It's (Semi) Official

Was it really mainly Rove, and not Dole, or Mehlman who made that call? He doesn't seem to've been as active this year as in 2002.

If I may be so bold as to critique your writing style, I think your last sentence would have been better served by concluding, "have things geniusly blow up in his face," which is how I originally read it. I had a good chuckle at that.

Otherwise, you are quite correct.

We fucked him like he'd never been fucked before.

I kept trying to make this argument in 2000 ... that Rove was no genius, he just conned people into thinking he had it all pegged and when his six point win didn't materialize, he latched onto the first harebrained theory that explained it (the whole DWI kept the Christian Right home ... boy, they must really hate voting if that was enough to do it.)

Let's face it, Bush and Rove have lived a charmed life. Without Theresa Lepore's Butterfly Ballot in 2000, they don't win. Without 9-11, they would have been crushed in 2002. Without the last minute Bin Laden tape, they lose in 2004. All the luck has finally caught up with them and the hard right agenda they pushed in the mean time has lost the edge conservatism once had.

The nation's back to 50-50 and Dems have an opportunity to prove that liberalism isn't a dirty word, it's something that has and can again make this a better world. So thanks Karl for giving us another shot.

Dole supports anyone who looks like a gerbil.

Dan Conley makes a really good point. I had forgotten how fucking lucky those bastards were, and how fast they were going down the drain before 9-11. But you only get so many nets and edges in a ping pong game, and if that's what's keeping you alive, well your demise will be painful.

Diebold made Rove. He's just a low rent coksucker from the scrub league, to put it in LBJ terms.
Minus vote machines he would have been trash, always running divisive campaigns.

Republicans are like that junior high coach who's so in love with trick plays that he forgets to run the normal ones. And if elections happened every few weeks instead of every two years, all this would have become apparent much sooner. The Republicans never had the dynasty they pretended, and now they've almost completely lost their movement.

Rove has never been a genius. What sets him apart is solely his willingness to stoop to tactics which are too degrading for normal people.

You might as well praise the genius of a mugger, who is willing to beat up a little old lady when decent people wouldn't do such a thing.

give props to Liddy Dole for backing horrible Senate candidates in so many races.

Genius or not, the man is quite simply a douche-bag of the worst kind. If he, GW, and Cheney are allowed to escape the most severe judgement of the civilized world, it will be to our eternal shame.

There was tremendous torque applied in last 10 days to manipulate perception of impending GOP pick-ups in NJ and MD. Rove's reliance on wedge issues to drive "the base" in GOP hold states gave him the worst wedgy since Young Republican days. (Grover, Jack and Ralph are such pranksters).

the guy had a majority in congress and lost it, he had surplus in funds and squandered it, he had politcal capital after 911 in the form of 90% approval rating and rode it down to 31...this guy is such a loser daddy had to bail him out on the war....so glad the dems won this election!

You make a good case, but I still say that if George W. Bush gets more than 15% of the popular vote, then Rove is a genius. And in spite of Diebold and other shennanigans, I do believe that Bunnypants legitimately received more than 15% of the vote. Ergo, Rove is a genius.

Now the truth can be told: A lot of us were in on project to convince Rove he was infallible so that he would become overconfident. That's why we were always talking up his genius in blog entries and comments. But we never believed it.

"De l'audace, de l'audace, encore de l'audace!"
Danton, Revolution and Counter-revolution in Germany, 1907

Not to mention that "the climate," which would appear to be a mere fact of nature having nothing to do with anyone's particular decisions about anything, or policies, or any of that stuff, is actually, y'know, kind of the resut of massive GOP incompetence and ideology-driven fuck-uppery the like of which the world has rarely if ever seen, and in which Rove had no small hand his very own self.

I mean, "the climate"--right?--is actually PART of the massive GOP car wreck that can be to some degree laid like a dead rat on Karl's Kounterpane. N'est-ce pas?

The only mistake Karl Rove made was that he trusted voters, who sometimes behave irrationally.

I hear the new Suede Denim Secret Police unit of the CHiPs will begin hiring next week.

Fortunately, my nieces in the state are quite fashionable.

I think it's important to emphasize how dumb his decision was:

Maryland wasn’t even close! From the State Website 10 minutes ago:
53% O’Malley to 45% Ehrlich &
54.7% Cardin to 43.7% Steele
Democratic Attorney General Gansler won 62% to 38%

Look - Marylanders with no information voted for the Democrat by 62% to 38%. All the investment in Steele left a margin of 10%. This race was not close. I could have told them that. Any Marylander could have. It was dumb, dumb, dumb.

I am delighted that the Dems won so much and now have a chance to engage in meaningful oversight, but tell me:

Howard Dean's strategy of stretching for 50-state coverage was brilliant, but Rove's strategy of extending the GOP to New Jersey & Maryland was folly? What's the diff? And don't say the atmospherics weren't good; they weren't for Dean when he started strewing money around on so-called losers.

1) Different results suggests they may be different in the details.

2) More importantly, the 50 State strategy is about building the local parties early in the election season and for the long-run. In theory, that should encourage and develop more local candidates and produce a deeper bench. Further, it may help identify really quality candidates for long-shot races. Spending broadly at the beginning and between elections is smart. Targetting intelligently at the end is also smart. They're different because they occur at different times, partially to achieve different goals, but mostly because different information is available at different times. If a candidate is behind in an unfavorable state, that means very little early in an election (they'll probably lose, but they can make it up and prove their abilities - spend on a number of them and some will and some won't). Late in the election, the opportunity is often gone.

3) The fifty-state strategy is probably more important when you're behind. Smart defense may be smarter when ahead.

Funny, since this thing always happens in football. A head coach strikes a blend of moderate preparation, luck, and hard work, and all of the sudden he's a "genius." The "genius" tag was thrown around like candy for years, although it seems to have tapered off lately. Anyway, before you knew it, that same genius coach was going 6-10 and missing the playoffs two years later.

Oh yeah, and fuck Karl Rove.

Linus,

It doesn't matter how fashionable your nieces are. They are still going quietly to a camp.

re one comment, the results suggests we are not a 50-50 nation, but one that slightly leans Democrat. The Senate went Dem even though it is malapportioned to favor Republicans. The same by a slighter margin is true about the House, and there the Dems have an over 10 slot majority. Dems also won state races by more than a 50+1 margin.

The minimum wage repeatedly won. On some issues leaning progressive, we are clearly not evenly split. OTOH, we still are uncomfortable about gays, at least gay marriage.

God, how you tempt me...

Calfornia!

Uber Alles!
Californial Uber Alles!

Sorry Matt, I feel better now.

In fairness you should at least mention unseating Dashle

Why I Am a CA Militant

As a former californian I'm well aware of the flaws of CA politics, but I still maintain a residual pride in the basic efficacy thereof. For all of CalTrans' faults, the freeways work pretty well. CHP's are bastards, but then they have to be don't they? You'll certainly never see a CHP officiously supervising the building of a fence as a Mass Statie might (or are they local?). And whatever the funding probs of the CA educational system, hiring is relatively merit(read ed-level) based and politically debatable, resulting in my Oakland Public Schools education giving me a solid understanding of the kingdoms of Mali, Ghana, and Songhai and the Five Pillars of Islam, yet (at age 13) not having heard of de Toqueville. In MA at the moment, it's all MCAS, all the time.

Nothing has confirmed my 'alien' status in Ma more than Q. 1.In any regular state,the minimizing of the distance the drunk must cross to procure alcohol might be a benefit. Not so here. I had initially attributed relatively draconian liquor laws to some sort of latent puritanism: I now learn that this bluest of states is essentially conservative in a very real way.

shows what I know.

Rove's no genius. But he did get by a long time on knowing stupid a lot better than the rest of us. And that always makes him a threat.

Don't leave MN off that list. We're so blue, (insert witty comparison I'm having trouble coming up with at the moment). They put a lot into backing Mark Kennedy, the Little Weasel that Couldn't, in spite of that. Look where that got them. (Seriously, take a look at how MN turned out- especially state senate and house. Veto overrides, baby!)

To quote Genghis Khan and Conan the Barbarian: "What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of their women!"

What's missing from this analysis is the role that Rove played in creating that bad "climate". Remember, he also has an unprecedented role in setting policy and the president's day to day operations (including the political issues they focus on in the press). I'm sure Rove had a hand in Bush's unwillingness to admit mistakes, the Schiavo fiasco, the plan to go to Mars, maybe even the fake journalists (Armstrong Williams, Gannon/Guckert), the branding of liberals as traitors, the outing of a CIA agent and probably even Abramoff related corruption, which all were designed more-or-less as PR stunts that backfired. Rove is an idiot--one that is dangerous because of the depths he will go, but an idiot nonetheless.

Rove isn't great at reaching out to voters -- re: Maryland, New Jersey, Hawaii, etc. -- but he is damn good at demonizing Democrats. Re: Terrorism, John Kerry's gaffe, Swift Boats, etc. Gotta give credit where credit is due: Karl Rove can win elections without really understanding electoral strategy, just based purely on distributing talking points.

You'll certainly never see a CHP officiously supervising the building of a fence as a Mass Statie might (or are they local?).

Both. It depends on who the contractor wants to hire. A friend used to do traffic studies in Central Mass. and he always hired Staties since he felt the State Police were usually better trained than the local police. In Boston, I do always see local officers. State Police act as crosswalk guards at Logan airport, though.

(In case no one knows what we're talking about: Mass. law requires a police officer to be present on any work projects that affects a road. No other state has a similar law.)

How about this from Williams Safire's column on NYT editorial page this morning?

"Despite the pervasive weariness with the war and the high tide of irritation at Bush’s steadfastness; despite the general disgust at the policy paralysis and ethical laxity in the wake of muscle-bound one-party control — the result was only the average loss of House and Senate seats of the party in power midway in the second term of a president."

Didn't happen in 98, didn't happen in 86. Last time it happened was 1958. Can't count 74, since Nixon was already gone at that point. How can supposedly serious commentators get away with this idiocy?

Rove is certainly not a genius, but like any good con artist, he's astute at appealing to the base interests of marks.

Rove is all about the attack. Even his defense relies heavily on blitzing. He went after California in 2000 and NJ & MD this year because while he may call him self conservative, his political strategy is anything but.

The GOP horde, the media, and certain Democrats have long treated Rove like Al Capone -- a romanticized villain, who they both fear/respect/admire for his ruthless quest for power, regardless of his unethical and sometimes criminal methods.

Liddy Dole's meant to be up for re-election in 2008. I wouldn't be surprised if she retired, because she's widely perceived as an absentee senator.

As for Safliar: isn't the point here that gerrymandering since 1994 has really redefined what constitutes a landslide?

Howard Dean's strategy of stretching for 50-state coverage was brilliant, but Rove's strategy of extending the GOP to New Jersey & Maryland was folly? What's the diff?

Big, big diff. Rove looked to the top of the ballot. Dean's strategy focused on the bottom of the ballot, and on funding party workers in states and counties where Democrats still had perhaps 30-40% of the vote, but no real party organisation. Look at statehouse races and county commissioner races and boards of education. There are some very clear inroads even in states that didn't feature on the federal highlight reel.

The bloom is off the Rove.

Rove is exactly like Bush, and the majority of Republitards who idolize them: born on third base, and acting like they hit a triple.

Rove was lucky, and simply exploited weak points... and still almost lost. He gets some sort of credit for recognizing those weak points, but it turns out, in the end, Rove doesn't have any real skill. He can't compete on a level playing field when there is real competition.

We should thank Rove, however. He likely handed the Democrats a permanent, one party majority. So long as the Dem leaders don't mess it up.

The 50-state strategy is about (a) building local party apparatus and (b) fielding candidates even in "longshot" races.

The 50-state strategy is not for November 3rd, but for December through August. You lay the groundwork at the local level, and sometimes at the state level, to have a chance in more races than one would expect.

Then, once the elections are in full swing, you see where you stand and fund the races that can win. The 50-state strategy pulled up some good people in Nebraska, but the national party smartly didn't focus on winning those races, because the Dems were going to get stomped.

Rove's strategy in pushing hard on NJ and MD was entirely backwards, in relation to the 50-state strategy. He threw money and time at losing races late in the cycle. The Dems want to put in money and time early in the cycle in order to create winning races late in the cycle.

Matthew is, of course, right. Rove has NEVER been a good political strategist.

I have no idea why so many Democrats came to see Rove as some evil genius. The "evil" part I understand (Democrats see Republicans as evil generally) - but why the "genius"? I suppose it made them feel better to believe they were beaten by a master political strategist - who wants to believe they were beaten by a mediocre candidate AND a mediocre political strategist in 2000 and 2004 (and 2002, for that matter)??? But I think it would have been better for Democrats themselves if they would have taken a good hard look at what they did so wrong those years to have been beaten by such mediocrities. Hell, I don't think Democrats took a really hard look at themselves even after 2004 - they more or less lucked out in 2006 that Bush has been perceived to be losing the war in Iraq.

To paraphrase our dear leader, "Don't forget Michigan." The GOP dumped around half a million dollars into Bouchard's campaign in the last two weeks before the election. I don't know what they were smoking when they were reading the polls there, but I wish I had some of it.

The presence of 3, or so, "unreliable" Republican senators, (e.g. Snowe, Collins, Chafee) might have motivated Rove to spread the senate campaign attack too widely.

I've noted this before; why not again?

If Rove were really a "genius," we would now be in the middle of GWB's first term, following eight years of Rove's '96 horse Phil Gramm, who was crushed in primary after primary despite having raised considerably more money than any of his competitors (except for Dole.)

He's a talented adversary, but a great deal of his reputation comes from riding the horse in the direction it was already going in the Texas of the '70s, '80s, and '90s.

A bit of perspective. The House is Democratic, more solidly than the Senate, but not overwhelmingly so. The country on Tuesday voted Democratic and sometimes for genuine liberals, but we're not at either cruising speed or altitude yet. This isn't the 30s, 40s, 50s, or 60s. We're closer to the 70s here when every genuinely liberal piece of legislation depended upon hard work and cooperation with Republicans. Those Republicans with whom we cooperated in the 70s no longer exist (outside of New England).

The national mindset isn't simply a Rovian construct. There are newspaper columnists, TV yakkers, and even allegedly liberal reporters (like the idiot chic who decided that making fun of Gore proved their intellectual independence) -- all of whom are not about to start talking Democrat.

Rove's genius was always overstated, but easy as it is to say that now, let us not fool ourselves. He scared us all, not because he was a great strategist in conventional terms, but because his real genius lay in relentlessly showing that conventional strategizing was not enough. The batteries of lawyers on call in 2004 and this year are evidence of how he forced us to prepare for new contingencies, as were the Dems' much better response to ugly personal attack ads this time around.

But correct as the outcome of Tuesday's election seems to mainstream Americans, even some conservatives, it was a close run thing. Conrad Burns's defeat by a couple thousand votes should frighten us as much as it gives us joy. A man so tainted by the Abramoff scandal and as dismissive of government's role in helping Montanans should not have been in serious contention. (That is not to sell Tester's victory short. He worked hard.) Similarly, Sali's victory in ID-1 and Jean Schmidt's showing in Ohio are a sign of how potent Rove's politics of division remain.

Nonetheless, the elections reveal that like many before him, Rove's successes were as rooted in particular circumstances as they were in his strategic gifts. But even some of his most obvious mistakes are rooted in the changes his own tactics had wrought and he was somewhat blind to. We may tut-tut now at Rove's faints to Maryland and New Jersey, but had the Dems remained stuck in the defensive mode so evident in 2004 Rove would have had plenty of money to spread around and swiftboating would have won him the day again.

The Dems evolved. But perhaps in part because Rove's base doesn't allow for evolution, he could not. Had he gotten Hastert to pass raise the minimum wage and forced Rumsfeld out this summer rather than making Republicans pledge to stay the course in Iraq, this election could well have turned out differently. That he did not pursue those measures, however, reflected how inflexible the system the Republicans had built up since 1994 had become. In an era when radical promises of a new world order were proving less powerful than harsh everyday realities, Rove's genius for emphasizing division outlived its moment.

Rove, evil supergenius is just anoter manifestation of AlQaeda, supervillains extraordinaire. He's not stupid. The AQs are competenat at their brand of mischief (they are dangerous thugs). The administration painted the latter as more powerful and capable than the actually are. They allowed the meme of the superpol Rove to spread. Both worked to their advantage by creating learned helplessness responses. Only our overlords can protect us from the juggernaut of islamofascism. Rove it all are unstoppable, so don't even try.

mj

In case this hadn't been said before, there was no incumbent running fot the Senate in Tennessee.

Before 1980 Rove doesn't work. After January 2005, Rove doesn't work.

Karl Rove is no genius, never was. He was Lee Atwater on steroids willing to stoop to lows that would have made Atwater blanche. Reflecting the times, Rove was of sufficiently low character having no regard for any level of civility or decency.

As Mr. Yglesias pointed out, he made some egregious errors in the past that, under other circumstances, would have exposed him as incompetent.

Rove was a beneficiary of the Ronald Reagan civic irresposibility era of American history.

Re; Then in 2004, he did something similar with weird last minute gambits in Hawaii and New Jersey that put his candidates perilously close to losing Ohio

I thought that these were attempts to force the Kerry campaign to waste time and money defending states that were already theirs rather than focus on swing states like Ohio. In a presidential campaign that is a workable fake-out strategy.

Re: Didn't happen in 98, didn't happen in 86

The Democrats did make gains in 86 (taking back the Senate for one thing). I'm not sure how many House seats they regained that year.

Karl Rove is supposedly Lee Atwater, resurrected. Atwater was really the "evil genius" of the party and laid the deep groundwork for the later successes of the GOP which were then attributed to Rove.
Rove is just very talented at taking credit for other people's successes while pushing blame for his failures into the background or onto other people. Just be glad Atwater never got the chance to fully implement his aspirations.............

The basic Rove method has always been about tapping into bigotry, angers and resentments, and fear of the Modern world. This never worked well in cleanly Blue parts of the country, and Rove has never been able to persuade a single liberal voter. But Democrats never quite pegged how much of that Left Behind fear and loathing was available to be tapped in Red areas.

The problem with the Rove method is that tapping into this crud in people sure does bring it to the surface for a time, but then Reality withers it away. His national 2000 campaign was about tapping into bigotry toward blacks and liberal women (i.e. 'anti-abortion'). 2002 was run against Arabs and non-Christians (esp. Muslims). 2004 was about running against Jews and gays. This year he and his Party tried to run against a subgroup of Latinos ('illegals') and a subgroup of women (i.e. Nancy Pelosi).

But this demonstrates the problem with the method- the targets are only good for one campaign, and as they get used up you have to run against ever smaller ones. Most of the larger targets of resentment were used up by Atwater and that crowd during the Republican campaigns of the Eighties and Nineties- young blacks, drug users, atheists, secular teachers, scientists, feminists, the poor, violent criminals, environmentalists, intellectuals, uppity women/feminists, college students, the liberal upper class, pacifists, etc.

Is this genius, or just an immoralist's career following on being a born into a crap family, failure in college, and just perhaps being a closeted homosexual? These resentments were out there for the exploiting, created by the rise of Modernity during the Fifties and Sixties.

The person who does look like a genius is Howard Dean. He pursued a strategy of unlikely states, just as Rove did, and his strategy worked. I want to be the first to predict that Dean will run for the Democratic nomination in 2008. He may not win, due to memories of "the scream," but anti-war, anti-Hilary elements could possibly coalesce around him.

Turdblossom thinks he's smarter than the entire United States...no actually he thinks he's smarter than the whole world..so does Rumsfeld, Bush, Cheney, Rice etc etc..that whole cabal thought they had the wingnuts under their thumb and everything was going to be fine. Problem is they couldn't cheat the vote like before because of all the eyes on them, their illegal campaign contributions dryed up with the Abramhoff scandal and the Foley child sex pedophile scandal got the people's attention and some woke up. That's why I say we need to out a few more wingnut closet cases to keep the people interested. Sex sells.

While I generally oppose torture -- seeing myself as a civilized human being -- I am all for jn's proposal above about the wedgie for Mr. K. Rove. Torture, like pornography is one of those "I know it when I see it" things, but 'who deserves a wedgie' isn't.

DISCLAIMER: I don't actually know that "Mr." Rove is a man, and not a hideous female. If I'm wrong about the gender here, the wedgie issue may be moot.

And BTW, is KRove a word? Yet? Sometimes when a new concept requires several words to get its accepted meaning across, a new word is needed. So I propose 'KRove' for the concept "lying in a political situation where the opposition will not call you on it, and you'll be likely to get away with it." I guess we could call it Atwater or Friedman, but "KRove' has a real ring to it. And anyway -- "santorum" is already taken.

Remember the old wives' saying: "To lose one leglislative chamber is unlucky. To lose two is just careless."

KRove has a pleasant ring to it...but considering what a nasty sonofabitch he is, I'd go with KRoven...as in craven.

If you read all these comments, you relize hou lost we realy are when it comes to alternitive feuls. I think there might be some conspiracy from our goverments and there is a lot of con artists in this for money. But one thing is for sure - you can not buy a car that uses water as feul. I think we must start using wind and sun energy to safe money at home and spent it on fuel untill hybrid cars become the norm

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Remember the old wives' saying: "To lose one leglislative chamber is unlucky. To lose two is just careless

KRove has a pleasant ring to it...but considering what a nasty sonofabitch he is, I'd go with KRoven...as in craven.

KRove has a pleasant ring to it...but considering what a nasty sonofabitch he is, I'd go with KRoven...as in craven

And BTW, is KRove a word? Yet? Sometimes when a new concept requires several words to get its accepted meaning across, a new word is needed. So I propose 'KRove' for the concept "lying in a political situation where the opposition will not call you on it, and you'll be likely to get away with it." I guess we could call it Atwater or Friedman, but "KRove' has a real ring to it. And anyway -- "santorum" is already taken

And BTW, is KRove a word? Yet? Sometimes when a new concept requires several words to get its accepted meaning across, a new word is needed. So I propose 'KRove' for the concept "lying in a political situation where the opposition will not call you on it, and you'll be likely to get away with it." I guess we could call it Atwater or Friedman, but "KRove' has a real ring to it. And anyway -- "santorum" is already taken

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If you read all these comments, you relize hou lost we realy are when it comes to alternitive feuls. I think there might be some conspiracy from our goverments and there is a lot of con artists in this for money. But one thing is for sure - you can not buy a car that uses water as feul. I think we must start using wind and sun energy to safe money at home and spent it on fuel untill hybrid cars become the norm..this is very good idea

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And BTW, is KRove a word? Yet? Sometimes when a new concept requires several words to get its accepted meaning across, a new word is needed. So I propose 'KRove' for the concept "lying in a political situation where the opposition will not call you on it, and you'll be likely to get away with it

http://www.koz-metik.com/feromon-c47.html tnx

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teşekkürler yararlı bir yazı olmuş bloğunu takip ediyorum.
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