Who Gets The Blame?
Dan Drezner literally wrote the book on economic sanctions, so I don't dismiss his opinion lightly, but his optimism about the prospect that a gasoline embargo on Iran will produce the desired results strikes me as off-base:
That said, rejecting the gasoline embargo strikes me as a huge mistake. Iran is also not like North Korea in that there's actually a middle class in Tehran and environs that like their cheap gasoline very much, thank you. I concede that the possibility of a nationalist backlash is there -- but just because Ahmadinejad is painting the conflict as a civilizational one does not mean that Iranians are buying it. There's a decent possibility that of a lot of Iranians taking out their economic frustrations against Ahmadinejad's government -- especially after Iran's government spends so much on Hezbollah.
I mean, I dunno, let's think about it. You're sitting in Teheran, and all of a sudden western nations -- nations that have nuclear weapons -- impose a gasoline embargo and your financial situation goes to shit. These nuclear-armed western powers say the embargo will be lifted as soon as your government disavows uranium enrichment. Your government says they'll disavow uranium enrichment in the context of a regional nuclear-free zone -- i.e., Israel gives up its nuclear weapons. Israel, of course, won't do that and the nuclear-armed gasoline-embargoing western powers won't lean on Israel to do it. Do you blame Teheran, or do you blame Washington, London, and Paris? In principle, it could go either way, but I think that you only need to have very mild anti-Israel sentiments for this to look like the West imposing an unfair double-standard on the nation and people of Iran. Obviously, it's not going to look like that to Americans, but I have a hard time imagining that the "blame Iran first" interpretation of the situation is going to gain a lot of Iranian adherents.
Comments
Well said.
I should add as a footnote that while Iran gives Hezbollah a ton of money relative to Hezbollah's budget, it's not an especially large sum relative to Iran's budget. We're talking about approximately $100 million a year. That's not nothing, but it's hardly a make-or-break economic policy issue, either.
well, I'd give him this much at the very least:
an embargo will do *less* to endear the Ahmedinejad regime to the people, and less to cement it into place permanently, than would be done by any kind of military action (bombings, invasions, etc.)
So by comparison to the people who say "let's drop bombs on them, and then they'll overthrow their elected officials and go all pro-Western!", Drezner is sounding pretty sane.
(this is the 455th installment of "defining deviancy down: the Bush Years").
I think an embargo or blockade starts a shooting war. Even if the UN authorized sanctions or a blockade, I do not believe it would be justified, to the extent I understand the issue. IIRC, the Iranians have officially said that sanctions mean war. I do not think I could blame the Iranians for breaking the blockade by force, but since it would be American sailors in those ships, moral, legal, and emotional questions would be in play.
I honestly believe Iran could, after great losses, win the war.
Along with the above, what exactly would an "embargo on gasoline" entail? Does Venezuela, Iran's ally, ship gasoline to Iran? Would an embargo mean the boarding or sinking of non-compliant ships?
... I think that you only need to have very mild anti-Israel sentiments for this to look like the West imposing an unfair double-standard on the nation and people of Iran.
I dont think you'd need any anti-Israel sentiments to come to that conclusion.
I don't know about Matthew's conclusion - it seems to me to be underestimating the Iranian people... It's almost like a "noble savage" type of argument.
Let's do a thought experiment: In response to the embargo, Iran, Venezuela, other OPEC nations refuse to sell us oil. Now you're sitting in Ohio with gas at $9.00/gal. Who do you blame - Bush or Iran? It seems odd to me to believe that Iranians would blame outsiders but Americans would blame their own leadership.
Na. Ga. Hapn.
China blocks a UN embargo. A NATO embargo merely strenghtens the already burgeoning network of Iranian alliances. A US embargo merely makes us look like assholes.
But the argument is ridiculous from the get-go. Here's the kicker: "There's a decent possibility of a lot of Iranians taking out their economic frustrations against Ahmadinejad's government"?!?
Oh yeah. I forgot. Muslims love to greet Western interventionists as liberators.
These people (ie Drezner and his like) simply cannot ween themselves from an immoral and inneffective political cynicism. Their hackneyed and boring solutions are of two stripes: 1, throw bones to iron fisted rulers who will beat down the domestic population thereby permitting contined access to resources (failing in central and south america), or 2, create enough civil strife and economic suffering that the domestic population ousts the recalcitrant ruler (failing everywhere else).
This is so 20th century. The days of the Contras - atleast in the Middle East - have passed us by.
Matthew misses the asymmetry here. Let's suppose the Iranian people blame the US 80% and the regime 20%. That's still a lot of blame for the regime. Who cares if Iranians are mad at Bush too? It's still bad news for the world's most prolix blogger.
The dynamics remind me of public sector strikes. The union leadership can always afford to *share* the blame among the public with the politicians. It's only if the strike makes the politicians *more* popular that the strike is a failure.
Anyway, the biggest reason to support sanctions is that it isn't bombing. Something has to be done, so better something that won't spark a regional conflagration.
"Let's do a thought experiment: In response to the embargo, Iran, Venezuela, other OPEC nations refuse to sell us oil. Now you're sitting in Ohio with gas at $9.00/gal. Who do you blame - Bush or Iran? It seems odd to me to believe that Iranians would blame outsiders but Americans would blame their own leadership."
Umm - who thinks Americans would blame Bush? Many wouldn't - I think that's the point. Further, it's kinda wierd to think that Iran's government (which institutionally does not have allow full democracy, speech rights, or political development) would not be able to capitalize on these events more than American Government, where we supposedly have a broader spectrum, more free speech, etc. I mean, do you really think that the Iranian government's control over their press and information distribution does not exceed the American government's control?
It's amazing how smart people like Drezner forget how nationalist the Iranians are. Just because the people may not be wacko like their leaders doesn't mean they don't want nukes, especially with Israel's nukes not too far away. The majority of people, for instance, had voted against the BJP in India, but when the US slapped sanctions on India when Vajpayee conducted nuclear tests, it took years and many more problems to pile up until they were thrown out at the ballot box. Iranians lack this mechanism to "throw the bums out," while the young liberals tend to fear bringing more internal, self-inflicted chaos onto Iran after it went through Operation: Ajax and the Islamic Revolution. It's like the difference between living under Mao during the early days of the communist takeover and during the Cultural Revolution. Neither or good, but the latter is much more horrible. Revolutions are messy and spin out of control without free and fair elections and strong democratic institutions to keep things under control. As Drezner's own research has shown, sanctions have been a weak tool when it comes to leading to a regime's collapse. Reagan's engagement (appeasement) with Gorbachev led to perestroika and glasnost, thus leading to the collapse of the USSR. Regimes as illegitimate as Cuba, Libya, Iran, Burma (where the people voted overwhemingly for a Nobel Peace Prize winner instead of Than Shwe and Co.) and others are still around. Only South Africa collapsed, but their main export and monopoly - diamonds - was a luxury good, not a staple like oil that buyers need no matter what.
MAL [angrily]: I don't dismiss his opinion lightly!
THE OPERATIVE: I do...
Matthew misses the asymmetry here. Let's suppose the Iranian people blame the US 80% and the regime 20%.
Uh, already too high. If a bunch of western powers with a history of ham-handed interventionism imposes an embargo to prevent Iran from legally enriching uranium, I really don't see a statistically noticeable backlash against Ahmadinejad. And even if so...
Anyway, the biggest reason to support sanctions is that it isn't bombing.
And UN inspections of WMD programs are the way to avoid invasion, unless a nation decides to invade no matter what. For that matter, sanctions had successfully defanged Saddam Hussein, and the US invaded anyway. Why, when looking at how the US acted in bad faith over Iraq, would they believe that it will stop at sanctions this time?
Not to mention that it wouldn't make any difference. What would a backlash "against Ahmadinejad's government" accomplish? Electing another reform-minded Western-looking president, who can watch while the US calls his country part of the "Axis of Evil" and rejects even back-channel diplomatic contact? Or are we confident of an uprising against the mullahs? Yeah, a US-backed overthrow of the Iranian government could only be viewed as positive by Iranians, as long as they've never picked up a history book.
Bob,
What exactly do you think a war winning tactic for Iran would be? They could launch an über-Mutiny of 1857, which would make things very, very bad for the U.S., but they don't have the naval capability to win in the Gulf, nor would they actually be able to concentrate the units necessary to invade Afghanistan and Iraq (unless, perhaps, an Iranian-directed general Shi'ite revolt wound up overrunning U.S. Air Bases in the region).
Such a war would be a disaster in every sense of the word, but in the end, there would be no Iranian fleet. And an Iraq in the throes of a full-scale "mobilized and marching armies" civil war, but that's another matter...
I'm going to make a wild guess that Iran probably has about as much gas for cars as we have gas-bag 'intellectuals'- but their gas is probably a lot higher octane than our 'intellectuals'.
So what is Drezner saying? That we should stop using gas? Well, if we could do that, we wouldn't be in this mess to begin with.
Reading Drezner is like eating crap food- not only does it make your writing look bloated and unattractive, it causes serious mental problems further down the road.
"What exactly do you think a war winning tactic for Iran would be?"
Well, I am not talking about President McCain signing an unconditional surrender.
Tactics:Some level of oil disruption, some level of uprising in Iraq & the Lebanese border, some (almost any) destruction of US assets...if Iran could get 1 carrier or 10 planes, up US infantry losses to 200 a month, one successful attack on US civilians costing thousands of lives. Bush's political problems can become hell very quickly, to the point he resigns. There are many people who think Bush can't even start an air war.
Strategic Win:Regime Survival, PR victory, retain right & possibility of nuclear weapons, increase Shia dominance in Iraq & Lebanon, decreased US profile & influence in the region, all Iran has to do is not strategically lose.
Like Vietnam.
"but they don't have the naval capability to win in the Gulf"
Good grief. No, they can't destroy the US Navy. But losing one major ship would be like Khartoum. One successful terrorist attack in the US would be Dien Bien Phu. Oil over $100 a barrel for a year...
mds,
Iran is actually a quasi-democracy. And Iranian opinion is divided on the subject of Ahmadinejad. If it looks like war, a lot of people will think he's your man. If there are sanctions, not so much.
If sanctions never work, why is the dominant wing of Hamas moving towards a bloc with Fatah and recognition of Israel?
If it looks like war, a lot of people will think he's your man. If there are sanctions, not so much.
And? The president of Iran doesn't run the country. Apparently that's not clear enough: the president of Iran doesn't run the country. The current occupant is an excellent demagogue, with some authority over domestic policy, but he doesn't run the country. The clerics are the ones who would have to be overthrown to guarantee societal changes. And again, even if the president of Iran had more power, replacing him with someone more pro-Western does no good if the US will not engage in honest diplomacy, and keeps screeching about how Iran is Evil Incarnate. Iran only has to look next door to see what good acceding to US demands about armaments gets you: invaded.
If sanctions never work, why is the dominant wing of Hamas moving towards a bloc with Fatah and recognition of Israel?
Because the Bush administration has no interest in invading Palestine, and so the sanctions are actually meant to produce a change in behavior, not used as step one in a run-up to war. Sanctions can work, as I said. Saddam Hussein was disarmed by them. Lot of good it did him, too, as the Bush administration shrieked about mushroom clouds and the failure of sanctions.
Oh, Pithlord, you're usually better than this. I never claimed "sanctions never work"; I claimed that sanctions don't work when a country is hellbent on bombing or invasion no matter what the sanctioned party does.
mirc
mirç
mırc
mırç
mircturk
turkmirc
turkiyemirc
mircturkiye
mirch
mırch
mirc indir
mirc yükle
mirc yukle
mırc indir
mırc yukle
mirc turkiye
turkiye mirc
turk mirc
mirc turk
türkçe mirc
türkce mirc
türkçe mırc
turkce mirc
turkçe mirc
turkçe mırc
turkce mirc
mirc chat
mirc sohbet
mirc ara
muhabbet
chat
blog
muhabbet
forum
forum
turkiyeforum
türk forum
mirc
mircturk
turkmirc
mirc indir
sohbet
chat
bedava sohbet
turksohbet
turkiye sohbet
sohbet odaları
bedava chat
chat odaları
türk chat
türkiye chat
turkada
turkmirc
mirc inndir
karar
porno
sex
hikaye
sex
mirc
hikaye
porno
sex
sex shop
seks shop
güzel sözler
mirc
mirc
porno
güzel sözler
hikaye
mirc
hikayeler
mirc
kelebek
elektronik sigara
elektronik sigara
elektronik sigara
sex
porno
hikaye
sex
porno
mirc
mirc
seks shop
hikaye
hikaye
porno
sex
hikaye
sex
hikaye
porno
sex
sex shop
seks shop
güzel sözler
mirc
porno
güzel sözler
hikaye
mirc
hikayeler
mirc
kelebek
elektronik sigara
elektronik sigara
elektronik sigara
sex
porno
hikaye
sex
porno
mirc
seks shop
hikayeler
hikaye
sex
hikayetube
sex |
porno |
hikaye |
sex hikayeleri |
sex hikaye |
sex porno |
seks shop |
geciktirici |
penis büyütücü |
hikaye |
hikaye |
sex |
videohikaye.com |
sex |
porno |
hikayetube.com |
porno |
mirc |
yüzük |
güzel sözler |
elektronik sigara |
pilli sigara |
elektronik sigara |
elektronik sigara |
elektronik sigara
Plaket
Seks Shop - Seks Shop - Penis Büyütücü
Plaket
Kostüm
Fotokopi
Matbaa
Fuar
Reklam Ajansı
Evden Eve Nakliyat
diyet ürünleri
Thanks Best Regards
mirc
mırc
mırç
mircturk
mirctürk
turkmirc
mirc indir
mırc indir
mirç indir
mirc yükle
mırc yükle
mirc yukle
mırc yukle
mirch
mırch
mirc turk
turk mirc
mırc turk
mircada
mircturkiye
muhabbet
mirc sohbet
mırc sohbet
mirc chat
mırc chat
mırc ındır
mirc ındır
türkçe mirc
turkce mirc
turkçe mırc
turkce mırc
oper mirc
sohbet
forum
chat
online sinema
catlak
türk forum
turk forum
kafkas
kafkasya
ders
siyaset
izmir
karşiyaka
karsiyaka
forum
karsıyaka
sohbet
penis büyütücüler
harbiarkadas.com
harbiarkadas.net
harbiarkadas.org
itirafet.org
ebedava.net
elektronikmarket.net
ameribress.com
clitoriacream.net
superspenisbuyutucu.com
megabress.com
rednightperformans.com
performansartirici.com
penisplus.tv
penispluspenisbuyutucu.com
penispluspenisbuyutucu.net
cinselmerkez.com
aseks.net
erotikcamasirlar.com
vajinatr.com
bakirevajina.com
cinselkozmetik.com
kozmetikmedikel.com
eturknet.com
tecavuz.net
yutuvideo.com
ponotubesex.com
laraperuk.com
sackanagimerkezi.com
peruksa.com
perukmarket.com
aseks.com
aloveshop.com
erotikgiyim.com
geciktiricispreyler.com
geciktiricihap.com
geciktiriciler.com
azdirici.com
bayanuyarici.com
fntazialemi.com
fantaziservisi.om
cinselmazemeler.com
cinselfantaziurunleri.com
erotikdakikalar.com
erotikmarketiniz.com
seksmarketiniz.com
sekshatlari.com
erotikdergiler.com
erotikderginiz.com
penisbuyutucuviprx.com
penisbuyutucuvigrx.com
penisbuyutuculer.com
vigrxpenisbuyutucu.com
sismebebekler.com
sismebebekshop.com
yemekeviniz.com
sanalmarketiniz.com
elektronikmarket.net
ebedava.net
kontortr.com
elaydin23.com
turkcellkontorcu.com
aveakontoral.com
vodafonekontoral.com
toptankontorcu.com
cinselkozmetik.com
bayanpartnerler.com
erkekpartnerler.com
kizarkadaslar.com
yonjaarkadas.com
siberalem-siberalem.com
sexpartnerler.com
sekspartnerler.com
erotikpartnerler.com
gencyuz.com
erkekarkadaslar.com
bayanarkadaslar.com
yemekeviniz.com
sanalmarketiniz.com
baskahaber.com
medikalkozmetik.net
kozmetikmedikal.com
zayiflamavediyet.net
zayiflamahapii.com
zayiflamabandii.com
kilovertr.com
zayiflamatr.net
diyettr.com
toksinbandi.net
botoxtr.com
botokstr.com
selulittedavii.com
selulitgiderici.net
selulitkremii.com
catlaktedavisii.com
catlakgiderici.net
catlakkremii.com
sex shop
Post A Comment