I don't want to ruin anyone's post-Christmas day of recovery, but this Glenn Reynolds post is really distressing. Some Iranian officials come to Iraq, get themselves taken prisoner by the American military, and Reynolds sees this as a convenient pretext for the United States to launch a war with Iran. But what's the pretext? And why should we be looking for excuses to start a war with Iran?
Matthew Yglesias is a writer living in Washington, DC. More »
©2006–2008 by Matthew Yglesias.
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I guess the pretext would be something like that horrid provocation that the Poles threw in poor, cowering Germany's face in the late summer of 1939....
Congress should pass a law against an attack on Iran as soon as the new term starts.
hey, sglover, well said. You forgot that the Poles would never have been able to threaten Germany so without the backing of Luxemborg and the Netherlands.
'cuz they brown people?
-
Glenn comes from the John Yoo school of lawyering where the policy is left to others while he does the legal justifications.
Somebody took away the wrong lesson from the movie Wargames as a young shaver.
Reynolds clearly doesn't see it as a "pretext." He thinks this story means that we caught Iranian officials red-handed working in tandem with insurgents.
As for Congress banning an attack on Iran, be realistic. There is no chance.
well I am sure glenn reynolds' answer would be that we should be looking for a pretext so that we have the international backing to destroy their nuclear capacity. I know. I now. Not very sensible, but this is glenn reynolds after all.
And why should we be looking for excuses to start a war with Iran?
Ummm...that's a rhetorical question, right?
Huh. Only a couple of weeks ago he was speculating that Iran MUST have a nuke because otherwise, why wouldn't we have invaded them by now.
Because war is the new reality tv. And Iraq is so 2006. All the cutting edge war bloggers know we need a new enemy and a new set of names for tv commentators and blogging pundits to sneer about. And because the odds that he or anyone he knows will actually risk anything in a new war is quite small.
But what's the pretext?
Huh? Did Matthew even read the post? Specifically, "were seized in a pair of raids late last week aimed at people suspected of conducting attacks on Iraqi security forces".
How is this NOT a causus belli?
The reality-based community is so often, er, not reality-based.
Don't forget Syria. Glenn doesn't!
And why should we be looking for excuses to start a war with Iran?
In the minds of Reynolds, Limbaugh, Cheney, etc... there has never been a tough foreign policy quandry that couldn't be solved by righteous Americans kicking some ass.
In conservative fantasy land, might makes right.
All of them need a good shrink to figure out why their mommies were mean to them.
The thought of kielbasas unleashed on his unsuspecting citizens caused Hitler to fight them over there lest he had to fight them in der vaterland.
How is this NOT a causus belli?
Huh? Did Al even read the post? Specifically, "were seized in a pair of raids late last week aimed at people suspected of conducting attacks on Iraqi security forces".
How is this a causus belli?
The reality-based community triumphs once more.
that's right, al: our intelligence is so perfect in iraq, after all, and the judgement of the people interpreting that intel has been so flawless, and the track record of our raids so impeccable....
there is nothing reality-based about calling this a causus belli, absolutely nothing: unhinged is the word....
Funny that the Washington Post didn't cover the Iraqi "Government" reaction:
Sounds like this was a "win-win" for the Bush League - they simultaneously wrecked the idea of opening negotiations with Iran, and spun it as "proof of Iranian meddling" in the hopes of building a case for military action. Pity that what it really was turns out to be yet another insult to both the Iraqi and the Iranian governments.
Yeah, we all believe that. Two of these Iranians were guests of the people actually running the Iraqi Security Forces, Iraq's Shiite power structure.
Well, since we missed the opportunity with the other Ira_ invasion, let's send Gung-Ho Glenn in the first wave.
Since they are now openly hoping for "incidents" a la Gleiwitz, can we now finally start calling a spade a spade and compare them to Nazis?
Matthew,
Perhaps you missied the part where Iran is already directly and indirectly fighting our troops in Iraq. What Reynolds is pointing out is that perhaps - just perhaps - we'll realize that Iran considers itself at war with us already, and maybe we'll recognize that fact. The fact that this confuses you is telling in and of itself.
James Robertson: If the US treats this as a causus belli (and the evidence that is a genuine one is basically nonexistent), what do you think would happen if the US attacked Iran?
Latin lesson: It's "casus belli" (not "causus")... "case" for war, not "cause"
>what do you think would happen if the US attacked Iran?
wow. you have the temerity to suggest that we should consider the consequences of our actions BEFORE we act. radical.
Re; How is this NOT a causus belli?
Back in the 1930s there were American citizens fighting in the armies of the Spanish Republic against the Nationalists. I guess we're darn lucky Franco didn't declare war on us for that.
"Perhaps you missied the part where Iran is already directly and indirectly fighting our troops in Iraq."
And perhaps you missed the part where US special forces have been operating in Iran for at least a year, probably longer.
It's not an either/or. We're in Iran. They're in Iraq.
If you're looking for a defining incident that will be used as a pretext for war, wait until that second carrier group arrives. We'll get our bloody shirt, our Gulf of Tonkin - or so people like Reynolds hope.
Personally, I don't think the Iranians are that stupid. They've played the Bush administration for chumps for 6 years now. They're not going to open fire on US war planes violating their airspace or US tanks challenging their border. Reynolds is going to be gnawing at his own entrails well into 2009.
How is this NOT a causus belli?
Posted by: Al on December 26, 2006 10:55 AM
Hey Al, if you're so gung-ho to get our war on with Iran would you please enlist and volunteer to be the first one over the border?
Perhaps you missied the part where Iran is already directly and indirectly fighting our troops in Iraq. What Reynolds is pointing out is that perhaps - just perhaps - we'll realize that Iran considers itself at war with us already, and maybe we'll recognize that fact.
Posted by: James Robertson on December 26, 2006 11:14 AM
As I recall, during Vietnam the Russians and Chinese were providing the North Vietnamese with military equipment and in some cases the personnel to operate that equipment, such as the missiles in the SAM belt around Hanoi. So if we had just attacked the Russians and the Chinese we might have won in Vietnam?
And given Neocon rhetoric over the past 10 years, if I were Iran I'd be very worried about having American troops and bases right next door. Iran is acting in it's own national-security interests by getting involved in Iraq and trying to weaken us both locally and globally, yet another in a multitude of reasons why invading Iraq was a stupid idea.
James Robertson gasses:
Perhaps you missied the part where Iran is already directly and indirectly fighting our troops in Iraq. What Reynolds is pointing out is that perhaps - just perhaps - we'll realize that Iran considers itself at war with us already, and maybe we'll recognize that fact. The fact that this confuses you is telling in and of itself.
I'm pretty sure that North Korea already considers itself to be in some kind of conflict with us. You're saying that that's a sufficient reason to go charging across the 38th Parallel? If so, at the risk of hitting a nerve (I know you guys are touchy about this kind of thing, for some reason) -- are you going to be enlisting in the infantry any time soon?
It's an odd form of strategist who assumes that we ought to launch wars based almost exclusively on what we believe the other guy thinks. This is the sort of mindset that's just asking to be outwitted by any competent adversary -- , let alone a clever one. It's the kind of stupidity that defines the Cheney administration, and explains why, as other posts have noted, Iran has been able to outmanuever the U.S. over the last several years.
And why should we be looking for excuses to start a war with Iran?
the prison-military-industrial complex must be fed
Al just pissed himself (again). Time to change your panties, Al.
This is a weird and puzzling development. Why did the raids happen? Who wants to capitalize on them in the administration? The most puzzling thing, I think, is that one of the raids was on the compound of Hakim, leader of the most recently chosen good Shiites of the OVP.
But Al, this is dumb, and probably revealing:
Specifically, "were seized in a pair of raids late last week aimed at people suspected of conducting attacks on Iraqi security forces".
How is this NOT a causus belli?
For whom would this be a casus belli, if we accept by hypothesis that it is?
Specifically, "were seized in a pair of raids late last week aimed at people suspected of conducting attacks on Iraqi security forces".
How is this NOT a causus belli?
Where does it even say the people seized and the people suspected were the same people?
All it says is that there was a raid, and the raid came back with some people.
Not really enough for a conviction, but good enough for another war.
I suppose it could be a Causus Belli for Iraq, not that anybody needed more proof that Iran was meddling in Iraq's affairs. Haven't they pretty much been at war for a hundred years? Otherwise it could be a Causus Belli for Iran, since we're holding some of their diplomats prisoner. I don't see any way the US gets Causus Belli out of this though.
We captured two diplomats. Continuning the hold them would be an excuse for Iran to take actions against us - not the other way around. Glenn Reynolds has posted some really stupid things before - but this really takes the cake.
I suppose it could be a Causus Belli for Iraq, not that anybody needed more proof that Iran was meddling in Iraq's affairs.
But the thing is, even as the Wingnut Brigade takes it as gospel that Iran is a major cause of the trouble in Iraq, and views the notion of opening talks with Iran concerning Iraq's security to be laughable, the elected government of Iraq continues to hold exactly those sorts of talks. Apparently, the leaders of Iraq must be completely stupid, as they labor under the illusion that Iran might actually help them consolidate power. Or, perhaps, they're not the stupid ones at all.
"In Baghdad, a spokesman for President Talabani said Iranian security personnel had been invited to Iraq by the president to help improve the situation."
How long ago were they "invited"?
Was one of these "Iranian security personnel" the Iranian/Hezbollah guy at the Iraqi Interior Ministry who reportedly likes to use power drills during interrogations?
Were any of these "Iranian security personnel" among the 80 Hezbollah agents who reportedly showed up in Najaf and Karbala one month after Bush attacked Iraq in March 2003?
In other words, from what few stories I've read from internet/media sources over the past several years about Iran flooding the "liberated" Iraq with their "security personnel," I figure our forces on the ground are much more aware of Iranian tampering inside Iraq.
Which makes one wonder why the Bush administration has waited until now to start rounding up "Iranian security personnel," many of whom were dispatched to Iraq apparently to exact revenge on the Sunni Baathists for the 1980s Iran/Iraq War.
Secret prisons? Torture chambers? Bodies being discovered all over Baghdad with drill holes?
I figure Bush, Cheney and the rest of the neo-con fools have a pre-planned timeline they are following.
Therefore, any Iranian/Hezbollah "security personnel" were largely left alone until now, letting them run amok and kill countless numbers of Sunni Baathists, disrupting and destroying any chance for a viable "democracy" in Iraq...because Bush and his band of fools have their evil eyes set on Iran next?
In other words, just as Bush and the neo-con fools abandoned Afghanistan in pursuit of their starting a war with Iraq, it looks to me like they are largely abandoning Iraq as they turn their gaze eastward toward Iran.
No wonder Saudi Arabia is acting spooked. With insane friends like Bush and Cheney, who needs enemies? It is apparent that the only foreign policy Bush and the neo-con fools have for the Middle East is a "scorched earth" policy.
Unless Instadick leads the charge into Tehran, I am holding out for more evidence.
Come to think of it, Instadick leading a charge anywhere is the funniest thing I can imagine. Does Dungeon and Dragons involve weaponry? What would such an asswipe carry into battle, anyway? A zip drive?
Al ask not for whom the 'causus' belli trolls, it trolls for thee.
Even if it is a causes belli, that doesn't mean its a good idea to go to war.
thank you
Very tense situation. WHen you mix military with politics, there can be no good end.
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