Backstory

Forced to choose between intensive inquiry into the idea of swapping Ron Artest for Corey Maggette or else looking further at the Horn of African situation, I reluctantly chose what was behind door number two. Take a look back, shall we, at the December 7 State Department briefing. Sean McCormick got a question: "Sean, on Somalia. The Islamists say that they are sort of less than happy with the UN's endorsement of this African peacekeeping force and they say that it's just going to add fuel to the fire. I wondered whether you -- were causing sort of a regional war?" McCormick replies, "no." The questioner wants more: "Do you have any comment?" McCormick elaborates:

Look, this is -- this force was authorized as a training and protection force for the Transitional Federal Institutions. Its approval takes place within the context of policy that we believe that the way forward here is for negotiations between the Islamic Courts and the Transitional Federal Institutions. As long as the Islamic Courts perceive that they can continue to back the Transitional Federal Institutions into a tighter and tighter and smaller and smaller corner, there of course is less and less incentive one would expect for them to actually want to negotiate. So I can understand why they may be less than happy about this. But this is a policy that is endorsed by a number of different countries in the region.
The force will be deployed under the aegis of the IGAD countries, which is the Intergovernmental Authority for Development, and it's an East African regional organization. And the resolution also clearly states that neighboring states: Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti will not deploy troops to Somalia. So it actually specifically addresses this idea that somehow this action will directly lead to some wider conflict on the -- in the Horn of Africa.

In short, the state of play a few weeks ago was this. Islamists were threatening to overrun the powerless Transitional Government unless an international peacekeeping force was sent in to protect them. So the United States sought to get such a force and, indeed, the UN agreed to authorize one. The Islamic Courts Union said that such a move would lead to a regional war. According to The Washington Post, "the United States accommodated a European request to exclude participation by Somalia's neighbors, Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti, in the new force." Our stated policy, as McCormick indicated, was to avoid rather than cause a regional war.

Now at this time, Ethiopia had already "sent thousands of troops [to Somalia] to help prop up the government." Presumably, the deployment of a UN-approved force that would exclude Ethiopian participation (it was to be led by Uganda) would have precluded the Ethiopians from further expanding their ambit of control in Somalia. Thus, the war is launched to pre-empt the deployment of the Ugandan-led force -- apparently with American approval contrary to the policy McCormick outlined earlier in December. New Republic editor in chief Martin Peretz approves, citing the prospects for a Jew/Rastafarian/Christian alliance against Islamist influence in East Africa.

12/27/06 3:14PM del.icio.us this incoming links

Comments

Everytime Matt Y. posts about the Spinemeister, I think, "C'mon Matt, there's no way that sounds as crazy in context."

I'm always wrong.

Posted by: witless chum on December 27, 2006 03:41 PM

Wow. At least when the War Nerd cheers on the war fighting in the Horn of Africa, he doesn't dress it up in bogus morality the way Peretz does. He's refreshingly honest about the fact that he just gets off on all the fighting and killing. Peretz should follow his lead and simply own up to the fact that watching non-muslims kill muslims puts a big ol' smile on his face.

Posted by: Hank Scorpio on December 27, 2006 03:48 PM

OK, when do we get to talk about Ron Artest?

Posted by: too many steves on December 27, 2006 04:00 PM

Wow ... that's just ... bizarre.

Doesn't the US have actual troops in Ethiopia (and not just proxies or intelligence assets)? Is it possible that there is some total State-vs-Defense foulup here?

More importantly, why did the Kings fail to capitalize on their late season success after the Artest trade? Is Bonzi Wells really that valuable?

Posted by: Nicholas Beaudrot on December 27, 2006 04:13 PM

Thus, the war is launched to pre-empt the deployment of the Ugandan-led force -- apparently with American approval contrary to the policy McCormick outlined earlier in December.

The problem with Matthew's analysis is that it is the Somali Islamists that launched the war, not the Ethiopians. The Somali Islamists stupidly declared war on Ethiopia. So Ethiopia attacked them. In all of recorded history, it is always the country that declares the war that we term the party "launching" the war, not the country that gets war declared on it. Matthew appears either to be ignorant of the fact that the Somali Islamists declared war on Ethiopia or, for some reason, to have decided that the custom that has been followed for all of recorded history is wrong.

Posted by: Al on December 27, 2006 04:14 PM

I thought the Kings stole Artest last year, but I'm changing my mind. Artest is somehow convinced that he's a great offensive player, when in fact he's about an average one. If he knew his limitations offensively, he'd probably be above average. So I'm not sure that his defensive awesomeness outweighs the distuption to your team when he starts whining that Mike Bibby, or Jermaine O'Neal, or Elton Brand, or some other clearly superior offensive player, is getting more shots than he is.

That said, he's way, way better than Maggette. The Clippers would get much better in the short term. Artest, Ross, Livingston and Brand are all pretty sweet defensive players. I can't think of another team with so many awesome individual defenders. But it would blow up in their faces before too long, and I don't think adding Artest puts them past San Antonio, Dallas or even Phoenix. Unless Cassell is healthy or Livingston starts playing up to his potential, they've got problems at point guard.

The Kings are screwed either way. If I were them, I might hold out for somebody better than Maggette.

Posted by: too many steves on December 27, 2006 04:21 PM

Link re my above comment.

Posted by: Al on December 27, 2006 04:26 PM

Hmm...it does seem like the Islamists were the one who
set the deadline for Ethiopian troops to withdraw, even
as they encircled Baidoa.
Isn't it equally plausible that the Islamists wanted
to take Baidoa before the UN forces arrived?

Posted by: Anon on December 27, 2006 04:37 PM

That said, he's way, way better than Maggette. The Clippers would get much better in the short term. Artest, Ross, Livingston and Brand are all pretty sweet defensive players.

I dunno, how much better would they really get? Artest is significantly worse than Maggette as a scorer, and slightly worse as a rebounder. He's a (much) better defender but, as you say, the Clippers have a lot of good individual defenders as is. What's more, the existing Ross/Maggette platoon lets you build in offense/defense tradeoffs as the situation warrants.

That said, Artest is better, but to take a gamble on him at this point I'd want a bigger and more unambiguous upgrade than what you'd be looking at with a Maggette trade. The Clips' main actual problem is that Brand has returned to his historical level of performance (very good) rather than to last season's performance (fucking amazing).

Posted by: Matthew Yglesias on December 27, 2006 04:47 PM

Every time I think I have this Somali conflict figured out, the latest news throws me a curveball. Probably best to focus on things I do understand, such as the cardinal rule of Ron Artest: You do not want Ron Artest on your basketball team.

He's a great player when he feels like being one, but he makes any team he plays for, quickly and thoroughly, less than the sum of its parts. You could trade a ham sandwich for Ron Artest and be on the losing end of the deal in the long run.

As a lifelong Pacer fan, just trust me on this one.

Posted by: LaFollette Progressive on December 27, 2006 04:52 PM

Well, they have a few good defenders now, but it still doesn't add up to a real good team defense. They give up 108 points per 100 possessions, which ain't so hot. Adding Artest would give them enough good individual defenders that you couldn't just pick on Cassell or Mobley all day.

They'd miss Maggette's scoring, but they've got other scorers who can take Maggette's place. He's probably their best slasher/scorer and 2nd-best inside scorer, but with Brand, Cassell, Mobley, Tim Thomas, etc, they have a lot of guys who can score.

I still don't think the trade would really be worth it for them. It will make them better in the short term, but probably not enough to get them over the hump and into the finals this year. And then, it will blow up in their faces. I didn't believe it until this year, but Artest really is a cancer.

Posted by: too many steves on December 27, 2006 04:57 PM

Re the Clippers - yeah, I don't know about all those good individual defenders. Their team defense is bad. Hollinger has their team defensive efficiency at 26th in the league - not quite as bad as the Wiz, but getting there (their offensive efficiency is 19th in the league). It could be that they have a bunch of good individual defenders but play poorly as a team. Or it could be that their individual defenders are overrated.

(Part of the problem may be that Kaman was hurt/playing worse than last year too.)

Posted by: Al on December 27, 2006 05:07 PM

MY, new rule: no introducing basketball in an otherwise serious post.

Posted by: A different matt on December 27, 2006 05:07 PM

We're talking about Ron Artest maybe getting traded for Corey Maggette. What's not serious about that?

Posted by: too many steves on December 27, 2006 05:09 PM

Topic 1:
Does anyone seriously believe that Ron Artest will make a valuable long-term contribution to ANY team that he's on, ever? The man has serious emotional problems, and people with emotional problems just can't carry pro sports franchises, no matter how much talent they have. The Clips would have to be insane or desperate to trade for him.

Topic 2:
I highly doubt that this will become a "regional war". The only other countries in the region are Eritrea, which doesn't want to mess with Ethiopia again anytime soon, and Kenya, which has no reason to get involved (the Islamists, for their part, will be too busy fighting Ethiopia to start attacking Kenya). Some kind of war was inevitable, given the CIC's belligerence, and the fact that the CIC hadn't conquered all of Somalia yet...

If only we could somehow trade Artest to Somalia for Sheik Aweys...

Posted by: Mr. Noah on December 27, 2006 05:28 PM

Mr. Noah: On what do you base your assertion that Eritrea "doesn't want to mess with Ethiopia"? My understanding is that it continues to resist peace talks with Ethiopia designed to resolve their border dispute, and that it is likely providing covert support to the Islamic Courts in an effort to bog down enough of Ethiopia's superior military in Somalia that it can at least credibly threaten resumed military action along the Eritrea/Ethiopia border.

Posted by: Michael Sullivan on December 27, 2006 05:40 PM

"Islamists were threatening to overrun the powerless Transitional Government unless an international peacekeeping force was sent in to protect them."

What on earth does this have to do with either Ron Artest or Corey Magette? Neither of them is even Muslim, let alone Islamists.

Posted by: Petey on December 28, 2006 12:43 AM

I believe the Ethiopians intervened because the Ugandan peacekeeping force was going to be diverted to keep an eye on Ron Artest as part of a deal for Maguette.

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