On The Reading List

I've always been puzzled by the realignment theory of American elections. I never really studied US history or US politics at the college level, so I've never been in a position to claim to be able to assess the arguments offered pro and con for this account of things. It's clear that American political journalists act as if the political science underlying realignment theory is strong and sound. I've also always felt, based on my philosophical background, that the theory looked like a slightly absurd superstition. But who was really to say? Then I saw that one of Steve Teles' recommended books for aspiring journalists is David Mayhew's Electoral Realignments: A Critique of an American Genre of which Teles remarks:

American political journalists continue to talk as if "realignment" was still a meaningful phenomenon. Mayhew shows in this cool and clinical book that it's not, and what is more, probably never was. He also makes some very suggestive comments on what might substitute for realignment as a large-scale explanation for political change.

Sounds like a book I should read. Since it would be a prejudice-confirming book at this point, though, I suppose I should also ask the collective wisdom of the internet to recommend a book making the case for "realignment" as a phenomenon with meaningful explanatory power.

9/21/06 3:43PM del.icio.us this incoming links

Comments

Mayhew makes a fairly convincing case. But that was before I read the Gerber and Malhotra paper on political junk science. http://crookedtimber.org/2006/09/19/attractive-models/

Posted by: decon on September 21, 2006 04:01 PM

Mayhew's book basically takes apart the whole idea of a realigning election. It's been awhile since I read it, but if I remember correctly, he posits the characteristics that a realigning election would really have to have and then shows, systematically and synthetically, that none of the usual suspects (e.g., 1860, 1896, 1932) meet very many of these criteria. It's definitely one of the better political science books I've read in recent years.

Posted by: Number Three on September 21, 2006 04:15 PM

"It's clear that American political journalists act as if the political science underlying realignment theory is strong and sound."

"Realignment theory" isn't really a theory anymore than you could try to speak of "hurricane theory". It's a real and easily observable thing.

It would be difficult to have an even elementary understanding of electoral politics without understanding the realignment concept.

As with any such fundamental concept, there are lots of devils in the details. You can group US political realignments at different time periods than the Wikipedia page does, for one example.

"I've also always felt, based on my philosophical background, that the theory looked like a slightly absurd superstition."

Well, that would certainly explain your incredibly shaky grasp on electoral politics...

"I suppose I should also ask the collective wisdom of the internet to recommend a book making the case for "realignment" as a phenomenon with meaningful explanatory power."

You're asking for a book about light bulbs that would make the case for electricity. All the light bulb books will talk about electricity. And likewise all the political books will talk about realignment.

------

I would suspect the Mayhew book would only be of real interest for those who had developed an overly theoretical and ossified understanding of realignments inside political science academia.

------

Is this one of those philosophy graduates understand less about things than a bright 10th grader does items? Cuz it's weird...

Posted by: Petey on September 21, 2006 04:18 PM

Or, to try to be more helpful...

In early 2005, we entered the beginning of a potential realigning phase. Between Schiavo, SS privatization, bad news out of Mesopotamia, and Katrina, wide swaths of the GOP electorate because to become fundamentally disgruntled with GOP unified control of government.

This creates an opportunity for Dems in '06, '08, '10, and '12 to take the openings offered by the GOP openings to bring some of their folks into our tent. If we can pull that off successfully, that's a realignment happening right in front of your eyes.

-----

The reverse parallel is the '66 elections being the opening for the GOP which they played into a better situation in '68, and by '72 had the realignment well under way until Watergate stopped the realignment dead in it's tracks.

But the same pattern developed in '78 and '80, leading to a further stage of Republican realignment that continued unabated until '94.

------

Skip the theory. Read a political history book.

Posted by: Petey on September 21, 2006 04:34 PM

I don't know of a book that makes a "convincing" case for realignment theory, because Mayhew has pretty much destroyed realignment theory in its classic political science form, but probably the most iconic representative of the genre is Walter Dean Burnham's "Critical Elections and the Mainsprings of American Politics." It was written in the '70s and endured as the best (and most respected) of its genre until Mayhew's refutation, and is still well worth reading. You could also check out works by V.O. Key and James Sundquist (the titles of which fail me now). Happy reading.

Posted by: Jay on September 21, 2006 04:35 PM

"Mayhew has pretty much destroyed realignment theory in its classic political science form,"

Can you unpack that into a couple of paragraphs?

Posted by: Petey on September 21, 2006 04:40 PM

Re. you search for book recommendations, did you ever read Michel Houellebecq?

Posted by: otto on September 21, 2006 05:04 PM

Hey Matt,

First off, Mayhew didn't "destroy" realignment theory as a general framework. He destroyed it in its current incarnation. Unless you're seriously interested in an inside-baseball account of the history of a very specific theory, I'd avoid this one. Its interesting, but not terribly useful for judging the use of the realignment idea out in the real world.

Second, Matt, if you're truly interested in the cyclical nature of American politics, leave the realignment books alone and head straight for Stephen Skowronek's "Politics Presidents Make." Off all of the books I've read over the course of my seemingly endless effort to earn a political science PhD, none have impressed me as much as this one.

Some elections do matter more than others, and Skowronek's work makes (to my mind, at least) the most convincing case I've ever seen for why. More importantly, it actually has fairly significant predictive power. In many ways, the edition written before Clinton's presidency suggested many of the precise problems Clinton actually faced - including impeachment!

Read it. I promise you that you will not regret it.

Posted by: Alex Whalen on September 21, 2006 05:09 PM

I really can't get a handle on whether I accept realignment theory or not, because I can't figure out exactly how strong the theory is supposed to be. Sure, there's the obvious fact that sometimes a large group of people change the way they vote and don't change back. But I'm wondering if the realignment theorists want something stronger, like the idea that this always coincides with a dramatic shift in policymaking, and that things then mostly remain constant until the next realignment. That would be a strong and interesting claim, but my first guess is that it's false. (There's a difference, for example, between Medicare-cutting Newt and Medicare-increasing Bush, both of whom came to power since the last realignment.)

Posted by: Neil the Ethical Werewolf on September 21, 2006 05:25 PM

"But I'm wondering if the realignment theorists want something stronger, like the idea that this always coincides with a dramatic shift in policymaking, and that things then mostly remain constant until the next realignment. That would be a strong and interesting claim, but my first guess is that it's false."

Sure it would be false. Any kind of sweeping claim like that is going to be false in this area.

As Tolstoy once said:

Stable coalitions are all alike; every realignment realigns in its own way.

Skip the theory. Read the history. The underlying patterns should become quickly apparent, and then you can start piecing together the proximate causes.

Posted by: Petey on September 21, 2006 05:33 PM

Not a political scientist here and haven't read Mayhew, but Petey, I think you may be confusing realignment with realignment theory. The theory is the sweeping claim that you agree should be rejected.

Posted by: JP on September 21, 2006 05:36 PM

1)Mayhew's book is brilliant, and just shreds stuff like Schelsinger.

2)As for Petey, he fails to understand the basic point that Meyhew is not arguing that party re-alignments never occur. Of course they do, as anyone who compares the Democratic coalitions in 1990 and 2000 would immediately see. The relevant questions are 1)do they, as is often asserted, happen in predictable cycles (Mayhew demonstrates that they clearly do not), 2)are they gradual and erratic or are they created by certain critical elections (Mayhew demonstrates convincincgly that the former is much more accurate), and 3)are party relaignments the primary cause of political change, or the effects of political change. So, in other words, Petey's arguments are simply non-responsive to anything in Mayhew's book.

Posted by: Scott Lemieux on September 21, 2006 05:43 PM

If realignment theory posits that voters switch their vote with concrete policy changes in mind, then it cleary rests on V.O. Key's rational voter model--which is shaky ground indeed, as Key's model is bunk.

Posted by: Patrick on September 21, 2006 05:54 PM

So, in other words, Petey's arguments are simply non-responsive to anything in Mayhew's book.

I find that hard to believe.

Posted by: SomeCallMeTim on September 21, 2006 05:56 PM

"So, in other words, Petey's arguments are simply non-responsive to anything in Mayhew's book."

I'm just incredibly suspicious of the utility of political theory of this genre.

Beyond familiarizing the reader with the basic specialized terminology, (a not unworthwhile side-project), I believe it ends up demonstrating far less than a pragmatic study of history would demonstrate.

Theory is handy stuff in the fine arts. But in the pop arts, which is rather close to electoral coalition politics, theory just gets in the way of understanding.

Posted by: Petey on September 21, 2006 06:00 PM

"Not a political scientist here and haven't read Mayhew, but Petey, I think you may be confusing realignment with realignment theory. The theory is the sweeping claim that you agree should be rejected."

So, if I understand correctly, Mayhew is proclaiming that realignment theory is dead. If so, godspeed to Mayhew. It should be dead.

And to repeat myself for the third time before I shut up: the learning material here is in political history, not political theory.

Posted by: Petey on September 21, 2006 06:10 PM

This may be the internet-phile in me speaking, but I just find it hard to take seriously this academic work (Mayhew's) that I can't find anything describing without buying the book.

What is the really strong reason that electoral realignment isn't true?

And yeah, statistically it seems very empircally true. There of course may be some bad theories for why it happens and those can be debunked from time to time, but

Posted by: Tony v on September 21, 2006 06:14 PM

As others have observed, there's really no book to send you to making the case for realignment because post-Mayhew (and indeed for a while before Mayhew; he just pulled it together in a well-written and accessible form) the only people working with it have defined it so far down it's almost meaningless. But the thing is, realignment is only part of a much bigger literature on large-scale political change. "Realignment" and "political change" get conflated because when Key and Burnham originated the theory, realignment was the literature on political change. But people have since branched out.

Off the top of my head, the only halfway decent short, layman-accessible summary of approaches to political change is the first chapter of Plotke, Building a New Democratic Order. But that doesn't cover all of it. I could give you a reading list, but I don't imagine that's what you want.

Petey, you're an idiot. If we want to be specific -- you know the problem with the three doors, with goats behind two of them and a car behind one? You're the guy who keeps insisting it makes no difference whether you switch doors even after someone explains, slowly and using words of one syllable, why it does. Go read Mayhew. Wrestle with his data. If you can come back with a credible response, I might take you seriously.

Posted by: schwa on September 21, 2006 08:19 PM

Tony V, this Wikipedia article does a pretty good job of summarizing the issues and briefly stating Mayhew's position.

Posted by: Chris Conway on September 22, 2006 10:52 AM

Thanks
Best regards
mirc
mirç
mırc
mırç
mircturk
turkmirc
mirc indir
mirc yukle
mirch
mırch
forum
forum
turkforum
turkiyeforum
mirc
turkmirc
toplist
site ekle
pagerank
turkmirc
turkforum
sohbet
türk
karar

Posted by: mirc on November 18, 2007 06:49 AM

mirc
mirç
mırc
mırç
mircturk
turkmirc
turkiyemirc
mircturkiye
mirch
mırch
mirc indir
mirc yükle
mirc yukle
mırc indir
mırc yukle
mirc turkiye
turkiye mirc
turk mirc
mirc turk
türkçe mirc
türkce mirc
türkçe mırc
turkce mirc
turkçe mirc
turkçe mırc
turkce mirc
mirc chat
mirc sohbet
mirc ara
muhabbet
chat
blog
muhabbet
forum
forum
turkiyeforum
türk forum
mirc
mircturk
turkmirc
mirc indir
sohbet
chat
bedava sohbet
turksohbet
turkiye sohbet
sohbet odaları
bedava chat
chat odaları
türk chat
türkiye chat
turkada
turkmirc
mirc inndir
karar

Posted by: chat on January 6, 2008 08:28 AM

Thank you very much for this information.
sohbet
sesli sohbet
chat
muhabbet
mirc
evden eve nakliyat
mirc
mirc
sohbet
kelebek
chat

Posted by: evden eve nakliyat on September 18, 2008 06:15 PM

hikaye

Posted by: seks shop on October 2, 2008 06:42 PM

thanks.

Posted by: sexshop on October 16, 2008 08:25 AM

Thanks Best Regards
mirc
mırc
mırç
mircturk
mirctürk
turkmirc
mirc indir
mırc indir
mirç indir
mirc yükle
mırc yükle
mirc yukle
mırc yukle
mirch
mırch
mirc turk
turk mirc
mırc turk
mircada
mircturkiye
muhabbet
mirc sohbet
mırc sohbet
mirc chat
mırc chat
mırc ındır
mirc ındır
türkçe mirc
turkce mirc
turkçe mırc
turkce mırc
oper mirc
sohbet
forum
chat
online sinema
catlak
türk forum
turk forum
kafkas
kafkasya
ders
siyaset
izmir
karşiyaka
karsiyaka
forum
karsıyaka
sohbet

Posted by: mirc on October 18, 2008 05:56 PM

penis büyütücüler

Posted by: penis büyütücüler on November 7, 2008 09:30 AM

harbiarkadas.com
harbiarkadas.net
harbiarkadas.org
itirafet.org
ebedava.net
elektronikmarket.net
ameribress.com
clitoriacream.net
superspenisbuyutucu.com
megabress.com
rednightperformans.com
performansartirici.com
penisplus.tv
penispluspenisbuyutucu.com
penispluspenisbuyutucu.net
cinselmerkez.com
aseks.net
erotikcamasirlar.com
vajinatr.com
bakirevajina.com
cinselkozmetik.com
kozmetikmedikel.com
eturknet.com
tecavuz.net
yutuvideo.com
ponotubesex.com
laraperuk.com
sackanagimerkezi.com
peruksa.com
perukmarket.com
aseks.com
aloveshop.com
erotikgiyim.com
geciktiricispreyler.com
geciktiricihap.com
geciktiriciler.com
azdirici.com
bayanuyarici.com
fntazialemi.com
fantaziservisi.om
cinselmazemeler.com
cinselfantaziurunleri.com
erotikdakikalar.com
erotikmarketiniz.com
seksmarketiniz.com
sekshatlari.com
erotikdergiler.com
erotikderginiz.com
penisbuyutucuviprx.com
penisbuyutucuvigrx.com
penisbuyutuculer.com
vigrxpenisbuyutucu.com
sismebebekler.com
sismebebekshop.com
yemekeviniz.com
sanalmarketiniz.com
elektronikmarket.net
ebedava.net
kontortr.com
elaydin23.com
turkcellkontorcu.com
aveakontoral.com
vodafonekontoral.com
toptankontorcu.com
cinselkozmetik.com
bayanpartnerler.com
erkekpartnerler.com
kizarkadaslar.com
yonjaarkadas.com
siberalem-siberalem.com
sexpartnerler.com
sekspartnerler.com
erotikpartnerler.com
gencyuz.com
erkekarkadaslar.com
bayanarkadaslar.com
yemekeviniz.com
sanalmarketiniz.com
baskahaber.com
medikalkozmetik.net
kozmetikmedikal.com
zayiflamavediyet.net
zayiflamahapii.com
zayiflamabandii.com
kilovertr.com
zayiflamatr.net
diyettr.com
toksinbandi.net
botoxtr.com
botokstr.com
selulittedavii.com
selulitgiderici.net
selulitkremii.com
catlaktedavisii.com
catlakgiderici.net
catlakkremii.com

sex shop

Posted by: sexshop on November 10, 2008 07:29 AM

from http://www.batterygoshop.co.uk/toshiba/satellite-l100-battery.htm toshiba satellite l100 battery

Posted by: cheap batteries on November 20, 2008 11:06 PM

Posted by: mirc on December 3, 2008 07:45 AM

Thanks you really perfect one writing.I m always follow you.

cinsel sohbet
sohbet odalari kelebek script kelebek sohbet chat sohbet cet çet mirc script muhabbet sohbet radyo kelebekfm mirc kelebek turk sohbet çet sohbet sohbet muhabbet seks sohbet universite sohbet universite chat çet sohbet kelebekfm izmir sohbet kelebek sohbet

Posted by: kelebek on December 3, 2008 03:14 PM

Sesli Chat
SesliChat
Sesli sohbet
Seslisohbet
Sesli Chat
SesliChat
Sesli sohbet
Seslisohbet
Sesli Chat
SesliChat
Sesli sohbet
Seslisohbet
Sesli sohbet
Seslisohbet
Sesli Chat
SesliChat
Sesli Chat
SesliChat
Sesli sohbet
Seslisohbet
Sesli Chat
SesliChat
Sesli sohbet
Seslisohbet
Seslichatpaneli
Seslichat paneli
Seslichat panelleri
Seslichatpanelleri

Posted by: sesli chat on January 16, 2009 06:19 PM

The only thing I would say is that in certain sections diagrams would be helpful in explaining, and more example exercises to try out would be great. Thank you for a fantastic web site!!!

Posted by: Araba Oyunları on January 23, 2009 05:40 PM