Protest On
Hot on the heels of Mahmoud Ahmadenijad's supporters suffering various setbacks in Iran's semi-democratic elections, the dormant-for-a-while Iranian student movement seems to be revving back up again in its protests against the system. People have gotten their hopes up about this sort of thing before, obviously, and been disappointed. People have also sought to leverage the bravery of these people into a lot of unseemly chest-thumping -- "if I blog about this a lot, then I'll be a hero of the revolution!"
At any rate, you may recall my blog dustup with Ali Eteraz a couple of weeks ago. I guess you could say he and I have our differences, but his site turns out to have lots of content related to domestic developments in Iran and other Islamic countries, much of it quite interesting and will presumably have something on these developments.
UPDATE: See, e.g., here.
Comments
It seems to me that political success tends to make people agitate less for revolution, rather than more.
Thanks for the link Mathew.
Actually we have already covered the student protests in Iran
In this post: Iran's Non-Violent Velvet Revolution & Why Left Coverage of Iran is Better
You may want to update your post if at all possible
http://eteraz.org/story/2006/12/15/125627/34
Actually, I'm pretty sure Steve is exactly wrong: a little political success - which is what reformers got last week, not a sweep like the Dems won in Nov. - encourages (in the literal meaning of the word) the disgruntled to demand more. Think glasnost.
This goes hand in hand with the fact that revolutions generally come from the middle class, not the truly poor. When people lose comfort, or gain a little but see how much they are denied, that leads to a discontent that subsistence farmers and the urban poor rarely reach, their hopes having been thoroughly suppressed.
I'm skeptical. The vagaries of the Iranian electoral process idicate that this is not a truly popular movement, or that these new elected members are truly popular. I doubt the Supreme Council would have blocked Ahmadenijad's candidates if they didn't think they would have won. Hoping that a fairly small population (Iranian students) have any chance silly at best. Revolutionary student movements usually fail.
If Iran wasn't sitting on a bunch of oil, the US policy would be simple: engagement and trade. We'd go all China on them and globalize their economy - encourage them to invest in their workers, modernize, and reap the benefits of the world economy. In time, an already sophisticated society would grow more sophisticated and the government would loosen controls to encourage the development of a middle class (like China has). Injustice would remain. The government would retain control. But the life of the average Iranian would steadily improve and the stage would be set for a peaceful move towards full democratization at some point (they already have some form of elections, after all).
Personally, I think the mullahs already play a dangerous game with their quasi-elections. With the proper confluence of events, is it so outlandish to imagine true progressives being elected in Iran? We know the mullahs handpick the candidates now...but the right mix of economic and political factors could loosen the mullahs' control on the process at some point.
Anyway, one thing is for sure: a US or Israeli military strike on Iran would set the whole thing back a looooong time.
The election and promise of protests against the Iranian version of our "idiot boy leader" is great news. Perhaps someone might mention to all the clowns who prattle about the Iranian "dictatorship", that it was an election that promises to neuter the clown prince.
It's worth remembering that the Iranian Revolution of 1979 occured only after the Shah made some concessions. He gave in a little and the people realized they could demand more. There really isn't any hard-and-fast rule about this type of thing.
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