Next for Miller
Chad Ford says: "I think Philly made a good deal. They weren't getting anything more than what they got ... roughly $8 million in cap relief, two late first round picks and a very good starting point guard. I think Andre Miller is underrated and a good fit in Philly. They add Greg Oden or Kevin Durant to that team next year and they're right back in the playoffs."
Agreed that Miller is underrated and a very good starting point guard. Disagreed that he's a good fit in Philly. Philly is looking to lose a lot of games and get a high pick to add to the two low first-rounders they're getting from Denver. That means you don't want a good point guard who also happens to be too old to really count as a "rebuilding" piece. It seems to me that the Sixers and the Heat should be running to swap Miller for James Posey and his expiring contract. The Heat are looking to win now, and Gary Payton, despite his illustrious career, is pretty awful at this point. Meanwhile, absent Miller the Sixers should be bad enough to take a serious run at a top-three pick.
Comments
Incidentally, let's not understate the importance of Greg Oden. I'm sure Kevin Durant's a good player, but Oden's fourth game was his worst so far. He grabbed nine rebounds and scored 18 points on 8-15 shooting (2-4 from the line), plus one block and one assist in 35 minutes. And he can't use his good hand 'cuz it's broken and he's not in shape yet. He turns 19 in January.
He's also not playing against the best of the sophomore class, right? This is basically an extension of his senior year in HS for him. Simmons has my back on the AI trade.
I think it's hard to criticize the trade from King's perspective unless someone can point to a better deal that was on the table. Or even put it another way. Play GM of some other team. What deal would you have offered Philly that was more attractive than Miller, an expiring contract, and two draft picks?
I have to think the Clips could have come up with a better offer. If you have AI, you don't need Cassell. The Clips are looking to deal Maggette, who is underpaid, and therefore likely to come off the books at the same time as Cassell--a year and a half from now. Their first round pick is, at the moment, likely to be better than Denver's. Maybe you have throw in some garbage to make the salary terms work, but it doesn't look undoable.
Maybe the Clips didn't make the offer for salary cap reasons. But AI on the Clips would immediately and indefinitely make them nearly as big a ticket as the Lakers. Win-win.
How much is Miller paid over the next 2 years? It seems that having him as an elder statesment, plus the lottery pick plus the two low-first rounders, plus whatever else you can afford, might lead to a reasonable team.
That means you don't want a good point guard who also happens to be too old to really count as a "rebuilding" piece.
Agreed. And here's betting Philly agrees, too, and that we'll see them pick up another first round pick. All in all I tend to think Philly did ok. I mean, AI's a great player and all, but it's not like they were going anywhere with him on the team. Unlike, say, the McHale era Celtics of circa 1987, the Sixers got something for Iverson before his trade value truly plummeted (clearly his value was headed south pretty quickly as it was). My guess is they'll likely have ended up converting AI into three 1st round picks before it's over. Now, they've just gotta lose, lose, lose this season, and not funk up their picks next June, and they're good to go. The trade seems a bigger risk for Denver than for Philly. Given Iverson's age, I think it makes sense to deal for him ONLY if you're, like, a single piece away from being a legitimate contender for a title, or might be in this position, say, by next season. I can't see it. Maybe in three seasons, who knows. But by then Iverson could be ready for a walker, or at least a cane. Still, should make for some enhanced ad dollars and ticket revenue out in Denver.
But what about the fact that you can't be too obvious about tanking for the #1 pick? I mean, the league would get pissed if you were actively trying to lose, right?
If kenyon martin is 80% of the player he was before his knees were repaired after he comes back, the nugs have a chance next year or the year after. Then AI comes off the books. Worth a shot if you're willing to pay the lux tax.
King should go down in flames if they keep Miller and the Sixers end up with a better record than the Bobcats or Grizzlies.
But what about the fact that you can't be too obvious about tanking for the #1 pick? I mean, the league would get pissed if you were actively trying to lose, right?
You can't purposely lose games, but there's nothing wrong with depriving your team of talent.
Disagree that Miller is "too old" to be part of a rebuilt Sixers team - he's only 30, and since he doesn't rely on his hops or athleticism, he can be productive for at least 4 or 5 more years.
And again, since it is a lottery, they're not trying to get Greg Oden; they're trying to get ping pong balls. You simply can't put all your eggs in the Oden basket when the BEST you can do is get a 25% chance at him. You've got to weight the value of the extra 5% or 10% chance at Oden you get by trading Miller and completely tanking against the value of having a decent PG going forward. I don't think it is that easy a calculation to simply say "you need to go for Oden".
I agree with Al, having watched ML Carr's legendary Tim Duncan-inspired tank with the Celtics. It's a pretty dangerous move, even though Oden is shooting 89% from the field with one hand. (Of course, the C's still got Chauncey Billups, but little Rick Pitino took care of that.)
Still, if you're Billy King, it might be worth the gamble, since you're pretty much assured of being fired anyway.
Agree with Al, for the reasons mentioned by owenz. If the Sixers have the worst record in the league, they can do no worse than the No. 4 pic. But there are other terrible teams and I could see the Sixers' pick ranging from the first pick to the sixth pick. Moreover, it's not as if one great player is enough. See, e.g., Garnett.
You can't purposely lose games, but there's nothing wrong with depriving your team of talent.
Doesn't the commissioner have the power to veto trades for this very reason?
Matt: "long time-first time" here. Glad to see you're at least incidentally following the Buckeyes, one of my primary raisons d'etre. Unless you're looking at more than Oden's stat lines, though, you're probably not aware that there's a better-than-even chance that he plays more than one year at Ohio State. There are lots of reports - going back to when he was a recruit, and mostly written by people who have more than a passing familiarity with Greg - in which he addresses his intentions vis-a-vis the probable length of his college career, and he mostly discounts the one-and-done CW. Plus, there's no reason to doubt what he says - it seems like he'd like nothing better than to be a college kid, a model student-athlete, and a teammate of his AAU and high school buddy Mike Conley for as long as possible.
Of course, if the Buckeyes win the NCAA title this year (their unprecedented 2nd major-sport championship of the school year, joined perhaps by the women's basketball team - who just beat #3 Oklahoma in Norman - in an unbelievable sweep), and he's the undisputed #1 pick, all bets are off, but still.
Some of you may notice that I'm putting the cart before the horse just a little bit, but I think I'm pretty safe.
Here's the article on draft picks that I was thinking about, and a little bit of the analysis from it:
"I think it's hard to criticize the trade from King's perspective unless someone can point to a better deal that was on the table."
You don't think Carlos fucking Boozer and the #6 pick in this year's draft that could've been used for either Brandon Roy or Randy Foye ain't a better deal?
Cuz that's exactly what King turned down this past summer.
There have been multiple deals over the past 12 months that King has turned down that were dramatically better than this one.
Imagine if King wasn't a man with the intelligence of a mollusk and had pulled the trigger on that Iverson summer deal:
Philly would've been in the running for a playoff spot with a team that would be in serious contention for the young team with the most potential.
Boston would've been co-favorites with Detroit to win the East.
Utah (receiving Sczerbiak) would've felt incredibly foolish about the results of their neverending quest to field 12 white players.
Miller is a bit old for a rebuilding project, but he's a very solid player with a reasonable contract, and can be flipped for either an expiring contract or a draft pick or both, particularly to a team desperate for PG help.
Wasn't a great deal, but it's the best King could have done RIGHT NOW - the deal you're talking about wasn't on the table, Petey.
As for Oden, he's obviously the prize, but there are a lot of other talented players in this year's draft - it's a good year to be a bad team with multiple first round picks.
"Wasn't a great deal, but it's the best King could have done RIGHT NOW - the deal you're talking about wasn't on the table, Petey."
I think the current deal on the table from Boston is significantly better than the Denver deal. But King likely didn't want to ship Iverson to Boston right now for the exact same reason he didn't want to ship him to Boston over the summer.
And more importantly, to a large extent, the timing of the deal was King's responsibility. He's been continually shopping Iverson for the past 9 months, and he actually did the deal at a point where the returns were guaranteed to be at their low point.
Those draft numbers (probability of getting a solid starter or better) are interesting. I'd be curious to see the same numbers broken down by position. My impression is that it's not that hard to find a good SG/SF late in the first round, but it's almost impossible to find a good C and almost as hard to find a good PG late in the first round/early second round. PF's lie somewhere in the middle.
I also remember a preseason basketball magazine from about 10 years which did a similar draft analysis of the previous decade. Their most interesting finding was that forwards were significantly mroe likely to be lottery busts than guards or centers. And that white players were slightly undervalued in the draft (but this was before the big influx of foreign players.)
And more importantly, to a large extent, the timing of the deal was King's responsibility. He's been continually shopping Iverson for the past 9 months, and he actually did the deal at a point where the returns were guaranteed to be at their low point.
That I agree with. King's a horrible GM. But I don't think there was a better deal to make given the horrible situation that King had already created.
"But I don't think there was a better deal to make given the horrible situation that King had already created."
While I wasn't listening in on the phone line to the negotiations, I definitely get the sense that Boston's offer this time 'round was significantly better than Denver's offer. More cap relief with Ratliff. And a better package with Telfair, a higher pick than Denver's, and another prospect.
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Also, I haven't seen any coverage that's really brought out all the LB connections here. Brown consulted with King on the Iverson trade, and is likely to get a formal title with the Sixers in the very near term.
But that ends up meaning that LB's stooge traded Iverson to LB's best pal, all under LB's supervision. I don't know what it all means, but it is interesting.
And a better package with Telfair
Petey, I'm stunned
1. He's tiny
2. He's not a good distributor
3. He can't shoot
4. He's not a good defender
I guess that means I have to give Portland some credit. They did dump him.
More cap relief with Ratliff. And a better package with Telfair, a higher pick than Denver's, and another prospect.
Ratliff's contract doesn't expire until the end of the 07-08 season. I guess this sort of comes down to one's estimates of the Celtics' prospects. The only one I'd really want would be Jefferson, the one they weren't willing to trade.
Telfair is like his cousin Marbury, except, you know, worse.
Why no Wizzo blogging? I'm very confused.
"Telfair is like his cousin Marbury, except, you know, worse."
Even Steph was good once upon a time. (And even tho Steph sucks today, don't look now - the Marbury/Lee connection has resulted in two buzzer beater game winners in a row.)
But Telfair seems to have a rep as a good kid, with good skills. No more than that - aka, he's not going to turn into Chauncey Billups or Deron Williams or Chris Paul. But he stands a very good shot at becoming a very serviceable PG a grade below that.
Everybody's who's worked with him has liked him.
"Ratliff's contract doesn't expire until the end of the 07-08 season."
Cap relief means nothing to the Sixers at the end of this year - they'll still be over the cap after letting Joe Smith walk. Webber's monster doesn't come until the year after, which is why the Ratliff expiry date would've worked in perfectly. At that point, they could've signed free agents. But now, with Miller's contract, they won't be able to get under the cap for 3 years - just the same as if they'd kept Iverson in the first place.
"I guess this sort of comes down to one's estimates of the Celtics' prospects. The only one I'd really want would be Jefferson, the one they weren't willing to trade."
Nuts to that.
Jefferson was available, if the rest of the package was left light enough. The only truly protected players were Pierce and Green.
Telfair or Delonte and Jefferson woudl've gone through.
Telfair or Delonte and Gomes and Boston's mid round pick would've gone through.
Both of those deals seem clearly superior to Denver's two late round picks.
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Three options:
1) King really is far more stupid than we've yet been able to perceive.
2) LB is sliding Iverson to his pal, George Karl, even though it's not the best deal Philly could get.
3) It really came down to not wanting the personal embarrassment for King and Snider of having Iverson smack the Sixers around 4 times a year.
I think the correct answer is likely #3, but #2 has a certain conspiratorial appeal.
Jefferson was available, if the rest of the package was left light enough. The only truly protected players were Pierce and Green.
Your gut feeling doesn't get to claim authority.
Unless you're going to say that you're a good buddy to Ainge or King, that's nonsense. I never read that anywhere and, well, I read too much about trade rumors.
Petey: have you bugged Ainge's phone? Most of the sources I've checked say Al Jefferson was in fact NOT available, at least not since the Iverson thing became official, and public, a couple of weeks ago. I agree the Celtics would've parted with Jefferson over the summer, though, perhaps that's what you mean.
I too doubt that Jefferson was available. The problem, for the Sixers, is that Jefferson has been playing really well the last few weeks (since the NJ game). So Boston is making its decision a bit less on potential and more on actual production.
I'm going to laugh myself to death when Philly gets the sixth pick.
I'll weigh in a little late on this one.
Andre Miller is an over rated player. He does very little one way or the other to make his team better or worse. If the Sixers stay with him he isn't going to affect their record as much as people might think. When he's penetrating he scoring not passing and since he can't shoot his scoring is ugly, questionable one-on-one stuff. If he's not doing that he's getting those easy 'dribble until 'Melo/Smith come off the screen and make the pass' type assists that any pg with some college experience could get.
Other than his excellent lob passing he's a lousy running point guard (more like jogging). So he's a half-court specialist pg who can't pass when he penetrates and who can't shoot. Why are people enamored with this guy?
Oh yeah, he's also plays bullfighter defense.
"Andre Miller is an over rated player."
While I agree with your assessment of Miller's talents, I don't think he's really over-rated. Most league observers I've read share your basic assessment.
He does very little one way or the other to make his team better or worse
That's absolute nonsense.
So, if we inserted, say, Earl Boykins as the full time point guard last year, the Nuggets would have been just as good?
Or Jeff McInnis? Or Jason Williams? Or Jose Calderon?
Miller is a very good point guard. He may not be excellent in any area. But he's solid in more areas than most.
"But he's solid in more areas than most."
I agree he's solid, but that's not the same as being good.
The real criteria here is whether or not he could get minutes on any elite team in the league that didn't have a glaring gap. And I think the answer for Miller is no.
If I were Miami, I'd much rather pick up Earl Watson than Miller, and Watson ain't all that good to begin with.
Miller is a solid player for a bad to mediocre team.
"Miller is a solid player for a bad to mediocre team."
Nailed it.
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