on Iraq; the established candidates can't agree on a single position, so like Lamont says, they settle for crap like "this should be a year of transition." What they really need to do is identify someone with credibility on foreign policy and agree to unify behind that guy's position.

Of course, this brings us back to the commentor just above who noted that the Democrats just don't have that many people with serious foreign policy cred. Part of this is because we've had so many Republican administrations in the last quarter-century that few Democrats have had a chance to serve in that sort of capacity. Part of it is summed up by a Wesley Clark anecdote (I wish I could find a link for this) who recounted that they used to bring him in to give foreign policy briefings to the Dem Senate Caucus, and frustratingly, maybe a half-dozen people would show up. Like it or not, there may indeed be a bit of a seriousness deficit lurking under the surface.

But as I said in my previous comment, it's not really about Iraq (which we needed a position on years ago), it's about the 2006 issues like Iran. The Dems seem utterly mute to me, standing there with a finger in the wind, and it creates a terrible perception. If the Dems wanted it to be, this election could be a referendum on whether we should have more preemptive wars like Iraq. But they'd rather recite some "year of transition" crap so they can skip past that and talk about standard Democratic issues like Medicare instead. All I know is, we've been through this playbook before.

Petey's expertise is mainly in his own mind. Yglesias has described a huge reason why "Democrats have been operating from a position of weakness in nationalized elections" -- it's because of an ingrained aversion to discussing foreign and security policy at all. When the inevitable crunch comes (sadly, there ARE other countries out there, and America needs to deal with them somehow), the typical forlorn Dem response is to dredge up some guy who wore a uniform at some point in his past (John Kerry and Wes Clark haven't exactly saved the day, have they?) Personalities are no substitute for reputations won through years of effort.

The economy's mediocre, and trending worse, but as an article in a recent American Prospect or Washington Monthly points out, the great majority is in the solid middle: of middle-aged people in the middle of their careers, who are pretty solidly middle class, i.e., comfortable. The real losers are in the bottom third or quarter of the income distribution -- a traditional Democratic constituency, and one that the party is morally bound to look out for. But also the one that's gonna get fucked the worst should Cheney and his lap dummy launch an Iranian adventure.

I'm the first Steve, who said the economy was pretty good. Which is it, in historical terms. Unemployment is low, inflation is low, GDP growth is real nice. Wages are stagnant, which is bad. Inflation of some very important things is high, also bad. But the economy is definitely better than in 02, when we were in a post-9/11, post-dot-com-crash recession. Why do people still think the economy sucks? Bad journalism, maybe. Maybe we're comparing with the amazingly awesome economy of the late 90s.

Full disclosure, I guess: I'm not a member of any political party, but I'm definitely rooting for the Dems this year.

You guys actually make a lot of sense here. And seem very reasonable. If all dems blogs conducted themselves like you, we on the right might have more to worry about.

i'm with those who think it's fairly local. e.g., in the midwest, where the great american car cos go to die, i'd harp on the economy and outsourcing endlessly, b/c that's gotta play well (you're still playing to fear, which seems to work well, just economic rather than geopolitical). other places where the dems face cultural issues to overcome or all those facing hard economic times will vote democrat regardless, engaging on national security may be the way to go.

When Democrats don't talk about national security, people take their views to be whatever Republicans say that Democratic views are. And that's always worse than what Democrats' views actually are. So when a Democrat actually comes out and talks national security, voters may not be impressed, but they may be relieved. (See the big bounce that Kerry got in the polls after the national security debate.)

petey, really, if you were as sloppy about basketball as you apparently are about the economy....

Al is completely, totally, 100% correct: the economy is much better off today than it was in 2002 and 2004. There has been a slight uptick in the percentage of working age population with jobs, for instance, and there are the first hints of real wage gains for hourly workers.

Now, yes, it is true without question that the distribution of the gains of the economy has been incredibly skewed. it is true without question that the underpinnings of the economy are very fragile, that home equity withdrawal has been a major sustaining factor in consumption, that credit card debt is rising fast, that fewer and fewer people have health insurance with their jobs, that long-term unemployment remains a serious problem, and on and on and on.

but even in a period where there are no "real" gains in income, hedonic adjustments are occurring, which can mask the problem (life sucks, but my new flat-screen tv is bitchin').

which is why making the number one democratic issue "you've never had it so bad" (ok, i hyperbolize) makes no sense: in a year or two, when the recession that is coming hits, then the shit will hit the fan, the fragile underpinnings will be exposed, bankruptcies will explode, home foreclosures will be a disaster, and by 2008 it's entirely possible that an economic focus will be precisely what every democrat should be yammering on 24 hours a day.

but in 2006, to say that the economy is the key to focus on for democrats is not going to get the party anywhere. seank makes a perfectly sensible point - there are districts where an economics first focus does make sense - but the point here was national strategy, not what works in this district or that district.

PS. as for kerry, petey, he lost because 80K voters in Ohio (or fewer, but let's ignore voter fraud for the moment) voted the wrong way. I'm hard pressed to know how you are so sure that it was because kerry was culturally wrong, especially because, when you look at the results, bush won the 13 states of the confederacy by 5.5M votes and kerry won the rest of the country by 2.5M votes....

It makes it a lot easier for Karl Rove to paint the Democrats as wimps when the Democrats are, in fact, wimps.

I forget whose article was vociferously asserting that Kerry screwed up big-time by not going after the Swift Boaters, but they were 100% correct. Democrats are so scared that something cataclysmic might happen if they breach decorum. What do they fear, exactly? Losing elections that they're losing anyway? That Teddy Kennedy may lose his seat to Ken Chase on the way to 535-0 GOP control of both houses of Congress?

In poker, we call this "monsters under the bed." I love to play against players who see lots of monsters under the bed.

Me too: what seank said.

It's all local this time.

Your average "progressive blogger" or commenter on same often seems strongly driven by a desire to all be political p.r. consultants, they are all experts, sure they know exactly what needs to be done to make a national message for the dem party and it ain't what all those losers in the past said.

Problem is: the public at large already hates all the incumbents in this race. That war you are all focused on has already been won! No one, no one, needs your advice on a national message until after November. (Especially: No, they don't have to "fight back" against the whatever. They have to do that to keep bloggers happy, but not the voters they need.) The election is not a national election, it is an election in districts and states, and it is a mid-term election where voting turnout is different than in presidential years.

If you think the GOP won back power in 94 solely by pushing the "Contract with America" as a national message, I've got a bridge to sell you.

Fear is the name of the game, and the Dems need to start playing. We don't need to provide solutions right now, we need to exacerbate the problems and further the impression that the country is headed in the wrong direction. The electorate cannot be content to stay the course. We need to do a better job of fear mongering than the Republicans, on both the economy and the war(s). All is not well, you should not remain calm, things can and will get much worse.

Perhaps the Dem candidates saying nothing about Iraq or natioanl security recall the old saying, "better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open your mouth and remove all doubt."

Just a thought.

Getting blown up by terrorists is a huge cost, but the probability of it happening to any given individual is very small. Even if I believe Party A is much better than Party B at fighting terrorism, and Party B is only a little better than Party A in economic matters, it still would make sense to vote for Party B.

Of course, it's probably true that the average voter doesn't think this way.

Basically, if Dems can't stand up to Karl Rove, how can voters be expected to believe they'll stand up to enemies of America?

folks below the Huffington/Yglesias level of wealth

Matt should feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but I have a feeling that there are quite a few people between the Yglesias and Huffington levels of wealth. In fact, I doubt that the term Huffington/Yglesias has much meaning at all when connected to income and wealth.

I posted the same comment on Kevin Drum's website, but figured since it sums up my feelings rather well on this topic, I'll just repeat:
As a guy who usually votes for the Dems, I'm beginning to get fed up with the party ducking national security issues.
I for one would like to hear what the Democratic Party's position is not only on Iraq but also their policy positions with regards to North Korea, Chavez and Venezuela, a rising China, Lebanon and Hezbollah, a Russia that seems increasingly authoritarian under Putin, increased militarization of the Japanese Defense Forces, and so on.
I mean, I can't be the only person here who wants their party to take national security seriously----can I?

I posted the same comment on Kevin Drum's website, but figured since it sums up my feelings rather well on this topic, I'll just repeat:
As a guy who usually votes for the Dems, I'm beginning to get fed up with the party ducking national security issues.
I for one would like to hear what the Democratic Party's position is not only on Iraq but also their policy positions with regards to North Korea, Chavez and Venezuela, a rising China, Lebanon and Hezbollah, a Russia that seems increasingly authoritarian under Putin, increased militarization of the Japanese Defense Forces, and so on.

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