Spinballs
There's spin and then there's spin. Larry Kudlow is playing dirty pool: "Look at blue dog conservative Dem victories, and look at Northeast liberal GOP defeats. The changeover in the House may well be a conservative victory, not a liberal one."
This is blatantly self-contradictory. Who, after all, defeated the northeastern liberal Republicans? Not conservative blue dogs. And who did the relatively conservative Democrats beat? Not moderate northeastern Republicans. The exit polls clearly show a broad-based trend in favor of Democrats among essentially all demographic sub-groups. That played out in specific House races in roughly two ways. In some cases, relatively conservative Democrats booted extremely conservative Republicans who'd fallen into some sort of idiosyncratic political troubles. In a larger number of cases, basically standard progressive Democrats defeated Republicans who'd been holding moderate or liberal-leaning districts but done nothing to halt the GOP's determination to march the country off the cliff.
I'm not really a believer in "mandates" per se, but the overall impact is clearly to shift the composition of the House to the left without having any particularly dramatic impact on the balance within the Democratic caucus. That's a victory for liberalism and a victory for progressive politics. Given a measure of power, the task is now to wield it. People on the other side are naturally disposed to try to undermine Democratic self-confidence in the wake of a disaster for their team, but liberals would be fools to fall for it. In this past elections boldness has, as a rule, tended to pay off in a way the politics of timidity did not in 2002 and 2004.
UPDATE: Now I see John McCain on Larry King trying to argue that Iraq wasn't such a big deal in this election the real problem was "overspending." Sure. As Noam Scheiber points out he more-or-less needs to do that. A somewhat thoughtless CW has held that OP setbacks are good for McCain because he's a reformist. He is, but he's also a super-hawk and Iraq is obviously a huge drag on the GOP.
Comments
Kudlow is a crank but aren't the bulk of these pickups in blue and purple states? Even the Kansas 2nd district includes Topeka. It may be the case that Tom deLay's old seat was the only truly blood red district in a blood red state Democrats won. I think I agree with the CW: this election only hardens the polarization in the country. And the fact that Nancy Pelosi not one of the Clintons will be the majority leader doesn't entirely inspire confidence that we are now the verge of a strong push for a unity agenda.
Regarding McCain, he also has gone out and shilled from every Republican within kissing distance over the past month. Combine that with the rollover on torture and the general turn right and his reformist credentials are toast. The man lived in liberal/moderate circles off the whiff of authenticity, and the odor coming off that as he embraced lots of Republicans summarily then kicked out is pretty bad.
Kudlow’s argument (which other people also are making) founders on the rocks of Simpson's Paradox. It's an elementary fallacy to infer that if the election moves both the median Republican legislator & the median Democratic legislator to the right, then the legislature as a whole moves to the right. In fact, even if both parties move right, I suspect the 110th will be to the left of the right of the 109th. When subpopulations differ, aggregation can reverse the direction of relationships. This is counterintuitive to some people, & fallacious reasoning like Kudlow’s is as common as dirt, so if you don't fully understand how it works, it's worth getting it clear in you head: Simpson’s Paradox.
The interesting thing to me are the NE moderate Republicans that barely held on (maybe 2 in CT, some in NY, etc.). Once they're in the minority, I can't see any way they hold on past '08. Some will retire, I'd bet, a few might switch and the rest will be targeted with the money that comes from being in the majority.
What is Kudlow talking about. Paygo is on Pelosi's agenda not Bush's.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/06/AR2006100600056.html
A somewhat thoughtless CW has held that OP setbacks are good for McCain because he's a reformist. He is, but he's also a super-hawk and Iraq is obviously a huge drag on the GOP.
However, Matt, the CW may be sounder than usual. I have a notion that the coming winding down of US military involvement in Iraq, should the Democrats force it to occur, may save McCain from McCain. I can't imagine advocating a big increase in US troop levels will be any more popular a stance to take in 2008 than in 2006. Well, such a position could well be water under the bridge in another two years. The good American voters who just opted for change may have done McCain a BIG favor. Indeed, should the current low-grade civil war in Iraq morph into the high energy Blue vs. Gray variety, McCain could conceivably be able to go around, and, in a very elder statesmanly way, say "I told you so" -- and a lot of voters might well buy such a line.
In KY 3, Yarmuth ran as a unrepentant liberal in the country's most middle class city -- Louisville. He beat a Marilyn Quayle clone, in Ann Northup. (And I do mean clone. Do a Google image search sometime and you'll think "Girls from Brazil?")
In 2004, Northup won 60-40. She was known for 3 things: constituent services, bringing in the money for a new bridge across the Ohio River, and shadowing George W. Bush. The first two proved meaningless, and near the end of the campaign she desperately tried to jettison the last.
That a middle class place like Louisville embraced a kind of flakey, MoveOn type liberal says that the country really has gotten tired of the Republicans.
At least the gamma was way off on the MSNBC interview with McCain, making him look like an Ooompaloompah.
Perhaps a more accurate spin would be to say that many new moderate Dem representatives won by shifting a moderate-to-conservative voting bloc into the Dem column.
Many of those voters are technically registered Independent, but are moderate-to-conservative ideologically, and rely on a conservative personal cultural identity.
Identity being more a sensibility, a way of talking about values and approaching decision-making, than a specific policy position.
The Dem representative got there by adopting positions acceptable to those voters, and speaking in a voice that could be heard by those folks as their own, and would have a hard time in the next election if they vote with a Dem majority against those positions or in a way that talks past or over that voice.
The new representatives will have to do the work of winning over of public opinion in their district, prior to the party approaching potentially divisive votes.
So, there will be an ongoing campaign and process of listening, debating and convincing.
That should be the new hallmark, a change in process away from Bush-esque unilateralism, towards an inclusive, culturally broad, populist progressivism.
So new proposals will need to be staged, so as to build deeper trust and identity roots in these voting groups.
In other words, we got an election wave, but there is an larger ongoing wave that actually needs to be built and sustained, not just assumed.
McCain thinks the problem is overspending? It would be nice to have that $300,000,000,000 (and counting) we flushed down the Iraq toilet (buying arms for terrorists) back.
Kudlow must be back on the nose candy and sauce again.
Our drinking problem would not be a problem if we sticked to Gordon Vodka rather than Remi Martin, and if we lost any money on bets made while drunk, it is not a problem with alcohol but with our ability to model stochastic processes. (And yes, there were drunken bets: "we will, hep, be greeted with, hep, flowers, and all, hep, gainsaying, hep, liberals with eath, hep, crow"; of couse, the bettors were drunk with power, not booze)
Nore seriously, McCain theory tells a lot about his social life and reading habits. He obviously either hobnobs or reads some paleocon of the "why we do not spend less" variety. Somehow he did not notice that their views are largely unknow to the population at large.
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