Warner Out

Yes, Virginia politicians may get "disproportionate buzz" because of their proximity to Washington, but it has not helped anyone get elected President in the last century or so. Governor Douglas Wilder gave up his run for President in 1992. Mark Warner has just dropped out, and Senator Allen's presidential hopes have been dashed, even though he may win re-election. Generally Virginia politicians don't excite the national parties' voters.

Today is the first day of the '08 cycle that I think Edwards has a legitimate, non-longshot chance of actually taking down Hillary.

Warner was an absolutely enormous roadblock for Edwards. I thought Edwards was never going to get a clear shot at HRC because of Warner, but now...

I'm not sure the Warner candidacy didn't help Clinton. It seemed to me that he was going to run to Clinton's right, which would make her a much more sympathetic figure in the primaries. I.e., Warner would kill challenges from the left. Bayh is the only challenger to her right that may still run. The only way I think she loses the primary is if she ends up the furthest right person in it, which wasn't a possibility with Warner around.

The way to defeat Hillary is to unite the Hillary electability skeptics and the antiwar, partisan base behind a single, well-funded candidate. That just got a heck of a lot easier for John Edwards today.

"The way to defeat Hillary is to unite the Hillary electability skeptics and the antiwar, partisan base behind a single, well-funded candidate."

And unite labor too behind that candidate. That's IMPORTANT with capital letters.

And unite populist middle-class Dems behind that candidate.

------

It's going to get more and more important for Edwards to get a decent share of the African-American vote. If Hillary can take AA's as a bloc, that'll be a powerful trump card for her.

Gosh, that's profound.

Whoever unites Labor, the middle class, and African-Americans will win the Democratic primary.

Um, who else is there?

"Gosh, that's profound. Whoever unites Labor, the middle class, and African-Americans will win the Democratic primary. Um, who else is there?"

There are the Deanies. There are the Warner/Clinton money bags. There are elected Dems.

There are a plethora of important factions necessary to win the nomination, and the more of them Edwards can sew up, the better ammo he'll have for the grand showdown with Hillary.

One would hope that united labor support would help Edwards, but look at 2004. Almost all the unions that made endorsements went with either Gephardt, who had been courting union leaders for years, or Dean, who looked like a winner in September '03. Kerry got the firefighters and Edwards got the textile workers, and I think that's about it, as far as early union support went for them last time. We kept hearing about how important union support was in Iowa, and the two union-supported candidates' combined vote shares didn't even match Edwards' 2nd-place finish.

Some people have written about how Edwards will do well in Nevada because he's been coordinating some activities with UNITE-HERE lately. I'm a lot more skeptical. There are a lot of women working in the hotel industry. Are they more likely to vote for a sister like Hillary (assuming she can come across that way) or for Edwards? What about the SEIU, or the UFW? Are the members of these unions more likely to vote by their race or gender or cultural markers? Or will they just vote for who their national union leader, who probably doesn't live in their area and who they've never seen, sent them a brochure endorsing? I think it's a pretty strong case that it's the former.

Adding, I would much prefer Edwards to Clinton as the nominee. And Edwards has been showing up in important locales and aggressively courting these constituencies face to face, not just sweet-talking the union leaders over a fancy lunch in D.C. So, to the extent that Edwards can affect the situation, he's trying to do it. Just keep in mind, support from the union leaders doesn't always translate into support from the union members.

I hate to say it, but if Gore doesn't run, Edwards is very likely to win the nomination, and if Edwards gets the nomination we lose the White House for another four years. I see no realistic scenario in which a post-9/11, wartime U.S. elects John Edwards as commander-in-chief.

I hate to say it, but if Gore doesn't run, Edwards is very likely to win the nomination, and if Edwards gets the nomination we lose the White House for another four years. I see no realistic scenario in which a post-9/11, wartime U.S. elects John Edwards as commander-in-chief.

Agreed on all counts. We need Gore.

Well, but who was the last governor of Maryland to get any buzz? Spiro Agnew?

I think the off-year election is a bigger factor than proximity. That, and Virginia's habit of always voting against the incumbent President's party. Together they give reporters a ready-made story about a brave politician bucking the national tide and heralding a turn-around for the losers just as the reporters have reached the end of their job security.

Case in point: the Christie Whitman phenomenon of the mid-90s.

I hate to say it, but if Gore doesn't run, Edwards is very likely to win the nomination, and if Edwards gets the nomination we lose the White House for another four years. I see no realistic scenario in which a post-9/11, wartime U.S. elects John Edwards as commander-in-chief.

Well, he could maintain about 2/3 of his national favorability rates, then he'd win.

I think you're putting way too much emphasis on sketch biography here - the Kerry mistake. It's not very hard to convince the American people that you can do foreign policy, especially when you run a campaign against the really, really horrible foreign policy of the previous administration.

Who's Mark Warner?

Is he releated to my favorite Senator?

I'm surprised. He seems just delusional enough to believe he could upstage HRC, or just vain enough not to care whether he did or not.

So the question becomes who out there remains (or plans on becoming) delusional enough to think they could upstage HRC, or is vain enough not to care whether they win or lose.

I continue to believe that John Kerry's 2004 bid may have been one of the most under-recognized vanity runs in American history.

I think this may end up helping, of all people, Bill Richardson. He is the only governor left in the race, and that seems to be the ticket to winning the presidency.

Virginia also has some interesting demographics and idiosyncracies. The one-consecutive-term limit, for instance, means that ambitious governors either bob in and out of state politics or seek national office. But that also means that they don't really establish themselves, even on a state or regional level. (G. Felix Allen was governor: who knew?)

I think the scene is set for Gore to be physically dragged into the race by supporters, in one of the rare exceptions where a candidate's extensive past record counts towards them. I don't think Hillary wins the nomination.

Yes, what of my beloved home state of Maryland? We never get any buzz. Where was the William Donald Schaefer for VP boomlet at the 88 convention? The stories about Parris Glendening's national ambitions? Barbara Mikulski's ill-advised 2004 run?

Mike:

"...Bill Richardson. He is the only governor left in the race..."

Not true. Evan Bayh was Governor of Indiana for 8 years before being elected to the Senate.

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