Predictions In
This was speculated about a bit in comments, but Dave Berri is, indeed, following the formula and saying that trading Allen Iverson for Andre Miller will make the 76ers better. He even ventures a prediction for Philadelphia going forward, saying he expects them to win about 30.4 of their remaining games, assuming his guesstimates about playing time prove roughly correct. John Hollinger, by contrast, says Denver is now "a legitimate threat to win the whole enchilada."
I'm going to just cop to genuine uncertainty about a lot of this . . . the West has a lot of good teams this year, and the road through the playoffs will wind up having a lot to do with matchups, coaching, home court advantage (which Denver almost certainly won't have), fatigueetc., etc., as a number of legitimately good teams face off against each other.
Comments
"He even ventures a prediction for Philadelphia going forward, saying he expects them to win about 30.4 of their remaining games"
Interestingly, Bob Dylan has a song on his new album Blood on the Hardwood entitled "Dave Berri". The chorus goes:
Stein has the best take on post-trade Denver that I've read today.
Basically, as previously stated, Denver needs things to go the right way with Nene and Camby.
Also, J.R. Smith is going to have to step up big time. I think he has it in him, but he's still going to have to actually do it.
Smith is going to be absolutely crucial in the half court to provide spacing for Iverson and Melo by knocking down open shots. Most of the other big teams in the West have multiple long range shooters, but Smith is going to have to handle that role single-handedly for Denver. In other words, he can't have too many nights where he never finds the range from outside.
But I feel good about the basic Iverson / Melo pairing. And I feel good about Karl's helmsmanship.
So there are plenty of question marks, but none of the questions are all that difficult. And if they get answered, the Nuggets should be able to play with the best of the West.
So Dave Berri thinks bringing in Andre Miller and Joe Smith for Ivan McFarlin will improve the Sixers...
Seriously this is the kind of prediction that makes people who understand a little about both basketball and statistics think that Berri is, uhm, full of shit.
My one prediction, Andre Miller's vaunted efficiency plummets for the rest of the season.
My favorite part of this analysis is that he pretends Billy King might well be trying to make the team better by analyzing player efficiency-type statistics. This totally discounts the fact that Billy King is barely able to tie his own shoes. If he made the team better, I guarantee it was by accident. (For the record, I don't agree with WoW.)
I'm actually inclined to agree with Berri. Having a better rebounding, better shooting, less turnover prone, more pass-first-oriented point guard will probably help the sixers.
Well, at the very least Andre Iguodala's fantasy prospects are up.
I think they'll win a bit less than the 30 games that Berri predicts because it will take Miller a while to settle in to the system. The real drawback is that the sixers now have no good penetrators, so this will be a good test of the oft repeated theory that a good penetrator is essential to team success. We shall see.
Pooh is right about Andre Miller, the league leader in cheap assists. He gets two or three off lobs a game, and I don't see that happening in Philly. As for Nene, he likes to hold the ball in the low post until the defense reacts and shuts him down. Then he looks confused and sulks down the court. The sixers will win twenty eight, if they luck out. The Nuggets will be a high drama bunch, which is not a bad thing, since they can't win it all. I look forward to 115 points a night.
My one prediction, Andre Miller's vaunted efficiency plummets for the rest of the season.
Miller isn't actually any more efficient a scorer than Iverson. He also doesn't shoot very much and I don't expect that will change a great deal. One would have to assume that he'll see his number of assists plummet playing on the Sixers. He's a good rebounder for a point guard (no Jason Kidd, but who is) and that probably won't change.
Well, Berri put his ass on the line and gave a number - 35.4 wins, total for the season. What say the peanut gallery here? Gregory Thelen says 28 ("if they luck out"). I'll say 33. What about the rest of y'all?
Why's Berri even making a prediction? After all, didn't he write this at the beginning of the month: "And I would argue, a crystal ball is not something anyone would really want. After all, why would anyone bother playing these games if I or anyone else could tell you the outcome before the games were played?" (NB: This was the point where I realized that not only did Berri seem to miss some central concepts about basketball, he seemed to miss some greater concepts about the relationship between sports, statistics, and fans...)
And I'd like to go on record as pointing out that even if Berri's prediction proves out (or proves to be overly conservative!) it isn't an answer to the general critique of his approach.
What say the peanut gallery here? Gregory Thelen says 28 ("if they luck out"). I'll say 33. What about the rest of y'all?
Three. I think the Sixers are so bad that the League will step in and disallow some of their earlier wins (Orlando and Chicago). If that doesn't happen, I think the Sixers will win 25 games. Iverson's loss will result in at least a 13 game W/L difference, and a sizable relative end position. Rather than just missing the playoffs, the 76ers will have one of the two worst records in the East, and one of the three or four worst records in the league.
I'll take 23, although I note that it's really hard to suck that bad when your entire division sucks as well.
The most amazing thing to me about Dave Berri's article is that he seems to miss the point, which is that most people think he is a moron and that Iverson results in more wins for the sixers than Andre Miller.
So any conjecture on what Billy King is doing... I mean even if you are the mad genius who thinks eveyone else is wrong, you generally realize that everyone else thinks you're a nut and they don't agree with your analysis.
Denver will win only 7 of the 15 games that Melo is suspended.
AI makes them a little worse. They will win 45 games. 8 seed. Lose in 4 to the Suns.
"What say the peanut gallery here? Gregory Thelen says 28 ("if they luck out"). I'll say 33. What about the rest of y'all?"
26 wins total.
"One would have to assume that he'll see his number of assists plummet playing on the Sixers. "
Why? He led the league in assists while playing for a very bad team.
"This was the point where I realized that not only did Berri seem to miss some central concepts about basketball, he seemed to miss some greater concepts about the relationship between sports, statistics, and fans..."
It's worth noting that the main problem with Berri isn't his evasiveness about testing his methods.
The problem with Berri is that his "system" is dependent on Berri's subjective weighting of the value of various stats, while Berri pretends that no subjectiveness is involved.
One could take Berri's formula and decide to massively overweight blocks, show that Alonzo Morning "produces the most wins", and have the numbers all work perfectly. Or one could take Berri's formula and decide to massively overweight free throws made, show that Wade and Iverson "produces the most wins", and again have the numbers all work perfectly.
In Berri's case, he's decided to massively overweight rebounds. This is a subjective choice. To give him credence, we have to give credence to his subjective understanding of the game. And since he's obviously pretty dim about hoops...
He pretends that he's just following the dictates of the numbers, while intentionally confusing the truth that he's shaping the numbers.
This is what makes Berri a con man and fraud.
"He even ventures a prediction for Philadelphia going forward"
Amusingly, Berri thinks the 76er with the highest "Wins Produced per 48 minutes played" number is Alan Henderson!!!
"didn't he write this at the beginning of the month: "And I would argue, a crystal ball is not something anyone would really want."
Of course, Berri's disavowal of the predictiveness of his numbers fits in oddly with Malcolm Gladwell's position than any NBA GM who doesn't base their decisions on the predictiveness of Berri's numbers is brain dead...
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