Denver's Odds

I bet the Lakers go further than the Wizards. In fact, I feel certain that they'll get through to the second round. They have the greatest of all basketball advantages: size.

I take offense at the Lakers comment. They're a solid team, and they're still growing together. Just because they're not one of the four best teams in the west doesn't mean they're an also-ran. So there.

Just because they're not one of the four best teams in the west doesn't mean they're an also-ran. So there.

I really meant "Western Conference also-rans" I really just meant the non-sucky West teams that aren't in the top four. The Lakers may well have a bright future ahead of them, and if they played in the East they'd have a decent shot at the Finals.

Obviously, the betting community liked the trade. But they didn't like it that much.

What are you talking about? The contract TRIPLED in a day!!! The market fucking loved that trade.

Think of the contract like a stock. Imagine you bought 100 "Nuggets western champs" contracts at $3.50. Then the fight happens, and people are talking about a 15 game suspension for Carmelo. Your stock plummets down to $2, or 40%. Fuck, you just lost $150. You think about selling for $2, imagining the Nuggets can't win home court if Anthony is gone for a while. Maybe you should cut your losses.

Then the trade. Your $200 contracts from yesterday are now worth $650. You tripled your money in a day. That is better than Google stock, which has been tanking lately. The market loved the trade so much that they think the nuggets are three times more likely to win now, one day later, before Iverson has even made it to Denver.

Maybe you think the Nuggets are still a buy at that price. So Buy.

I think the best way to avoid this little miscommunication we just had, MY, you should speak glowingly about the Lakers at all times. Failing that, you should speak glowingly about the Kings, or any western team. Except the Clippers. Donald Sterling can jump off a bridge.

P.S. How's that book coming along you mention in your profile? Are these basketball posts the best use of your time?

My instincts would put the Lakers a bit ahead of the Nuggets. I think the Nuggets might now be as strong as the Rockets (with a healthy McGrady). But it doesn't mean much because SA, Dallas, and Phoenix are just too strong and deep. And we'll see about Utah. It ultimately just makes the West even more of a bloodbath, which will only help whatever squad ends up representing the East.

I wonder if Minnesota's failure to land Iverson has increased the possibility that the Twolves might move Garnett (hopefully to an East team.)

Denver, Houston and Utah constitute a second tier in the West--teams that have clearly shown serious promise and have serious talent, but have not clearly separated themselves from the other three Western powers, which were before the season title contenders and look at least as good as they did last year.

Denver's trade, combined with Utah's impressive record and quality wins and the development of Yao all really mean that there are six serious contenders in the West (though at least two will be gone in the first round). I think you may have to add the Lakers in the near future, simply because Kobe's teammates are not as horrible as they were in past years. At least in the West, this is not the year for people to be complaining that in the NBA too many teams make it into the playoffs.

We'll see how deep the Mavs are with a hurt Dirk -- whose ankle sprain may never get better for the remainder of the season, ie making him a step slower and unable to elevate consistently at the end of games; less mobile so settle for jumpers more than taking it to the hoop whenever possible. San Antonio is not the juggernaut people make them out to be. The Suns worry me more than any team in the West (I'm a lifelong Lakers fan). Who knows with Houston. I think that Yao has to just sit his butt down near the basket and demand the ball and move it if doubled quickly or dunk if not. He does not take it to the basket enough. Denver will never amount to anything.

funny thing about Dirk is, he sprains an ankle a couple times a season and always seems to come back OK. It's weird -- ankles don't usually work like that, mine being a prime example. Usually, you tweak your ankle and it's neve the same.

Anyway, Cal, your opinion about what Yao should do is interesting, but the guy is averaging 25 ppg, so he seems to be doing OK. I've always thought he should play more in the high post, actually, since he has such great (and underutilized) passing skills.

Well, the Nugs are going to be without JR Smith, Carmelo, and Camby for the next 10 games. Their lineup will consist of Iverson, Boykins, Hilario, Evans, and Najera. Can you say 9 losses in that span? That'll kill your playoff positioning. I'd say the Tradesports contract might be slightly overpriced.

I hope you didnt base your opinion of the Lakers on that recent Wiz v Lakers game. They were without Odom, and played possibly their worst defense of the year. The team has its flaws (inconsistent defense, and occasionally settling for too many three pointers). But, they have easily beaten Spurs, Suns (before this amazing run), Utah, Houston (twice), and Denver (I think, maybe not, but if so, obviously before the trade). They barely lost to Dallas in Dallas on the second night of a back to back and without Odom.

I dont think the Lakers will be a top 4 seed, simply because the Suns look like they are going to run away with it, and the Lakers are REALLY missing Lamar Odom. But, I think the Lakers can beat any of the elite teams in a 7 game series. I guarantee you the Suns dont want to play the Lakers again in the playoffs.

Jason is right. Assuming Odom comes back healthy in Jan. I'd put some money on the Lakers to beat the Suns in a series no matter who has the home court advantage.

Betting on the west winner is foolish. There are 5 teams with a legit shot at winning it: SA, Dallas, Phoenix, Lakers and Denver. Yes, I know Utah is not on that list. Mark my words, the Jazz are not a factor to win the conference. But of the other five any of them could eventually win it (and Houston, if the stars align juuuuust right could do it too).

Sun/Wiz should be a great game tonight. Hopefully we'll see the same Wiz team that played last night and not the ugly one that rears its head a little too often.

It's rare to get lucky enough to buy at the absolute bottom or sell at the absolute top, but y'see that trade at 2 on 12/20? I was the buyer on that particular transaction. I had a big order in, but the seller was only a minnow, unfortunately. Otherwise, I could've finally gotten that yacht I have my eye on.

-----

I agree with Matthew that the Denver contract is still a bit underpriced. I'd say fair value should be somewhere in the 8 - 12 range. However, the true promise of Denver isn't likely to show itself on the basketball court until late Feb to March, so there's probably no rush to establish a position.

Petey's Fair Value to Win the West:

25 Dallas
25 San Antonio
15 Phoenix
9 Houston
9 Utah
9 Denver
5 Lakers
3 Field

The top three teams in the West, before and after the trade, are clearly San Antonio, Dallas, and Phoenix, and if I had to bet, I'd put my money on Phoenix, because they have the MVP.

But after those three, I would pick the Lakers, and if they get healthy, I sure wouldn't want to meet them in the first round.

Basketball is a team game. Denver will have two all-stars trying to figure out how to play together and share the ball. All the other contenders will long since have figured that out, and moved on to defensive assignments--which is where the playoffs are won.

Not sure how you can put the Nugs ahead of the Rockets. McGrady has been gimpy, & the Rockets' defense is downright nasty. What many media folk have failed to realize is the Nugs' defense is not too good & this deal does nothing to improve it. Nugs are in the West 2nd tier with the Rockets, Jazz, & Lakers.

But after those three, I would pick the Lakers, and if they get healthy, I sure wouldn't want to meet them in the first round.

Yeah, baby! They're just giant...if Odom comes back whole, and if they can solve their PG defense problems, they're going to be a handful for just about anybody. But right now, quick PGs just kill them. I wouldn't trust the Lakers to beat the Nuggets right now.

How could Matthew not write about Agent Sand Dollar's game last night? Dude called that he was going to put up 50 against the Suns to punish D'Antoni for being part of cutting him from the national team this summer. How motherfucking crazy is it to call a 50 point game? And how crazy is it to then back up your call?

Seriously.

-----

Sacramento played zone basically the entire game against Iverson, which I've never seen any team do in the NBA. They dared the Nuggets to knock down open 3's, and the Nuggets couldn't do it.

Once the Nuggets get back to full strength, they're going to be utterly dependent on J.R. Smith's long-range shooting to keep teams from continuing to play zone. They could really use another 3 point shooter, but I'm not sure they'll be able to pick up one.

And the Boykins - Iverson backcourt is the stupidest thing in the world. Two guys who both need to pound the ball for half of the 24 second clock. It's like the Marbury/Francis backcourt gone psychedelic.

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