The Odds
John Hollinger likes the Spurs' chances: "Tim Duncan and Tony Parker both look great, so it says here the league's model franchise has to be the odds-on favorite to claim its fourth ring of the Duncan Era. Only potential snag is age on the wings with Bruce Bowen, Barry and Finley."
My inclination is to agree that San Antonio has the best team in the league, but "odds-on favorite" doesn't follow from this. The West is so much better than the East that even if you like the Spurs' odds in a Finals matchup, the ex ante odds of San Antonio getting to the Finals have to be judged considerably worse than Miami's. That, I think, makes the Heat the preseason favorite even though San Antonio's better. It's also worth keeping in mind that I see a Texas-sized x-factor in the Rockets. They probably won't stay healthy, but faced with Yao-Battier-McGrady-Wells-Alson on the floor, I wouldn't feel too comfortable offering "you don't have a real power forward" as my counterargument.
Comments
I appreciate the "Miami is the only real team in the East" argument. But the problem in making Miami the odds-on favorite is the fragility of Shaq & Wade.
If I had to bet on one team to win the title, I'd narrowly pick Dallas over S.A. or Miami.
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And, yes, if McGrady's back is good, Houston can win a playoff series against anyone in the league.
I think the window has closed for the Spurs. Too old role players, not quite hungry enough, etc.
And bad backs never really heal, so I wouldn't count on Houston.
Shaq, I think, is more or less done. I don't see Wade winning another title for them essentially alone.
(You can see I'm working toward a Bulls win it all prediction here.)
If I had to pick today (and I'm not committing to a pick yet, people), I'd take Dallas. Very good team, very hungry, had the toughening loss.... Phoenix is the wildcard.
I've always liked Yao and it will be interesting to see if he brings the same form he showed after the All-Star game this year. If so, how will McGrady react to a more assertive Yao?
I think you are correct that Miami has the best chance of reaching the finals because the East is so weak. San Antonio has a much tougher road to the finals.
Perhaps my eyes deceive me, but did you just write that without once mentioning the Mavericks?
"You can see I'm working toward a Bulls win it all prediction here."
The Bulls are even more of a fool's gold pick than the Suns. And that's saying something.
The West is "so much better" than the East? I'll agree that the West is deeper, but the number of top-level teams with a serious chance of keeping the Spurs out of the Finals is pretty small...
Actually, I count only 1. The Mavs.
The Rockets are not ready for the big leagues, McGrady and Yao just don't mesh. The Suns would be great if Amare were healthy, but microfracture surgery is the kiss of death. And who else is there? The Clippers?
The West hasn't been dominant for years. Wake up!
Great point on the Rockets. That Southwest Division is a killer. There's a decent enough chance that the Spurs don't even win their division, much less their conference...
Agree with ogged, however much it pains me. I like Dallas, and the Suns with a resurgent Amare could be amazing. But gawd help me, the Clips' talent is just brutal.
I have no idea who is going to win the Championship, but I think it will be the Western Conference Champion.
BTW - haven't seen much out of Matthew about the 'Zards. Is he already resigned to knowing that the 'Zards will just be fighting for the 8th seed?
"That Southwest Division is a killer. There's a decent enough chance that the Spurs don't even win their division"
Of course, with the new playoff seeding formula, divisions have almost no meaning.
"Is he already resigned to knowing that the 'Zards will just be fighting for the 8th seed?"
I don't buy the 'Zards falling out of the playoffs argument. I think they'll have a decent regular season, tho I don't think they'll get very far in the playoffs.
Do you think the 'Zards have a realistic chance at being higher than the 7th seed? I don't.
Fuck. Agree with Al on Wizards. I can't actually see them higher than the eighth seed. Unless they get some help across the back line.
I would have to say Miami is the frontrunner, just because the winner of the West will be so exhausted by the time they get to the championship, Miami will have their way. Kind of like last year.
Oh, and fuck the mavs.
Mavs will be good...that's why the San Antonio outlook isn't so hot.
I think the 'zards will do about the same as the did last year. Probably lose in the first round of the playoffs, but with some chance of advancing depending on who the opponent is.
"with some chance of advancing depending on who the opponent is."
I think they're in real trouble against almost anyone in the playoffs. They're likely to have serious defensive problems that they'll be able to mask a bit in the regular season, but that will really show in a playoff series.
At the end of the day, you can't lose your best defender two years running without paying a price. Stevenson is an inadequate downgrade. If I'm wrong, give Eddie Jordan some real credit.
I think the 'zards will do about the same as the did last year.
And yet you can't manage to believe that we'll turn it around in Iraq.
Assuming everybody stays healthy, or Mavs have no worse luck than others:
Mavs win 70 games, lose to Miami in Finals.
70 Wins. In the West. You read it here.
At the end of the day, you can't lose your best defender two years running without paying a price. Stevenson is an inadequate downgrade.
As you know, I think JJ's skills as a defender are oft overstated. What worries me, though, downgrade-wise is rebounding. Jeffries had an 11.3 rebound rate last year, and Stevenson could only manage 5.6 -- the Wiz were already bad on the defensive glass and are at risk of becoming totally pathetic.
Umm, Matt, there is this third Texas team, and in the recent past, they haven't been too bad...
I think it's interesting that people don't mention the Cavs. Without a doubt, there is not a better player in the league than Lebron. I though last year he was only a year away form being able to take a team by himself to the championship. It's not like that Heat had anyone that good other than Wade. Shaq averaged liked 10 points in the finals. If they can get decent play from Hughes and a few others, Lebron will do the rest.
thanks for the Rockets luv, but i will be happy to see them make the playoffs. for a lottery team, their schedule is brutal - heavy on the road to begin with, and extremely heavy on the back to backs and four in fives.
The Wizards (please noone ever call them the 'Zards again) killed themselves by not going after KG. First round loss or maybe squeaking by if Arenas can get a chip on his shoulder.
And Lebron is not the best player in the league. Perhaps he has the most raw athletic ability but the best player he is not.
Amare Stoudemire's knees should be a team unto themselves. This micro-fracture business has slammed the brakes on several ultra-promising careers (Penny, C-Webb), but you can't help but wonder what Phoenix will do if Amare is even 80% of his former self.
With Boris Diaw taking Joe Johnson's spot and Kurt Thomas helping out in the middle, they could easily contend IF Amare returns. The team just seems to replenish itself. Heck, Barboso is coming on just as Nash might be missing a step. I like the Banks singing too. He may finally fit in with a team, since there are enough passers in the Phoenix lineup to make up for Marcus's PG deficiencies.
eriks wrote "And Lebron is not the best player in the league"
If you're a GM, who would you take before Lebron? No one - he's the best player in the league.
the whole spurs-are-done thing is interesting to me. dallas just barely got by the spurs. i mean, it literally could not have been any closer (manu with about the dumbest foul ever to lose). and dallas had the heat beat, but let them up off the mat. moreover, the spurs got better in the off-season: decent acquisitions, duncan heals, manu heals, and tony gets older (his finger seems alright). so betting against the spurs doesn't seem wise, particularly with timmy showing up in such good shape.
yes, finley et al. are getting old, which is why it's a tossup whether the spurs, the suns, the mavs represent the west in the finals. while i root for the spurs, i would love to see what a completely healthy suns team could do. i also wouldn't mind seeing yao and tracy stay healthy, so that the 2007 west is one of the best conferences ever, though i suspect either phoenix or houston will have injuries get in the way yet again.
I cannot wait for this Thursdays Mavs-Spurs game. Last night the Spurs were so relaxed, the new guys merging in so well and hitting their shots while the Mavs seemed very tense and edgy. Spurs were playing in SA so we'll see what happens Dallas. I agree with dj superflat - don't see the "spurs are done" at all.
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