Escalating Silence

I don't know when Scott Stanzel started working as a White House spokesman, but his rejoinder to Joe Biden's anti-escalation views doesn't make much sense: "I would hope that Senator Biden would wait to hear what the president has to say before announcing what he's opposed to." So while the Decider dithers none of us are allowed to offer our opinions about what he should do? I suppose it would be convenient for the White House message team if things worked that way. I think Gary Schmitt from PNAC is insightful on the psychodynamics here:

"No president wants to be remembered as the guy who lost a war," he said. "Who knows whether this is a day late and a dollar short, but it is a striking example of presidential will trying to bend the system to what he wants."

Roughly speaking, the fixed point of the president's thinking is an unwillingness to admit that the venture has failed. For a long time the best way to do that was to simply deny that there was a problem. Political strategy for the midterms, however, dictated that the president had to acknowledge the public's concerns about the war and concede that things weren't going well. At that point, simply staying the course doesn't work anymore. But de-escalating would be an admission of failure, so the only option is to choose escalation. Thus, the idea of an escalation starts getting pushed and we start reading things int he paper like "Top military officials have said that they are open to sending more U.S. troops to Iraq if there is a specific strategic mission for them." Consider the process here. It's not that the president has some policy initiative in mind whose operational requirements dictate a surge in force levels. Rather, locked in the prison of his own denial he came to the conclusion that he should back an escalation, prompting the current search for a mission.

Comments

"Top military officials have said that they are open to sending more U.S. troops to Iraq if there is a specific strategic mission for them."

Which, translated from constitutionally proscribed Pentagonese to english, means: "Don't send any more troops because we got nothing."

Posted by: Col Bat Guano on December 28, 2006 04:52 PM

Stanzel has it completely wrong. Bush has never had anything to say in all the six years he has pretended to hold the office of President, he is an empty suit whose opinions are worthless.

There is no point in waiting for what Bush has to say because he brings neither knowledge nor insight to the table. He does not listen to those whose advice he disagrees with, he fires those that bring unwelcome news. So now he is surrounded by a clique of yes men whose sole qualification for the job is to allow him to maintain his state of ignorance.

After four years of a fiasco it is time to conclude that while it may be that the Iraq war could still be won by a competent President things are only going to get worse under the current incumbent.

Posted by: PHB on December 28, 2006 04:59 PM

During the Vietnam horror LBJ is reputed to have told a confidante that one reason for escalating/continuing the war is that he did not want to be "the first American President to lose a war". So more people died for the sake of one person's ego.

DeanOr in The United States of Amnesia

Posted by: DeanOR on December 28, 2006 05:07 PM

Democrats have to start saying the plainly obvious - Bush has lost this war. He has. His administration has. Rumsfeld has. Whether it ever could have been won doesn't matter at this point in time, just that it is lost, and any escalation is just spending more good lives for a failed cause.

Bush doesn't deserve any more leash. Democrats shouldn't give it to him, the American people don't want them to do it. No more chances for Bush. We all know what the result will be - so why do we have to encourage more failure?

Posted by: PSoTD on December 28, 2006 05:22 PM

The deciding factor in losing this war wasn't Bush's leadership as commander-in-chief but his decision to go to war in the first place. Short of Alexander the Great, no one was going to lead us into victory in Iraq.

Posted by: D. on December 28, 2006 05:33 PM

I'm not even sure that he's trying to find a strategery to justify the surge.

I think he's just waiting and hoping, fingers and toes crossed, that something big happens. Something big to distract the national attention. Sitting around waiting and hoping for a disaster or a miracle. Fingers and toes crossed and watching the mailbox, playing the lottery, not answering the phone, and quiety praying to Jesus in the dark of the night to please please please sweet Jesus save his bacon.

In other words, trailer park hope as national policy.

Posted by: JeffC on December 28, 2006 05:34 PM

Or, return to square one---regime change---as this statement from Chimp today implies:

"The key to success in Iraq is to have a government that's willing to deal with the elements that are trying to prevent this young democracy from succeeding," the president said.

Maliki, we hardly knew ye....

Posted by: Volvo Liberal on December 28, 2006 05:38 PM

A slight variant .

Having accepted that the current approach is failing , Bush must either put in more troops or withdraw.

It's at least arguable that a massive increase might
sufficiently suppress the insurgency so that Maliki could appear to be , and perhaps actually be , in control. But we don't have those troops .

That leaves as the only remaining alternative an increase which is much much smaller and thus proportionately less likely to succeed . In short ,a gamble rather than a tactic.

But for Bush , its appeal is that he knows he will be able to retire without spending the rest of his life wondering whether he just might have succeeded if only he had made this one last attempt.

The disadvantage for the country is obvious. Sad.

Posted by: R M Flanagan on December 28, 2006 05:45 PM

Bush is an obstacle, and he needs to be removed, impeached.

Posted by: sglover on December 28, 2006 05:45 PM

I don't think it is Iraq that Bush and the Neocons are worried about. I think it is American hegemony in the Middle East generally. They refuse to criticize Israel for any outrageous thing that the Israeli's do; they are unwilling to look at the Israel-Palestine conflict objectively and with some notion of justice, and they are faced with China, Iran, Russia, all of which can be accessed over land, that are waiting for American policy to completely disintegrate so they can pick up the pieces as well as the oil.

Posted by: cadabra on December 28, 2006 06:03 PM

Iraq is the beginning. As the army attacks Iraq, the US gov't erodes rights at home by suspending habeas corpus, stealing private lands, banning books like "America Deceived" from Amazon, rigging elections, conducting warrantless wiretaps and starting 2 illegal wars based on lies. Soon, another US false-flag operation will occur (sinking of an Aircraft Carrier by Mossad) and the US will invade Iran, (on behalf of Israel).
Final link (before Google Books bends to gov't demands and censors the title):
America Deceived (book)

Posted by: 5th of November on December 28, 2006 06:05 PM

Dems need to begin NOW to carefully construct the terms which will be used to evaluate the merits of Bush's forthcoming plan to escalate this war. They can't just wait to hear it and react -- their typical approach.

They have to carefully lay out all of the questions (conditions) that the plan must answer -- more troops?, for what specific purpose?, and for how long? with how many casualties? They have to lay out loudly and specifically what the American people need to know for the plan to be considered a serious one.

They have to state NOW that platitudes like "victory with honor," "staying until the job is done" and similar bullshit won't be acceptable as rationales. This is exactly what Bush and Rove are afraid that Biden is about to do. This is their worst nightmare: that by the time this dumb fuck decides on how to lie to the American people yet again, a trap will have been set that leads most Americans to see clearly that this is just more of the same bullshit.

If these chicken shit Dem leaders won't do that, they and we will get steamrolled once again by these assholes.

Posted by: econobuzz on December 28, 2006 06:48 PM

There comes a time in every boys life when he learns the lesson of being wrong and man enough to admit it. Bush Sr. should give his simple son a copy of John F. Kennedy's Profiles In Courage. (hopefully touching the book won't burn the ex-President's fingers)

George Jr. can save his legacy if he just grew up and started taking the blame for his mistakes and start correcting them. He would be called courageous and probably get his head on Mt. Rushnore.

Posted by: Jim DeRosa on December 28, 2006 06:52 PM

fact is this: Bush do not respect the MISLAMS. With propre respect for Mislam what we would half is a holy iyeatolah to lead and guide are desissions. Insted, we half BUSH and his NEOCONS. With hillary clinton for president we would just ASK the MISLAMS what they want and give to them. THEN AND ONLY THEN will their be piets in the middle east.

Hillary for president TODAY!

In PEEACH BUSH!

Posted by: hillary for president on December 28, 2006 08:00 PM

Bush has to know by now that as things stand his legacy looks like a pile of crap.

Given the way his mind works, he may well decide that the only way to salvage his presidency is to go double-or-nothing by starting a war with Iran.

Why not? It might just work, even nuclear weapons might not be ruled out.

The vital question is: Who is going to stop him?

Posted by: bosco on December 28, 2006 08:13 PM

In fairness to the Democrats, this is one example where their stalling and dithering over the last 6 weeks is somewhat justified; they aren't actually the seated majority party yet, and Congress isn't in session. I don't blame them for wanting to wait until they have their chairpeople with gavels in hand before they go on the attack, or at least lay out very clear terms.

Bush waiting until after the election to fire Rumsfeld and admit that his course was failing was politics. If the Democrats haven't made significant progress, at the very least rhetorically, by Groundhog Day, then we can get on them for being the wimps that they may be.

Posted by: doofman on December 28, 2006 08:15 PM

Note how we don't hear anymore about a "double down" since the other day when our deaths in Iraq equalled those on 9-11.

That's because aWol has already "doubled down" the troops.

Posted by: Hedley Lamarr on December 28, 2006 08:28 PM

I certainly would never argue with any interpretation of what Bush is doing that rests on his very fragile narcissism - he certainly has that in spades. But I’m also wary of armchair psychiatrizing his decisions based on his frailties - mostly because I don’t believe he’s anything like the Decider he claims to be. I think there’s a Mommy, Daddy, and baby Brother involved in every decision. I don’t mean George Senior, Barbara, and Jeb. I mean Condi Rice, Dick Cheney, and Karl Rove. I think he’s going to "surge" for other reasons:

We went to Iraq to get a piece of the "Oil Corridor." Any withdrawal would be saying goodbye to that dream. Cheney just can’t let it go. His audience is the big guys in the oil business, and he told them he’d get them into the Iraq Oil Fields. We’re so there for oil that Cheney also can’t give up the idea of "regime change" in Iran for the exact same reasons as he had in Iraq. So a "surge" puts more troops as a backup for a bombing Iran operation - which is probably still in the works.

My guess: Karl Rove is scripting this pretend "thinking about things" period. Condi Rice is trying to talk them out of bombing Iran. And Dick Cheney has already drawn up plans for the bombing run.

So, as much appeal as your thesis has, I think a better approach to analyzing Bush’s decisions is to focus on the "Dark Lords" he’s channelling.

Posted by: Mickey on December 28, 2006 09:18 PM

George W Bush is a blockhead, who represents the cutting edge of tactical thought the way a fruit bat represents the cutting edge of chess. Those who actually voted for him are equally deserving of the blockhead label, and those who voted for him twice should be sterilized so they cannot breed.

The only thing that would terrify me more than George Bush sending me into battle would be the knowledge that he is managing my investment portfolio while I'm gone.

Oh, wait....that's exactly what will happen to those poor devils who will "surge" into Iraq.

Posted by: Mark on December 28, 2006 09:24 PM

The real irony here is that so much political energy was expended -- in the election, by the IRG -- to try to get Bush to change course, and the net result is escalation, not de-escalation. In hindsight, it seems obvious that this would happen: Bush can't leave Iraq; the political market won't bear stay the course any longer, which leaves only one direction to go.

Maybe we all (including Jim Baker) would have been best to leave bad enough alone. Or, as the saying goes: Don't just do something, stand there.

Posted by: Peter Principle on December 28, 2006 09:31 PM

very astute observation

Posted by: bakho on December 28, 2006 09:45 PM

Time to pull out the old storyb..err...playbook-

I can see the White House staff scurrying around to set up another reading of My Pet Goat. When he starts reading, keep an eye on the skies.

Impeach this lunatic.

Posted by: ZippityDon't on December 29, 2006 12:40 AM

Shh, kids. Daddy is thinking.

Posted by: Jose Padilla on December 29, 2006 10:04 AM

Matt has nailed it. In Bush's tiny, cocaine and alcohol-addled brain, there is no other choice but to escalate because to do otherwise is to admit defeat. Long-time criminals and substance abusers like Bush live in a world of denial. That is the only way they can function. Why else would he be going against the recommendations of a blue ribbon panel, as well as 90 percent of the American public?

There is no logical reason to send in more troops. What are they going to do besides walk and drive around Baghdad, getting shot at and blown to smithereens by IEDs?

Posted by: The Conservative Deflator on December 29, 2006 11:08 AM

Immediately after the 9/11 attacks, President Bush sat down to play poker with the biggest stack of chips at the table, the odds-on favorite to win one of the highest-stakes games ever played. This huge initial chip advantage was built from a unified and supportive citizenry at home, a mainstream media that rarely questioned his judgment or intentions, an international community prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt, and a military machine bigger than the next couple dozen countries combined. But since those early heady days, Bush and his close advisers and neocon allies have made one horrendous decision after another. The great tragedy, of course, is that the president has not only been playing with his own chips. Rather, in this game his poor play has cost the lives of our courageous soldiers and many Iraqi civilians, our country's stature in the world, and our national resources desperately needed for other purposes, domestic and international.

Others, realizing how poorly they've been playing, would recognize that they don't belong at the table--or at least conclude that they had entered the wrong game. Not so with the president. Rather, all signs suggest that this stubborn poker player is unlikely to learn any constructive lessons from his abysmal performance. There are at least five reasons why this is so. First, although a relative novice at the game, he has refused to prepare adequately, hasn't mastered the likelihood of various outcomes, and seemingly hasn't even tried to understand his opponents and their style of play. Second, he has cultivated and embraced an Old West saloon mentality where a loaded six-shooter and a quick draw can turn losing hands into winners. Third, he has a personal history of being bailed out whenever he has come up short in the past, whether through family connections or the highest reaches of our judicial system. Fourth, he has convinced himself that God is personally by his side, presumably with an unlimited supply of aces. And fifth, he is now concerned about his legacy, and likely suspects that only a miraculously successful reshaping of Iraq and the Middle East can save him from being a frequent answer in "worst president ever" debates in the decades ahead.

My list is undoubtedly incomplete, but it is daunting. It suggests that Bush will ultimately be driven to go "all in" regardless of any wiser counsel he might receive. And at the very least, "all in" means continuing to play the Iraq hands as he has done thus far--or perhaps with even greater recklessness and abandon. More frightening still, "all in" may mean saving his very last stack of chips for Iran. As a new year begins, we should all be asking whether anyone can pull him away from the table before it is (again) too late.

P.S. As an addendum, the appeals Bush and his supporters will use in defense of their actions are predictable. I describe some of them in detail in an online video entitled "Dangerous Ideas: How Conservatives Exploit Our Five Core Concerns" that can be viewed at: 
http://www.eidelsonconsulting.com/blog/2 006/09/how_conservatives_exploit_our.html

Posted by: Roy Eidelson on December 29, 2006 11:41 AM

Corrected URL for video mentioned in preceding comment:

http://www.eidelsonconsulting.com/blog/2006/09/how_conservatives_exploit_our.html

Posted by: Roy Eidelson on December 29, 2006 11:44 AM

It's not that the president has some policy initiative in mind whose operational requirements dictate a surge in force levels.

You mean, other than getting into a war with Iran?

m, I mean, they'd be handy for that, no?

Posted by: max on December 29, 2006 12:04 PM

5th of November: banning books like "America Deceived" from Amazon,

That would be this book on, um, Amazon.com?

Posted by: DrBB on December 29, 2006 12:54 PM

Max; if the building conflict with Iran opens as a ground war, infantry/armour against infantry/armour, there goes the ball game. Any attack on Iran was always envisioned as opening with air strikes, more air strikes if needed. Therefore it is most unlikely that ground troops are being "surged" to prepare for a charge on Tehran. They'd never make it. Not even Bush, the stupidest president ever - and certainly a candidate for stupidest individual in America - would be that stupid.

Posted by: Mark on December 29, 2006 03:37 PM

I don't quite agree. Its all part of the administration's one percent doctrine: if a crazy (but simple) idea has 1 percent chance of succeeding, go for it, if some other course of action (involving some thinking) has better chances, ignore it. Its all hail Marys, no running the ball.

Posted by: Otto on December 29, 2006 08:56 PM

Bush is now in the Berlin Bunker 1945-phase of his Presidency.
He will summon-up armies to drive the enemy away..He will indulge in wild dreams,and talk only to those who echo what he says.
Then the real world will finally intrude and what then for him??
..at least Hitler did away with himself !

Posted by: brian on December 29, 2006 11:44 PM

To Mickey on December 28 at 9:18 p.m.:

I'm afraid you got it right. The Decider is mainlining the "Dark Lords," and the national New Year's resolution his delay attenuates shall no doubt show that the Secretary of State can not stop this country from getting shot in the face.

Posted by: Woodrock on December 30, 2006 02:37 AM

For nearly a year leading up to the invasion of Iraq, it was like a cloud of doomed inevitability was hanging over Washington. The biggest problem was that Bush was popular; he had momentum, support and ants in his pants. Maybe we could have invented some alternative that would have made Bush look like a winner for backing down. Maybe we were too downtrodden and our voices were too high-pitched because no one was listening.

Yglesias' post reminded me of that near-year because this is what it would have looked like if Bush didn't have momentum or support back then.

Posted by: wanderin on December 30, 2006 01:21 PM

For nearly a year leading up to the invasion of Iraq, it was like a cloud of doomed inevitability was hanging over Washington. The biggest problem was that Bush was popular; he had momentum, support and ants in his pants. Maybe we could have invented some alternative that would have made Bush look like a winner for backing down. Maybe we were too downtrodden and our voices were too high-pitched because no one was listening.

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Posted by: Kablo Kanalları on December 11, 2007 09:05 AM

So, as much appeal as your thesis has, I think a better approach to analyzing Bush’s decisions is to focus on the "Dark Lords" he’s channelling.

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Posted by: tarkan metamorfoz on January 5, 2008 01:29 PM

Okyanusun ortasında küreksiz bir sandalda olan ve gün geçtikçe kendini daha da çıkmaza itenlere bir pusula olmak istedik.
adsl kota Açılamayan kalplere ve dilinin ucuna gelipte, söylenemeyen sözlere bir çıkış kapısı olmak istedik..

Posted by: sevgi on January 5, 2008 06:52 PM

Okyanusun ortasında küreksiz bir sandalda olan ve gün geçtikçe kendini daha da çıkmaza itenlere bir pusula olmak istedik.
lezbiyen Açılamayan kalplere ve dilinin ucuna gelipte, söylenemeyen sözlere bir çıkış kapısı olmak istedik..

Posted by: aşk on January 5, 2008 06:53 PM

thank you very much

Posted by: sevgi on January 9, 2008 02:44 AM

thank you very much

Posted by: sohbet on January 9, 2008 02:45 AM

nice

Posted by: e-okul on January 9, 2008 09:35 PM

tedavisi

Posted by: tedavisi on January 9, 2008 09:35 PM

thanks

Posted by: sex on January 9, 2008 09:36 PM

Interesting article!
Thanks ...

Posted by: Usb flashdrive on January 27, 2008 09:47 AM

Thanks

Posted by: Atakan on January 28, 2008 06:19 PM

thanks

Posted by: sevgi on January 29, 2008 05:32 AM

After four years of a fiasco it is time to conclude that while it may be that the Iraq war could still be won by a competent President things are only going to get worse under the current incumbent.thanks

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