NBA Predictions
Well, the season starts tonight, so I think I ought to go on record with some predictions so we can look back at how laughably wrong I was a few months hence.
First off, the easy question -- division winners. You've got Phoenix in the Pacific, Denver in the Northwest, Dallas in the Southwest, Miami in the Southeast, New Jersey in the Atlantic (they should really change this to Northeast, I think), and Chicago in the Central. A shocking four out of six divisions seem to me to have overwhelming favorites. The Southwest is really a tossup, but since I've got to pick I like Dallas because I think they're a bit more injury-resistant and there's a decent chance San Antonio will drop some regular season games they should have won because someone or other was out with some kind of problem.
The Central offers the biggest dose of controversy here. I think a lot of people are badly overrating the post-Ben Pistons. The team was set to slip anyway because of aging (McDyess, Other Wallace), the poor odds of Billups being quite as good as he was last year, and the ever-present risk that their blessed injury-free streak would come to an end. Subtract Wallace -- one of their top two players -- and I think you're looking at a serious step backwards. Meanwhile, I think Chicago will take a big step forward and Cleveland will do about what they did last year (note that last season they overperformed relative to expected wins, so even small steps forward may not improve their record) and finish second.
Rounding off the postseason roster in the East, along with the division champs, will be Detroit, Cleveland, Washington, Orlando, and Milwaukee. In the West, I think we'll see the division winners joined by San Antonio (with the #2 seed), Houston, LA Clippers, LA Lakers, and Utah.
For overall champion ... hm ... I think San Antonio's the best team in the league, but Miami's easier path through the postseason actually makes them more likely to win. Meanwhile, my gambling observations are that Miami for Eastern Conference Champion is undervalued on TradeSports at 31.9; I think I'd definitely take them even at 40. In the West, I think Houston is underpriced at 6.8; I don't like the Rockets' chances of staying healthy and playing cohesively, but I like them better than number.
Comments
I don't pay much attention to the east. I went to the site and saw Dallas 28, SA 26, Phoenix 25. I am ok with that. But Dallas could become really dominant. Youth, depth, speed, and Johnson and Cuban are going to get really frigging mean. The stars aren't pretty, but they are determined.
Boston vs Showtime.
As an initial observation, I find it interesting that you pick Chicago to win the Central since, as I recall, your reaction to the Ben Wallace signing was basically "that didn't address anything that Chicago really needed (i.e., offense)." You must really think the signing detracts from the Pistons, since the other things (possible injuries, Chauncey not being as good as last year) couldn't result in THAT much of a drop off from last year, could they?
What's your prediction for how many games the Wizards will win this year? More than 45?
West Reg (in order): Dallas, Spurs, Phx, Clips, Lakers (I know, I know), Rockets, Denver, Utah.
West Finals: Dallas over Spurs.
East Reg.(in order): Miami, CLE, Det., Chicago, NJ, Indiana, DC, Orlando.
East Finals: CLE over Chicago
Finals: Dallas.
(That seems really crazy, but I'm not sure why.)
as I recall, your reaction to the Ben Wallace signing was basically "that didn't address anything that Chicago really needed (i.e., offense).
Mostly, I decided this analysis was wrong and the Chicago defense was more improvable than I'd given credit for. Last years' Bulls were fantastic in terms of FG% defense, but their efficiency wasn't actually all that hot since they fouled like crazy. Big Ben will, in my view, be a huge help here and the Chicago defense will be absolutely stifling in a way it wasn't really last year.
But also, yes, I think Wallace leaving Detroit is giant, giant blow to the Pistons.
What's your prediction for how many games the Wizards will win this year? More than 45?
I'd say around 45. Expected W/L last season was 46 and I don't think anything's fundamentally changed.
i'm just not sure why people think dallas has turned such a corner, particularly given their collapse in the finals (which is gonna weigh on them at some point). phx or the clippers or a healthy houston or the spurs could all very easily knock them off, and i also don't see dallas pulling out another tremendously close series against the spurs if it comes to that.
as for the east, hard to even guess. i spose miami's some sort of favorite, but they see more like a team that had a good run at a good time against a fairly weak east. given another year, i think alot of teams in the east could take them, particularly with shaq a year older.
Age begins to catch up with Miami this year. The Bulls and Cavs aren't quite ready for prime time. The surprise finalist coming out of the east is the Nets.
Marcus Williams finally gets Kidd down to 30 minutes per, Carter is in his option year and will play like it, Jefferson hits his prime, Kristic continues to improve, Nachbar (who fits perfectly in their system) and Wright (who seems to have turned a corner after a non-entity rookie year) are big contributors off of the bench.
They're not a great team - a bit thin up front, a bit short on experience on the bench - but with no dominant team in the east, and the league transitioning from size to speed, this looks like a pretty good set-up for them.
Hmmm, wonder what Tradesports has them at?
Yeah, the problem with the Nets is the front line; if the Nets can get to the Finals, the Wizards aren't that far behind. Also, their unis (or maybe their arena) are so fucking ugly.
They're not a great team - a bit thin up front, a bit short on experience on the bench - but with no dominant team in the east, and the league transitioning from size to speed, this looks like a pretty good set-up for them.
Well, the Nets don't have size, but I'm not sure they have speed either. Last year they were 18th in the league in pace factor.
Miami owns the Nets. They are 8-1 in playoff games against the Nets the last two years. There is no reason to believe there will be any difference this year.
For the record, I'm not the one who brought up the Nets...
Matthew's right that last year's Nets were not a fast-paced team. They had changed a lot since the run-n-gun Nets of KMart/RJ/Kittles. I think they will run more this season - their younger talent (Williams, Wright, Boone) demands it, but we'll see.
That being said, the Nets have a chance to be go far this season for reason stated above - the Heat and Pistons are on the way down, and there's no reason to think that the Cavs and Bulls will be better than the Nets. But it all depends on whether the younger guys can provde consistent bench production, since their pathetic bench was their biggest flaw last year.
There are a few people who see the Nets coming out of the East - Jack McCallum of SI, and Sir Charles on TNT. As a best case scenario, yeah, the Nets could go to the finals.
Also, as to the Bulls, despite tonight's game (I get home and they're already up 30?!?!), I don't thin the Bulls can go to the Finals without a scorer. Their best scorer - Gordon - didn't even average 17 PPG last year. I can't see them winning a lot with Gordon as their biggest threat down the stretch.
Al: I want your league picks. And where are Pooh's picks? (And, yeah 30!?!)
108-66 is a bad argument for winning a 7 game series. Not that I have a friggin clue.
My only prediction is that the Hawks will still be the second best basketball team in Atlanta.
Chicago defense will be absolutely stifling in a way it wasn't really last year.
Holy shit -- I was totally right about this. 108-66! Fuck Miami.
I'm enjoying the Suns' 4th quarter meltdown.
Go Lakers.
Okay...I missed all of Lakers-Suns until about five minutes ago...wtf? LA is winning without Kobe? Did Nash and Amare bludgeon each other to death at halftime or something?
Hrmmm, my picks, my picks...
Division winners:
Jersey by default
I think Cleveland breaks through in the Central - Pistons go about 50-32, as do the Bulls who will go weeks without scoring (tonight excepted, clearly), and may have chemistry problems if/when Skiles starts to wear on people (looking at you, Ben Gordon)
Miami edges Orlando in the SE. Dwight Howard is makes 3rd team all NBA this year.
Denver, who intrigue me (I'm interested to see what the Jr Smith experience turns out to be)
Clippers should win, but the Lakers probably will as the Clips, being the Clips will lose 4-8 games that will make you say 'huh?'
Mavs, because the Spurs will win 54 games and not really care about the Reg season - no way Yao and McGrady both play 75 games, so they won't win the toughest division out there.
Conference finals:
Lakera vs. Spurs
Cavs vs. Heat (remember that the Bulls/Clippers biggest strength, depth, matters less in the playoffs)
Spurs over the Cavs in 6 in the finals.
Some thoughts - Matty, don't be surprised if the Zards are lotto bound.
I'd like to say good things about Utah, but their backcourt is...well, it's Deron Williams and Gordan Giricek
I have a bad feeling about Amare, and by extension, the Suns. Not finding a way to keep Tim Thomas will hurt. Lots.
Jalen Rose will help either the Suns or the Heat.
Hey - its supposed to be Matthew on the spot, not the commenters.
Playoff teams in the East:
Miami
NJ
Cleveland
Detroit
Chicago
Indiana
Orlando
NY
Playoff teams in the West:
Dallas
Houston
Lakers
Denver
SA
Phoenix
Minnesota
Clippers
NJ over Miami in East finals (a guy can hope)
Dallas over Houston in West finals
Dallas wins NBA title
What the heck - why not pick an upset - Knicks to playoffs? If I'm right, I get to crow; if I'm wrong, I get called an idiot on one additional thread.
I also think people are overlooking the T-Wolves. Their glaring weakness was at PG, and the Mike James pickup should be huge.
Also, I'm with Pooh - I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Wizards in the lottery. I think the Jefferies loss may be bigger than you thought in the off season, and I'd be surprised if Gilbert scores 29 PPG again.
I'd be surprised if Gilbert scores 29 PPG again
Why should Agent Zero regress? He's only 24 years old and has improved every season he's been in the Association so far.
I don't disagree. I guess I just don't understand how he averaged 29 PPG last year. My perception is colored, I guess, by the fact that the games I saw him in, he just wasn't that good (he was flat-out bad in the two games he played in against NJ, and the one game the Wizards beat the Nets, he didn't play). I guess I just view him as a low- to mid-20 PPG scorer whose last year was an aberration.
My picks:
Playoff teams in the East:
Detroit (they were so much better than anyone else last season, they could be 10 games worse and still be the best team in the East)
Chicago
Cleveland
Miami (Haslem's Injury will hurt, and Zo won't be as clutch)
Washington (I don't love their roster but their expected W/L was so much better than their record last year they have to improve)
NJ (Can Kidd stay healthy for a full season?)
Orlando
Milwaukee
That leave Indiana on the outside looking in which seems unlikely, but I don't like their PG situation and I don't like Harrington.
Playoff teams in the West:
Dallas
SA
Phoenix (Addressed their depth problems)
Houston (should be higher. they've been the sexy pick for years, but I think the battier pick-up will pay huge dividends)
Clippers
Lakers
Denver (they just seem to have bad karma)
Seattle (sentimental pick, I don't actually think they'll make it).
Cleveland over Miami in East finals (I'm betting that, in the playoffs, the team with the best player advances)
SA over Houston in West finals (this seems unlikely, but if I've picked the seedings right, I like SA over phoenix, and I think Houston could upset Dallas)
SA wins NBA title
I also think people are overlooking the T-Wolves. Their glaring weakness was at PG, and the Mike James pickup should be huge.
No way. Classic great stats on a bad team guy. Yes he's an upgrade, but they have at best 3 legit dudes in KG, Davis and James. (I know, blah blah, Eddie Griffin, blah blah Troy Hudson. Please. Mark Blount? HAhahahahaha) The fact that losing Rashad McCants (microfracture? Ick.) hurts them badly says enough about where they were to begin with.
Their bigger weakness has been inside, and has been for years.
The fact that losing Rashad McCants (microfracture? Ick.) hurts them badly says enough about where they were to begin with.
That's just mean. Accurate, but still mean.
I guess I should defer to the Minnesota guy, but isn't the loss of McCants offset by the drafting of Foye? As far as I can tell, they have a nice 3 guard rotation of James, Foye and Jaric (who isn't a good starter, but should be an adequate backup). True they lack inside presence - but I'm just predicting they'll make the playoffs, not that they'll actally go somewhere. I note, though, that NONE of the ESPN analysts predict they'll make the playoffs - better for me, I suppose: maybe they'll trade KG to Jersey...
Crap, completely forgot about Foye. Yeah, he'll add something, but I thought they would have been better off with B.Roy (who I love. Joe Dumars mark-II)
They're still a one-dimensional, jump shooting team, with no enforcer for KG. If ever a guy needed a Charles Oakley type...
Marko Jaric? HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHA (oops, sorry...) He's awful.
No way they make the playoffs, who are they beating out from
Dallas
SanAn
Phx
LAC
LAL
Den
Hou
Mem
plus, Utah is better, GS is better, Sacto might still be pesky, as will NOK.
Not to go Jim Mora...but yes, I'll go Jim Mora. Playoffs? At the end of the year, they are who we though they were (Thanks, Denny...)
Well, they can beat Memphis this year, probably GS, and possibly Utah (depending on health).
Well, that locks them in to the all-important 10 seed out West...
Pau Gasol-less Memphis? Yup. Perhaps Kobe-less (is really OK, or what) Lakers? Maybe.
I guess I just view him as a low- to mid-20 PPG scorer whose last year was an aberration.
The numbers don't lie, baby! Seriously, though, he's really, really fast, was helped a ton by the new hand-check interpretation, plays a ton of minutes, and shoot free throws well. He'll be scoring lots of points for years to come.
He also scores 5-8 more ppg then he perhaps 'should' because the rest of his team, er, sucks. On a bad enough team, Brendan Heywood would be a 20ppg guy. (See Campbell, Tony).
Chicago 108, Miami 66.
A month or so ago Detroit's coach Flip Saunders said that Ben Wallace was "somebody else's problem now". Yeah, right.
Thanks
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