Sanctioning Iran

The UN votes to approve economic sanctions on Iran, but the sanctions aren't especially tough. "We don’t think this resolution is enough in itself," says Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns, who's almost certainly correct. Why didn't a tougher package get through the Security Council?

The administration had pushed for tougher penalties. But Russia and China, which both have strong commercial ties to Tehran, and Qatar, across the Persian Gulf from Iran, balked. To get their votes, the resolution dropped penalties such as a ban on international travel by Iranian officials involved in nuclear and missile development.

To me, this is where the small matter of diplomacy enters the picture. I really don't want to see the United States start a war with Iran, so I've spent a fair amount of time trying to knock down paranoia about the Iranian nuclear program. Nevertheless, it is true at the end of the day that it would be strongly preferable for Iran to halt its quest for nuclear weapons. Under the circumstances, it would be good to be wielding tougher sanctions as a stick. That means not just throwing up our hands and saying "well, Russia and China have strong commercial ties to Iran" but also saying to ourselves, "there are probably some things that are more important to Russia and China than their commercial ties to Iran." Find out what those are. Find out of those things are less important to us than is getting tougher sanctions on Iran. Maybe there isn't a good deal to be cut here, but my guess is that there is. Similarly, sanctions and the threat of sanctions will work much better if the Iranians know that a grand bargain would be on the table were they interested in avoiding confrontation.

UPDATE: Incidentally, I would recommend Barry Posen's Century Foundation paper as putting the problems posed by Iranian nuclearization in an appropriately non-alarmist perspective.

12/23/06 5:07PM del.icio.us this incoming links

Comments

Russia and China's problem really is not commercial ties to Iran, it is that a cycle of escalation is harmful to everyone except the US.

Russian and Chinese diplomats explain and explain their position, which is that tougher sanctions would not work but are more likely to cause Iran to accelerate its program, a la North Korea, and isolating Iran, which the US wants to do, would not be a good idea for the region or the world.

US news reporters ignore what the diplomats say and say the commercial ties is the problem.

There has always been a grand bargain on the table. If Iran adopts the Shah's foreign policy, it can get the Shah's relationship with the US and the West I think the US unilateral sanctions laws spell that out explicitly.

Iran wants to know what is on the table if Iran does not form relations with Israel. If the answer is nothing, then there is no new grand bargain on the table.

Posted by: Arnold Evans on December 23, 2006 06:32 PM

Arnold Evans said it all.

"But Russia and China, which both have strong commercial ties to Tehran."

The discussion of only unscrupulous motives on the part of Russia and China, and the mention of no unscrupulous motives on the part of US and Israel, make this a classic example of the implication of the US media in the US domination of the Middle East.

Posted by: otto on December 23, 2006 06:47 PM

This as good a thread as any to mention that Brad DeLong put up his best guess for the unredacted version of Flynt Leverett's censored NYTimes editorial.

Posted by: jfaberuiuc on December 23, 2006 10:07 PM

Frankly, why bother with the Great Bargain?

Anyone in the region would be familiar with the terms Egypt worked out, forgotten in all that was a promise that the West Bank/Gaza was part of the framework and it was all coming in due time. That was closing in on thirty years ago. All the Arab intellectuals of the day closed their careers betting on the Camp David of that time, a generation later another crop of journalists were plowed under by Camp David II.

A bomb seems to work wonders, ask N. Korea. The apparent way to win this little piece of game-theory is to make damn sure you have a bomb before you start talking to Uncle Sam and never, ever, ever, give it up. We made the rules, there is no one else to blame.

Posted by: Ed on December 24, 2006 12:40 AM

What "quest for nuclear weapons"?

Posted by: buermann on December 24, 2006 03:51 PM

I'm in agreement with Ed above.

Bush came out swinging with his 'Axis of Evil' trio of Iraq, Iran and North Korea. North Korea got the bomb and now the US is going easy with them.

How else should Iran act? The USA has interfered in thier internal affairs by overthrowing Mossadegh and the USA, the UK and Israel are threatening them. What rational nation wouldn't attempt to get the bomb in those circumstances?

The west though did live in coexesistince for some 50 years with the USSR when the logic was mutually assurred destruction. But Israel has 100s of nukes and the USA 1000s. In that context, it would seem that Iran could not even rise to mutually assured destruction, rather its attempt to get a bomb is simply a result of thier desire to remove the intimidation and to let Israel and the US know there would be a heavy price in attacking it.

I would far rather the US begin relations with Iran and try to get Israel to act like an honorable nation, rather than a brutal oppressor of the Palestinians. The latter is morally and ethically necessary and has the potentially extraordinary side benefit greatly improving the relations between all Islamic nations and the west.

Posted by: p.wilmington on December 24, 2006 09:06 PM

Thanks
Best regards
mirc
mirç
mırc
mırç
mircturk
turkmirc
mirc indir
mirc yukle
mirch
mırch
forum
forum
turkforum
turkiyeforum
mirc

Thanks
Best regards
turkmirc
toplist
site ekle
pagerank
turkmirc
turkforum
sohbet
türk
karar

Posted by: chat on November 23, 2007 06:50 PM

cinselmerkez.com
aseks.net
erotikcamasirlar.com
vajinatr.com
bakirevajina.com
cinselkozmetik.com
kozmetikmedikel.com
eturknet.com
tecavuz.net
yutuvideo.com
ponotubesex.com
laraperuk.com
sackanagimerkezi.com
peruksa.com
perukmarket.com
aseks.com
aloveshop.com
erotikgiyim.com
geciktiricispreyler.com
geciktiricihap.com
geciktiriciler.com
azdirici.com
bayanuyarici.com
fntazialemi.com
fantaziservisi.om
cinselmazemeler.com
cinselfantaziurunleri.com
erotikdakikalar.com
erotikmarketiniz.com
seksmarketiniz.com
sekshatlari.com
erotikdergiler.com
erotikderginiz.com
penisbuyutucuviprx.com
penisbuyutucuvigrx.com
penisbuyutuculer.com
vigrxpenisbuyutucu.com
sismebebekler.com
sismebebekshop.com
yemekeviniz.com
sanalmarketiniz.com
elektronikmarket.net
ebedava.net
kontortr.com
elaydin23.com
turkcellkontorcu.com
aveakontoral.com
vodafonekontoral.com
toptankontorcu.com
ameribress.com
clitoriacream.net
superspenisbuyutucu.com
megabress.com
rednightperformans.com
performansartirici.com
penisplus.tv
penispluspenisbuyutucu.com
penispluspenisbuyutucu.net
harbiarkadas.com
harbiarkadas.net
harbiarkadas.org
itirafet.org
ebedava.net
elektronikmarket.net