Maggette/Artest

I think the concept you're tiptoeing around here is team chemistry. Funny where this moneyball stuff takes you sometimes.

I have to disagree here. Ron Artest would be a nice addition to the Clippers. The Clips could use a little macho elan and Artest certainly does bring that to the table. Likewise, Artest is a terrific defensive player which means that he can be out on the court at all times. Because he can be on the floor, Artest can also serve as a secondary go-to guy behind Elton Brand in a way that Magette couldn't. The Clips should think carefully about whether they can deal with the Artest weirdness factor. If they can, though Maggette for Artest would be a good trade. Artest just brings more to the table than Maggette.

The reason the Clips should do the deal is that Magette is not happy in LA. He is acting like a spoiled child, but the is the NBA where acting spoiled has been elevated to an art form. Much as I dislike rewarding bad behavior it is a fact of life in the NBA, so go ahead and pull the trigger. The Clips might get 1-2 years out of Artest before he melts down again and demands another trade.

Artest will kill any team he's on. No team will ever win a championship with him, because he'll lose it long before it gets to that point, and an extra 5 or even 10 wins a season isn't worth the bother. I know it sounds insane, but I really don't understand why any team in the league would sign him, even for free.

I think the concept you're tiptoeing around here is team chemistry. Funny where this moneyball stuff takes you sometimes.

Two things: First, the idea that acquiring Ron Artest is the answer to your team's chemistry problems is ridiculous. If you want to trade Maggette to improve chemistry, fine, but trade him for a good chemistry guy.

Second, what I'm trying to say is that it's not clear there really is a chemistry problem. It's not the case that there's been an across-the-board decline in Clipper productivity. Rather, Brand is playing at the level he's historically played at and Cassell is just playing less. People forget that last year's Clippers were hardly a dominating squad -- they would have lost in the first round under a rational seeding system, and would have been crushed by a healthy Phoenix team.

It's not the case that there's been an across-the-board decline in Clipper productivity. Rather, Brand is playing at the level he's historically played at and Cassell is just playing less.

???

Brand is playing at his historic level, but that certainly IS a decline from last year's productivity.

Cassell is hurt, which accounts for his decline in minutes, leading to a decline in productivity as compared to last year. Just as important, his minutes aren't being replaced by a productive player - Livingston's minutes are only up slightly. So whether or not Cassell is producing the same per minute, the Clippers are getting less productive play overall from those minutes than they got last year.

Kaman has been hurt and is less productive than last year.

Tim Thomas is less productive than he was last year for PHO and is less productive than Radmanovic (the guy Radmanovic basically replaced) was last year for the Clippers.

Maggette is about par with last year on most stats except that he's scoring less, so I'd say he is slightly less productive than last year.

The only important guy who is producing better than last year is Livingston, and even that not so much.

Seems to me that there is a general decline here.

That said, I wouldn't do the deal either, for the reasons Matthew states.

Also, if Maggette is really unhappy, rather than trading him for Artest, why don't they try starting him? I'll bet dollars to doughnuts that a big part of Maggette's unhappiness is Dunleavy's refusal to put him the starting lineup, especially now that Tim Thomas is starting ahead of him. And whatever Dunleavy's excuse is, it isn't worth having to trade for Artest.

to add on to al's point: the clipper story is sam cassell, pure and simple, in my estimation.

and the idea that you'd start tim thomas over maggette is quite strange to me: i don't really follow the clips that closely or anything, but i assumed an injury, not a voluntary choice by dunleavy!

the idea that you'd start tim thomas over maggette is quite strange to me

Best guess is that this is one of these things where management makes a bad decision (signing Tim Thomas even though everyone knew he'd go back to his non-contract-year ways) and then won't admit it was a bad decision so gives lots of playing time to a guy they shouldn't have acquired.

It's worth pointing out that baseball is a much more individualistic game than basketball, so it's reasonable that chemistry matters more.

Also it seems that basketball players do in fact slack off in cases where they're not getting what they want. It's pretty clear that players have internalized the notion that the regular season doesn't matter at all, since every decent team gets into the playoffs, and the important thing to do is be healthy in May and June. So unlike football, where there's always something to play for, and baseball, where it's still non-trivial to make the playoffs, you can phone it in for a third of the season and still be fine. I sort of wonder why this phenomenon hasn't hit hockey.

Maggette has always been a guy who'd rather be the star on a losing team than a team player on a winning team. He's been a whiner ever since Dunleavy arrived. He could be the Sixth Man of the Year with some effort and sacrifice, but he'll never buy into not starting. I'm not sure if Artest is the answer, but he'll have an immediate impact, and the Clippers need an immediate impact player. We're all still waiting for Livingston to live up to his potential, and Kaman has to play well to take the pressure off Brand and vice versa.

"Artest, meanwhile, isn't that much better than Maggette."

Well, yes he is. He's a significantly better player.

And add to that the fact that Maggette is just as much of a head case as Ron-Ron. Maggette is either a bench player for a good team - ala Jerry Stackhouse. Or he's a starter for a bad team - ala pre-Dallas Jerry Stackhouse. But he's spent the past couple of years continually refusing to see that logic.

Considering that both players are confused about their proper roles and have a history of being disruptive, why not pick up the significantly better player?

This is a no-brainer for the Clips. The calculus for the Kings is a bit more complex.

"Best guess is that this is one of these things where management makes a bad decision (signing Tim Thomas even though everyone knew he'd go back to his non-contract-year ways)"

Paying TT $5m/yr wasn't a bad decision, and considering the widespread competition for his services, I'd say "everyone" didn't agree with you.

Maggette is just as much of a head case as Ron-Ron

Very different cases. Corey Maggette is a selfish scorer, constantly hurt, and supposedly a whiner. Ron Artest has some kind of serious emotional disorder.

"Very different cases. Corey Maggette is a selfish scorer, constantly hurt, and supposedly a whiner. Ron Artest has some kind of serious emotional disorder."

Yup. Talent levels aside, I'd rather have Artest on my team if I were the Clips. His "serious emotional disorder" is very Rodman-esque. He'd be just fine on a team with a coach he respects with a shot at winning. Ron-Ron just needs a purpose larger than himself.

So, I'd want to do this trade if I were the Clips, even if the talent levels of Maggette and Artest were even. And since the talent levels aren't even, it's a real no-brainer from the Clips POV.

Artest is a far superior player than Maggette. Maggette is a one-dimensional player who is useless without the ball. His only asset on the floor other than getting to the free throw line is his stong body does well as a rebounder. Ron Artest is a championship calibur player if only he wasn't insane.

The Clips decline this season was entirely predictable based on the obvious career year Brand was having and the great play they got out of Cassell. It was bound to come down a notch for them.

This would be a smart move for them. Dunleavy is the kind of coach that could (if it's possible) rein in Artest -- the Kings made a major mistake in hiring Mussleman who wasn't ever going to have enough respect from his players to make it work. The Clips on the other hand have a deep squad and a coach who they all respect meaning Artest would feel the pressure from all quarters to fall into line. With his talent it could be quite a boon for them.

You're all insane. Artest has killed every single team he's been on. Who cares that he's "better" than Maggette?

Petey is particularly insane if he denies that we all knew that Tim Thomas would suck this year.

It always disturbs me when I agree with Petey on basketball, but I agree with Petey on basketball insofar as Artest is far superior to Maggette. Non-insane Artest is a top 10-15 player, and while the insanity drops the stock somewhat, he would give the Clips a significant upgrade in terms of toughness and defense. Whatever minor hit they might take in terms of scoring is offset by the fact that they already have plenty of scoring between Brand, Cassell, Cat Mobley and TT. Plus Artest can take up some of the ball-handling/play-making slack left by Sammy C's doldrums/reduced PT.

I strongly disagree WRT to Thomas - the fact that other teams were also bidding just indicates that the Clippers were bitten by the "Winner's Curse". Completely predictably, I might add.

"Who cares that he's "better" than Maggette?"

Teams that are interested in going deep into the playoffs care.

"Artest has killed every single team he's been on."

To repeat myself, ogged, I'd urge you to review the career of Dennis Rodman. Artest will play in certain situations, and will be a distraction in certain other situations. I think he'd play on the Clips.

"the fact that other teams were also bidding just indicates that the Clippers were bitten by the "Winner's Curse"

TT is useless until the playoffs roll around. Once the matchups stay the same from game to game, and once Brand is getting regularly double-teamed, TT will win you a few games by spacing the floor and hitting outside shots. He's worth just about exactly what he's getting.

I'd want him on the Nuggets come playoff time.

Petey, I don't think Rodman is an appropriate analogy here either. Sure, Rodman was and is a weirdo alcoholic who didn't particularly care about anyone or anything but himself. The problem with him was getting him to turn on the intensity in the game rather than getting all involved outside nonsense he was up to. Artest has the opposite problem: he can't turn off the out-of-control intensity. He has a long history of getting into fights with people and/or smashing things. For god's sake, he broke two of Michael Jordan's ribs in a pickup game. If I were an NBA player I might get annoyed about working with Corey Maggette, but I'd be downright alarmed at the prospect of working with Artest.

Petey,

I agree that Artest is much better than Maggette. But even with Artest, the Clippers aren't going deep into the playoffs. Artest for Maggette would make the Clipper better this season, but not good enough to make the conference finals, and then it would blow up in their face, so why bother?

Artest is crazier than Rodman. Rodman was mostly pretending to be crazy. Also, Artest is starting to convince me that he's overrated as a player. Yes, he's a top-5 defensive guy, but I think he's an offensive liability. He's somehow convinced himself that he's a great 2-way player, and he should have the ball all the time and take lots of shots. He's very, very wrong. He's never going to be satisfied with his offensive role, unless he gets a very stupid coach who decides to build his offensive around Artest and his bricklayer's touch.

If you're the Kings, it's a lose-lose. I thought they made a great move last year in trading for Artest, but I was wrong. They're screwed.

Why do you think TT will play the way he did in last year's playoffs, now that he's got a big contract? He never played that way before, and he did play in a few playoff serieseseses.

"For god's sake, he broke two of Michael Jordan's ribs in a pickup game."

And interestingly, Jordan has always had very complementary things to say about Ron-Ron since the incident.

And FWIW, finding out exactly what went down the day Jordan broke his ribs is the one NBA secret I'd most love to find out the truth behind. There have been so many different, conflicting stories told.

Petey,

Maybe MJ is afraid Ron-Ron is going to hunt him down and break another couple of ribs.

Does anybody else think there's an inverse correlation between basketball talent and GM talent? Jordan = complete moron as a GM. Elgin Baylor = nice job lately, but still, pretty awful career as a GM. Bird = good start, but looking pretty bad lately. Isiah = we all know (well, all of us but Petey). McHale = worse than Isiah. Chris Mullin = only looks good in comparison to the previous Warrions GMs. Now look at the mediocre players. John Paxson is doing a good job. Danny Ferry hasn't done too well, but at least he's got a winning team. Danny Ainge doesn't have a winning team, but he's drafted some nice young players.

I know, Joe Dumars doesn't fit the theory at all.

too many steves at 7:17 gets it all exactly right (except for thinking the Kings made a good move last year).

Rumor has it that Yglesias is going to trade Petey to Little Green Footballs for a couple of commenter prospects.

but I think he's an offensive liability

I strongly disagree. If he's standing around shooting J's, he's nothing special, see also Maggette, Corey, though. When he decides to mix it up a little he demands double teams, draws fouls and just all around beats the crap out of the dude guarding him.

I don't think Petey or I are saying that the Clips become front-runners if they make the deal - they do make a significant upgrade however. If you go for the theory that this deal wouldn't help them enough this year and would screw them next year, then you are better served by blowing it up and starting over now, which I guess is a vote against the trade, but not at all a vote for standing pat, or dealing just Maggette.

Two things: First, the idea that acquiring Ron Artest is the answer to your team's chemistry problems is ridiculous.

You've taken my statement to mean the exact opposite of what I was implying. I guess the comment was a little cryptic. Still, I wonder what all the Moneyball math is good for when in the final analysis you're relying on impressionistic criteria like team chemistry.

Artest could certainly be an above-average offensive player. Sometimes, he's a very, very good one. But since he's convinced himself he's Tracy McGrady at one end and Ron Artest at the other, he does things he shouldn't be doing. Like shoot from outside the key.

That said, I stand by my statement that he's much better than Maggette. Way better on D, only slightly worse on offense.

I think the Clips have plenty of time to find the pieces they need (as long as Livingston steps up pretty soon -- he's been looking better lately). There's no need to panic and get Artest just to make a run this year.

To repeat myself, ogged, I'd urge you to review the career of Dennis Rodman. Artest will play in certain situations, and will be a distraction in certain other situations. I think he'd play on the Clips.

Where's the evidence that Artest "will play in certain situations"? Rodman has five rings. Artest has been past the first round of the playoffs exactly once.

I thought they made a great move last year in trading for Artest, but I was wrong.

I don't like Artest either (and I agree that the Clippers shouldn't make the trade for him), but I think you're wrong about the Sacramento-Indiana trade. Sacto took a risk. Artest's a high risk, high reward guy, since we all agree he's got talent. Doesn't look like the risk will pay off for Sacto on the court, but you need to wait until they get rid of him to determine whether the trade was a success or not. They may be able to turn him into something valuable. Think about the other side of the trade - Peja didn't work out for Indy either on the court AND it looked like they were going to lose him in free agency, but through some nice maneuvering Indy turned Peja into Al Harrington, which isn't all that bad. You've got to wait and see how it pans out for Sacto before ripping the trade.

Artest and Q Ross could nullify any guard dominated teams in the West. Doesn't help if you play Dallas, San Antonio or Utah in the playoffs.

Too many steves at 7:31pm, re: player talent vs. GM talent:

Jerry West!

Couple random thoughts from a Kings fan/West Coaster.

Based just on, you know watching them and not getting all statty, offensively, Maggette and Artest are actually very similar players. There both have an unusual combination of strength and quickness and are at their best when driving to the hoop. And they both tend to hurt their team when not doing this and instead shooting jump shots.

Artest is great ball handler for his size - he basically played point guard last year when Bibby was resting. We all know he is a top 5 defense guy, but when he's into it, his defense and agressiveness can take over and change a team. The Kings were 18-24 before they got him and 26-14 after. No way Maggette has that sort of impact on a team.

Maggette is not a very good defensive player (especially given his physical attributes), not a great outside shooter, not a great passer, etc. He rebounds fairly well, drives to the basket well and does a great job getting to the line and making free throws. But as another commenter pointed out, a lot of 6th men do this. He has nowhere near the value to a team Artest can have.

The problem with Artest is when he begins to think he is the teams main offensive weapon as a jump shooter. When driving to the basket he is great. But when he begins to shoot more he hurts the team as this is when is FG% falls below 40%. As an example, this year he is averaging almost 4 3-point attempts a game and making less than 30% of them.

This is related to the current issue in Sacramento, Artest thinks it is his team offensively and is clashing with Bibby. Because he seems to be somewhat mentally ill, this leads to Ron-Ron getting angry, screaming at teammates, not speaking to anyone for four days, etc.

If I'm a Clipper fan who knows he can't play second fiddle to Bibby, I'd be worried about the prospect of him playing third fiddle to Brand and Cassell. Of course, he is tempting because if he COULD do that, and only play to his strengths, he's a great addition and an exteme bargain ($7-8 million a year for next couple years). That's why, as a Kings fan, it is a major disappointment that it looks like it will not work out. Of course, given that no team has really "worked out" for Artest, it isn't really a suprise.

Re: to many steves comments. He is right that Artest is not Rodman. Rodman for the most part reigned it in on the court. Artest's craziness severely affects his ability to help his team win. But I think he is wrong the trade was a major mistake. Artest singlehandedly got them to the playoffs last year. He kept interest in the team alive. They were not going to resign Peja and it is not certain they could have done a sign and trade so they didn't really give up anything, so even if they trade him for an inferior Maggette (who is a relative bargain at $7 millionish) they are ahead. They are better of for having made the trade.

"Rumor has it that Yglesias is going to trade Petey to Little Green Footballs for a couple of commenter prospects."

Beware, ogged. The chatter I've heard is that Yglesias is going to trade me to Unfogged in a salary dump, at which point I'll just eat up your cap space without really producing any numbers.

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