Obama-rama

Experience against the Republicans is hardly necessary -- a practicing civil rights lawyer who has to argue in court on a regular basis is used to far more intense intellectual warfare than any politician -- and someone as introspective as Obama doesn't take anything personally (watching him here in Illinois slough off some of the attacks during the Bobby Rush campaign against him was impressive).

"There are several second-term red or purple state governors any one of whom might make a good presidential nominee but none of whom seem to have a realistic shot precisely because party elders (the dread "Washington insiders") seem to lazy to offer any exposure to anyone who's not either a Senator or else the governor of Virginia".

Not really; Warner's the governor with all the press because he's almost the only viable governor. All current Democratic governors are in their first term, except for Mike Easley, Tom Vilsack, and Ruth Ann Minner. If we count governors who will be in their second term by 2008, we can add Bredesen, Baldacci, Freudenthal, Henry, Richardson, Napolitano, Rendell, Doyle, Kulongoski, Granholm, Blanco, Blagojevich. Due to low popularity, we can drop Kulongoski, Blago, Doyle, Baldacci, and Blanco. Due to issue stances, we can drop Bredesen (gutting Tenncare) and Henry (pro-life). And Granholm is not eligible. That leaves Rendell, Freudenthal, Napolitano, and Richardson. Since Minner represents a blue state, there are in practice six governors who fit the bill (Richardson, Vilsack, Easley, Napolitano, Freudenthal, Rendell).

The Democratic bench is pretty thin right now, which is why Edwards and Clark can be viable in the pre-primary phases even though they don't hold office at the moment. It will be strong in '12 and '16, but not now.

Anybody who would nominate this man for president in 2008 is fucking high.

I don't think its fair to say that Kerry handled Republican attacks really badly. In a lot of ways, he ran a pretty good campaign. He made a tactical decision to try to be more positive than them in order to appeal to independents. I thought then, and I think now, that it was the wrong decision. I think he realizes now that it was the wrong way to go, and would do much better if given another chance. Also, I doubt any of the other primary candidates in '04 would have done better against Bush.

I saw Obama interviewed by Charlie Rose the other day, and I was extremely impressed. He's the only one of the widely mentioned candidates who I would favor over Kerry. Let's hope Obama combines the intelligence and wisdom of Gore with a personality that appeals more to the general audience. I'm even willing to put up with all the Religious mumbo jumbo if that's what it takes.

The Republican attacks on Kerry and Gore worked largely because they were successfully portrayed as effete elitists who were trying to masquerade as men of people. However one of Obama’s strengths is that he naturally exudes authenticity. He seems uniquely comfortable in his own skin, and that’s one of the things that gives him a moral authority and likeability that seems to cross partisan lines. He’s going to be pretty hard to demonize or caricature.

"a primary campaign against other Democrats just isn't the same as facing off against the GOP. "

For one thing, Democrats probably won't try to make an issue of Obama's blackness in the primary. Republicans will unleash a furious storm of third party racism in the general election, which will no doubt be descried by the Republican candidate as unrepresentitive of his views (but never directly condemned).

There is a reason we have only one black senator. A sizable minority still hate black people very much, and a majority are still uncomfortable with the idea that they exist.

I'm of two minds about this. The first black presidential candidate is pretty much guaranteed to lose regardless of the respective abilities of him and his opponent. The greater our national shame over that election, the more likely it is that we will come to terms with our prejudice. But the next presidency is going to be very important, and I'd hate to see it sacrificed like that. Still, giving in to the threats of racism is essentially participating in racism, so I am still undecided about an Obama run.

It's worth mentioning that he did have a tangle with the GOP, specifically that episode where John McCain blasted him in an "open letter" about his supposedly infirm commitment to campaign finance reform (because Obama went back and sided with his party rather than work with McCain). I think we were all a little frightened about that (specifically because McCain's got a lot of cred, and Obama's often regarded as the party's future). Obama handled it OK, I think, under the circumstances. But he didn't really throw any jabs back, he just basically tried to ingratiate himself.

> I saw Obama interviewed by Charlie Rose
> the other day, and I was extremely impressed.

Obama has never been question intensely by an actual liberal about the way the Radical Right has spent the last 20 years dragging the perceived "center" all the way over to the 90% right mark; whether or not Some Democrats are assisting with that process by continuing to "compromise" with the non-existant "traditional Republicans" thus moving the "compromise center" farther and farther to the right; and finally whether or not he is assisting Some Democrats in that process. Until I hear a straight-up answer from him on that topic, no dice.

If he really wants to be President, rather than a Presidental candidate, he should run for Governor of Illionis and serve a full term plus reelection. That would give him some real experience to work with. We don't need another easily-manipulable GWB in the White House at the mercy of whomever his personal Dick Cheney turns out to be.

Cranky

A sizable minority still hate black people very much

Maybe so, but these people are almost all Republicans anyway. They left the Democratic party a long time ago. Republican appeals to racism are just as likely to backfire, because they would turn off moderates.

I agree with Matt.

At the moment Obama is no more than "flavor of the month".

Dems should also stop looking for a "savior candidate", a no baggage, squeaky clean, articulate, charismatic JFK clone. He doesn't exist and even if he did the in a presidential election the Right Wing Noise Machine would turn him into a flip flopping, soft on terrorism, "doesn't know who he is" unelectable candidate.

Despite all the press adulation Obama has received I still think Gore or Clinton or Kerry would make better candidates. They have all been unfairly tarred and feathered. They know what the GOP smear machine is capable of and hopefully will have a strategy ready to fight back. Whereas Obama is babe in the woods. When the smear campaign begins he won't know what hit him.

I see the outlines of the 2008 campaign. The MSM is enamoured with John McCain and will most likely help him win the GOP nomination. The Right Wing Noise Machine will once again go after the Dem nominee, defining him/her as "liar", "flip flopper", "soft on terrorism" etc. If Dems are going to win this game they will need a nominee who understands how to play this game.

"However one of Obama’s strengths is that he naturally exudes authenticity."............."He’s going to be pretty hard to demonize or caricature."

This is a naive view.

The word "authentic" has become a favorite among the pundit class. Joe Klein uses it all the time. The term has become meaningless. It amounts to a pundit saying I like so and so. Remember how these people kept calling Bush "authentic", how they all wanted to have a beer with him. Is there a bigger phony than Bush?

I have no idea if Obama is authentic or not. The word has become meaningless anyway. All I know is that by the time the Right Wing Noise Machine is finished with him he will be seen by the public as a phony, elitist, Godless, out of touch politician.

I think its a mistake to worry about how an individual candidate would "handle" Republican attacks. The real issue is how the Democratic Party handles Republican attacks on its nominee, and while there is obviously still reason for concern on this score, who exactly the nominee is just doesn't matter that much vis a vis the fightback. Consider, for one thing, that no one ever wonders about a contemporary Republican cadidate whether they would have the visciousness necessary to launch dishonest smears of their opponents; no one even raises this point about Condi Rice, who's never run a campaign. For the Democrats to allow individual nominees and their personal advisors to make decisions all on their own (in effect, to force them to make decisions all on their own) about how, whether, and when to respond to GOP smears is just a huge strategic mistake. Attacks on the Dem nominee are attacks on the Democractic brand, and need to be forcefully confronted as such. In large part, that means the Democratic party needs to have its own institutional capacity to respond to GOP smears on its nominee, separate from its nominee's campaign. Again, its almost never the GOP nominee who launches the smear, but a front group of GOP operatives.

Rather than worry about all the reasons Obama might not be the ideal nominee, we ought to be doing what is needed to make the Democratic party the kind of institution that can effectively take advantage of a hugely popular and charismatic individual - like Obama - and provide him with the communications, GOTV, policy and legislative support he would need to be a winning candidate and an effective President. Its ridiculous to think that an individual is somehow going to come up with this stuff on his or her own, or that it is somehow in the interest of the Democratic party to allow individuals to come up with that stuff on their own, but still somehow expect that the public will have a sense of what the Democratic Party - as such - stands for.

Mushiness is the inevitable consequence of a mindset which responds to an Obama by cataloging all the things he can't do, rather than seeking to fully exploit all the things he can do for the good of country and the party.

The 2004 primary process basically existed to vet one guy - Howard Dean. And when he didn't make the cut, Kerry was basically the next guy in line.

The 2008 primary is likely to follow the same pattern, except that Hillary will be the front-runner under the microscope. Primary voters will study her every move and decide whether she is or isn't up to the job. But if they decide she isn't, I see no reason to expect the process to apply similar scrutiny to the runner-up. We could yet again wind up with a nominee who hasn't been thoroughly vetted.

Bush isn't a phony. I think he wholeheartedly believes whatever he's saying at the moment he says it. That's part of what made him seem "authentic", and helped him to win elections. Unfortunately, the fact that he falls for his own spin is part what has made him so bad at governing...

" Republican appeals to racism are just as likely to backfire, because they would turn off moderates."

There is no backlash even in state elections. It is unrealistic to think there would be one in a national election. Besides, it wouldn't be a Republican spouting the racism. It would be a "swift-boat-veterans-for-racism" group. Most likely, it won't even be directed against Obama. It will be about concern for "crime" or "drugs" being used to demonize blacks in general.

Perhaps there would be recriminations afterward, but not during the campaigin. Many so-called moderates are of the opinion that they have nothing against black people, they just don't like to be reminded that they exist.

Jesus Christ, people. Obama has done nothing. Obama has done nothing. OBAMA HAS DONE NOTHING. In what way is he qualified to actually run the executive branch of the United States? Are we going to go back to the arguments of the Republican party circa 2000? Gosh, he doesn't need experience - he'll listen to super-smart advisors! And if you don't think Democratic policy figures can't give stupid advice, and that smart Democrats won't follow that advice, you have been comatose for the last six years.

I'd just like to urge everybody (here and elsewhere) to refrain from 'talking down' the potential Democratic candidates for 2008. I'd really, really like to have the at-large voting public see the 2008 candidate as electable this time, and not have them thinking "Hell, even the Dems themselves think candidate X is no good, for reasons A, B, and C." (Like what happened in 200 and 2004.)

Obama...not my first choice. But I have no doubt he'd be a million times better than whoever the Republicans come up with. Ditto Hilary.

So please, please, please tread lightly. Talk up your guy or girl all you want. But don't talk down the others, One of them could end up your standard-bearer.

Obama has the magnestism that Dems so love and Hillary (and in my oponion everyone else except possibly Edwards) frankly lacks. GOTV is a huge problem with Dems. Anti-Bush is a big rallying cry for Dems and will still be in '08. To have a Pro-Dem rallying cry alonside that will do wonders for getting and keeping Dems motivated through the election.

Christmas: Obama has done nothing? He was only elected two years ago, and he's in the minority legislative caucus. What do you expect him to do? For that matter, what did John F. Kennedy ever do in the Senate? What did Bobby Kennedy ever do in the Senate? What did Jimmy Carter ever do as governor? What has Ned Lamont ever done? Name the presidential candidate you're supporting. What have they ever done?

Matt: If experience with and ability to stand up to GOP attacks is the main criteria you're looking at, then Hillary Clinton would be by far the best person we could choose. She's been living it non-stop for 15 years, and she's still standing rather remarkably well.

Full disclosure: I like Edwards the best right now, but if Obama does end up getting in the race, I'll have a tough choice in front of me. And yes, I can live with Hillary as the nominee.

> He was only elected two years ago,
> and he's in the minority legislative
> caucus. What do you expect him to do?

Um, how about standing up loud, firm, and _proud_ and using some of his charisma and political capital to oppose the Torture Bill from Day 1? Instead of waffling for 7 weeks and then "making up his mind" _that morning_? So his only on-record statement came during the day on CSPAN?

If a guy who wins Illinois 70-30 can't take a stand against torture, what exactly can/will he take a stand against? The first time Senator McCain tries to back the Obama Administration into a corner with the help of Fox News Obama will fight back how exactly? The guy hid in his office on the issue of _torture_ for gaia's sake!

Cranky

Obama has done nothing? He was only elected two years ago

THAT'S THE POINT. He shouldn't even be up for consideration for '08. He has nothing to distinguish himself but a pretty speaking style and an appealing backstory. That is not enough to make him a good candidate, and it sure as hell isn't enough to make him a good president.

Experience actually does matter. Having a coherent, compelling political philosophy really does matter. If there is nothing else you can take away from the Bush years, it's that having someone in charge who's been around for a while and actually knows what they're doing is very, very important.

Experience is pretty over-rated. Bush had 2 terms as Texas governor, but even his handlers -- depending upon the issue -- would pass off the governor's office as not the real power in Texas. So, for 8 years Bush held an honorary post. Basically, he was elected because his handlers deceived the country about his positions and because his name was "Bush".

Bush was governor for six years, not eight. And given that the man's major duties as governor consisted of consuming oxygen, he's not exactly the counterexample you want to indicate that "experience is overrated."

Look: the pro-Obama argument comes down to the notion that there are some people who are magically born with some natural capacity to lead, and that this natural capacity to lead is recognized not through what they've accomplished or what policies they advocate but through their charisma - i.e., the impressive manner or bearing in which they hold themselves. There is a long tradition that holds to this ideal of leadership, but that tradition is called monarchy.

Obama hasn't even served a single term as U.S. senator, and before that he had no major political position ever. The fact that he's talking about the presidency already makes me think less of him as a person. He's letting his ambition get in the way of his ability to learn and grow by exploring where he is.

It is always possible to answer any argument about being unqualified by referring to Bush (he can't possibly be less qualified than Bush -- true, but is that your standard), or even Kennedy. But Kennedy had more national political experience than Obama (he served in the House before the Senate). Not only that, but Kennedy's political inexperience let him get rolled by the military bureaucracy on all kinds of important decisions early in his term.

Are we going to go back to the arguments of the Republican party circa 2000?

That election was a real disaster for them, wasn't it?

Amusing, this ongoing rah rah about Obama. It is always amazing how fast not very serious contentions become conventional wisdom. Obama is by all evidence a great guy, but I cannot see how under any scenerio he becomes the dem nominee. set aside the fact that he seem to lack the fighting spirit that usually stands one in good stead when running for president. The tangle with MCain is one minor case in point. He is like most democratic politicians, following the dlc failed playbook they all imagine is the mark for successful presidential electoral strategy. With all due respect to the good Senator, this seem to me a lot of noise, signifying nothing.

http://www.vote-smart.org/voting_category.php?can_id=BS030017

Look, what the Dems need now is not some triangulating, middle-of-the-road type like I think Obama has been his two years in the Senate. I've been disappointed at a number of his votes (Patriot bill, Rice and Negroponte appointments, credit card legislation) and except for giving a good speech, I don't understand why progressives are so fascinated by the man.

With Republicans in virtual free-fall, '08 may be a historic opportunity for a progressive candidate to make it to the White House. It will not be 1992 again. The world has changed. We really need a candidate of some conviction, and there is nothing in Obama's record that tells me he has what is needed.

That election was a real disaster for them, wasn't it?

I wouldn't recommend imitating the GOP's 2000 election strategy, given that its success ultimately depended on friendly justices on the Supreme Court aborting the actual election process.

And the argument wasn't simply that Obama would be a bad candidate, although he would be. It was that he'd make for a bad president. The GOP argument in 2000 was that Bush's inexperience didn't matter, since he could "rely on instinct" and "listen to smart people." The presidency that followed from that plan has been an unqualified disaster.

how about standing up loud, firm, and _proud_ and using some of his charisma and political capital to oppose the Torture Bill from Day 1? Instead of waffling for 7 weeks and then "making up his mind" _that morning_? So his only on-record statement came during the day on CSPAN?

Well, that eliminates everybody in the Democratic Party then. Guess we'll have to forfeit the '08 election since no one passes muster.

> Well, that eliminates everybody in the
> Democratic Party then

Not sure what you mean by that Chris. Almost alone among those of the party-not-in-power Obama has the ability to summon the TV cameras and the adoring MSM reporters at the drop of a phone call. His every public speech is excerpted for the national news. He could have used this to take a firm stance against torture, but he chose not to do so. If he won't use his abilities to take a firm stance against torture, what exactly _will_ he take a firm stance against? Not cuttting Social Security more than 90%? Awarding Grover Norquist the Medal of Honor?

Cranky

dude, it's Barack. With a "c".

He's running for vice president, not president.

It's too early for a Generation X president.

That's why Cameron won't beat Brown either.

Excuse me? He voted against the bill. And he did deliver a strongly-worded speech against it on the Senate floor. Arguably later than it should have been (although it had been in negotiation with McCain and the three "moderates" until a couple days before the vote, and nobody was quite sure what form it would finally take). But sure, okay, he could have said something a day or two earlier, I'll concede you that. But I don't think it's an "unusual" idea to say that Obama doesn't have godlike powers over the press and the country's minds, and that he's not using them for malicious reasons, and therefore, the blame for the Military Commission's Act's passage must rest solely on his head. It seems much more unusual to insist that he does.

If you haven't read it yet, this post by hilzoy on Obama's record is quite informative, and a good antidote to the claims that he's "done nothing" in the Senate.

(via Ezra) http://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidian_wings/2006/10/barack_obama.html

that Obama doesn't have godlike powers over the press and the country's minds, and that he's not using them for malicious reasons, and therefore, the blame for the Military Commission's Act's passage must rest solely on his head

Sorry, that came out a little garbled.

I think it's worrying that even Yglesias can't spell Barack Obama's name.

I think another Senate term or the Illinois governorship wouldn't bring Obama any closer to the presidency.

When military bases were slated for closure in Illinois last year, Obama said: "This is one of those things where you have to think both locally but also nationally and globally," said Obama. "I don't want us in Illinois to seem so parochial that we're not interested in the overall national security infrastructure."

Other Illinois politicans were saying things like "I don't care what's good for America; I just care about my constituents," and that seems to go over better.

Also, all the talk of Obama charisma shifts attention away from the fact that he can actually be kind of icy, almost Vulcan, and snippity when he has to correct errors in constituent questions.

People who fear he'd be vulnerable to a Cheney-type puppeteer should read a transcript of pretty much any one of his foreign policy committee hearings. Some Congressfolk ask questions prepared by their staffs, and we can't generally expect more of them. Obama engages the policy he handles, and you get the sense his questions are his own.

I don't know if he should run for president or not. I think it's true a lot of people don't know him, but what YOU know isn't always what matters.

If we are looking for an articulate African-American from Chicago who has an amazing backstory, a pleasant speaking style, who can emapthize with everyone and has a degree of success why settle on Obama when you could have Oprah. Gore/Winfrey would kick Clinton/Obama's ass.

I want anrgy AlGore to run in 2008. He is tan, rested and ready to go. He was right on global warming 20 years ago. He really did help usher in the age of the internet. He was right from the beginning on Bush's War. His reinventing government actually did make the federal bureacracy more effecient. I give you Al Gore the once and future president.

The Republicans are so fractured right now, it's very hard to know what will sell in 2008. For example, what happens if the GOP loses big this fall -- and the blame falls at the feet of the Bush Administration. Suddenly, all the GOP water carriers in Congress turn on Bush and add to the Democratic piling on. Bush reacts irrationally, angers the American public, and enters 2008 as a totally discredited figure, despised by the American people and Democrats, and resented by his own party. (Fun scenario, huh?)

If this happens, and the CW becomes that the Bush Administration is the biggest disaster in American history, then Obama's classy bipartisan schtick could sell pretty well. Attack dog liberals will have been proven right, but the country might be tired of it, since even worn out Republicans acknowledge Bush was a disaster. The national mood would be sad and exhausted and scared -- and Obama's somber, tough-but-uplifting message could strike a chord. All of this would be conditioned on a national "waking up" to the Administration's reign of terror, of course.

Conversely, if the GOP holds on this fall and the next two years continues to be a gridlocked death battle between Dems and the fascist wing of the Republican Party, Obama's message will be way too benign to capture grassroots liberals, who will be out for blood and disgusted with someone like Obama, who apparently enjoys telling people what they don't want to hear. Democratic voters won't want uncomfortable truths, they'll want an attack dog.

I think the guy has a ton of talent. I'm glad he may run. But the next President will be chosen based on the national mood. If Republicans abandon GWB, Obama could be a chance to heal and recover. If the GOP holds together, however, I suspect his act won't sell.

I know Barack, I volunteered for his campaign when he was a 1 in 7 longshot for the Democratic nomination. I find the idea of him being handled by smarter advisors hilarious. I think you'd have to travel pretty far to find one.

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penis büyütücü

Oyun oyunlar oyun oyna gibi kelimeler toner kartuş konuları yer almakta bedava oyunlar
2 Oyunculu Oyunlar - Yetenek Oyunları - Dövüş Oyunları - Aksiyon Macera Oyunları - Nişancılık Oyunları - Spor Oyunları - Yarış Oyunları - Zeka Hafıza Oyunları - oyun çocukta doğuştan gelen bir tabiat ve Allah'ın onda yarattığı bir içgüdüdür. Bunun temelinde çocuğun fiziksel gelişiminin mükemmel bir tarzda gelişimdirMotor Oyunları - Mario Oyunları - Savaş Oyunları - Strateji Taktik Oyunları - Yemek Pişirme Oyunları - Dekor Oyunları - Boyama Kitabı Oyunları - 3 Boyutlu Oyunlar - Hugo Oyunları - Sonic Oyunları - Webcam Oyunları - Peri Güzellik Oyunları - Battleon Oyunları - Süper Oyunlar - İlizyon Oyunları - Komik Oyunlar - Teletabi Oyunları - Giysi Giydirme oyunları - Makyaj yapma oyunları -çocuğun en özenli işidir. Yetişkin için iş ve kazanç ne ise onun için de oyun odur... Dış dünyanın kavranılması öğrenilmesi ve hayata hazırlanmanın en ... Kız oyunları - Çocuk Oyunları - işletme oyunları - varmısın yokmusun - Bebek Oyunları - Oyun - Animasyon - Oyun Oyna - Oyunlar - Oyun Cambazı - Bedava Oyunlar - motosiklet dergisi - animasyon - renkli toner tozları - fotokopi toneri - kartuş - toner - boş toner - boş kartuş - toner dram - toner chip - toner tozu - toner dolumu - kartuş dolumu - kartuş dolum malzemeleri - kartuş dolum makinesi - renkli toner dolumu - Bedava Oyun - Kral oyun
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