Saparmurat Niyazov
The former Soviet world's most wild and crazy strongman is dead. Good obituary fodder: "Niyazov, 66, who crushed all dissent in his reclusive state and basked in a unique and bizarre personality cult while ruling a country with huge natural gas reserves, died overnight of cardiac arrest, state television said." Next up, political instability:
"I expect there will be a massive fight for power now in Turkmenistan and it's likely to take place between pro-U.S. and pro-Russian forces," said a Russian gas industry source, who declined to be named. "Gas will become the main coin of exchange and the key asset to get hold of." . . ."Our first task is to return to Turkmenistan within hours ... In Turkmenistan there is no opposition, they all sit in prisons or under home arrest. But outside the country opposition exists and it is coming back,"one activist, Parakhad Yklymov, told Reuters by telephone from Sweden.
Russia said it hoped Turkmenistan would stick to Niyazov's course. "We count on the new Turkmenistan leaders continuing their course and further developing bilateral ties," top Kremlin aide Sergei Prikhodko told Itar-Tass news agency.
I think trying to compete with Russia for influence in Russia's "near abroad" is something of a mistake. The situation in Turkmenistan is always going to be more important to politicians sitting in Moscow than it will be to politicians sitting in Washington, and we're just going to end up losing any struggles for influence that we engage in.
Comments
Let's hope by "continue their course" they don't mean things like limiting education to 8 year, much of which was spent studying the 'thinking' of Turkmenbashi and working in the cotton fields, doing things like ordering all gold teeth (a pretty commong thing in the FSU) pulled out, builing giant golden statues and domes to honnor the great leader, and so on. We should modestly encourage stability and democracy, of course, but probably no more.
As always, Matthew, I invite you to reconsider you Putin-apologism.
A good mind can hold two separate ideas simultaneously. American imperial designs on resources should be constrained. But Putin-esque satellite regimes are not in the interests of the local population or the greater global good.
"...we're just going to end up losing any struggles for influence that we engage in."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Too bad such considerations really don't matter. The same cautionary admonishment didn't stop us from stepping in some deep shit in Iraq. Didn't I hear somewhere Turkmenistan was hiding weapons of mass destruction? And crushing the budding flower of democracy? And what of all those torture and rape rooms? On to Turkmenistan!!!!!
It's probably Iranian influence that's a bigger concern to the U.S. government. Turkmenistan is right next to Iran and IINM there's a substantial ethnic Turkmen population in Iran.
Strange how Matt's wholly pragmatic observation becomes warped into a moral judgment in Petey's view. I sure can't see where Matt said that it would be GOOD for Russia to have control, just that it's an outcome we are unlikely to successfully oppose. "Putin-apologism" is more than a bit over the top for this post.
I agree on staying out of the "Near Abroad," Matt. After all, we wouldn't (and didn't, in the 1960s - 1980s) like it if the Russians started getting all up in our grill in Latin America. We're also nervous about China's resource expansionism in Canada and S. America.
I forget who wrote it, but there was a great article in the last fifteen years or so about viewing the causes of the Cold War as mutual misunderstanding about spheres of influence -- i.e., there was no way Stalin was going to allow a truly independent Poland, given that that country had served as the historic corridor for massive invasions of the Russian homeland. By insisting on free elections in Poland (the argument went), Truman needlessly pissed the USSR off.
I don't necessarily subscribe to all of that, but there's a lot of truth there about the reality of great powers' desire to defend their peripheral regions.
Putin-apologism
I called Niyazov the region's "most wild and crazy strongman" and quoted the description of his "unique and bizarre personality cult." I'm not apologizing for Niyazov or for Russia's role in propping him up. But I don't think Niyazov being repugnant constitutes a good reason for us to implement ineffective policies in the region.
They include a statue in gold leaf that rotates to face the sun in Ashgabat. He renamed the month of January after himself and his name was also given to a sea port and even a meteorite.
There's no crazy like batshit crazy. If he hadn't been brought up as a godless communist, he probably would have had himself declared a god.
what a mess down there in central asia, huh (turkmenistan, uzbekistan, kazakhstan)? i think as peter says the iranian ties are of great concern. i really wonder if russia, as matt asks, means continuing the course in terms of repressing free expression, jailing dissidents and opposition party members, or completely restricting travel within the country? or simply that they'll sit in russia's hip pocket with their bilateral ties?
i think my is probably right (and i have no idea what the hell petey is talking about), and other posters have brought up good points as well. the US seems to always take a best possible outcome, end-result orientation to decisions on whether to bring resources to bear in foreign policy matters. what you end up with is people who look at the best possible scenario, and then a) fail to realize the difficulty of achieving this goal, and b) fail to comprehend the damage done to america's standing abroad by meddling in every country's affairs. in the latter point, particularly in a place like turkmenistan (i.e. energy rich), our motives are often very transparent to the locals. unfortunately, the promise of oil and gas reserves probably means we won't be able to keep our hands to ourselves.
"I'm not apologizing for Niyazov or for Russia's role in propping him up."
Quite true.
"But I don't think Niyazov being repugnant constitutes a good reason for us to implement ineffective policies in the region."
I defer to no one in my distaste for ineffective policies.
That said, I'm reasonably supportive of effective policies to bring Russia's "near abroad" into a more global orbit, (and not because I'm interested in containing Russia). I thought the Ukrainian revolution was a pretty cool thing, for example.
Of course, once gas and oil enter the picture, everyone's motives get ugly. But still, Wilsonian aims aren't really a bad thing, as long as they're not pursued with stupid means.
"and i have no idea what the hell petey is talking about"
Matthew has been, what seems to me, a bit of a Putin-apologist in a number of previous posts. I'm likely reading far too much into this particular post based on that.
An orientation toward Russia doesn't always go hand-in-hand with dictatorship. Kyrgyzstan's moves toward greater democracy have been accompanied by a strong pro-Moscow tilt, possibly because the Bakiyev government has simply decided that's the best move economically.
That said, I'm reasonably supportive of effective policies to bring Russia's "near abroad" into a more global orbit, (and not because I'm interested in containing Russia). I thought the Ukrainian revolution was a pretty cool thing, for example.
Are you supportive of policies or results? What US policies do you believe played a role in the Ukrainian revolution?
A good mind can hold two separate ideas simultaneously. American imperial designs on resources should be constrained. But Putin-esque satellite regimes are not in the interests of the local population or the greater global good.
While reason can distinguish these ideas, the phenomena themselves are so causally intertwined that they are now virtually inseparable in reality.
A lot of the folks who are most keenly interested in liberalizing political reform in the Russian near abroad, and those who are interested in such things as the struggle for strategic control over global energy resources, commericial control of the natural gas industry, weakening the Putin regime, natural gas pipeline projects, Gazprom etc. now appear to be joined at the hip in one great neo-Cold War alliance of great game players.
Yank on any thread and you are bound to pull up an inextricable tangle of US and European government agencies, Russian expats, eastern European emigree tycoons, liberal NGOs, mafiosi, neoconservative think tanks and buddy systems, bad-ass exiled oligarchs, crusading media and publishing organizations, anti-Russian dissidents and militias, revolutionary color stylists, international lawyers, and money, money, money.
It reminds me of the crazy casts of characters who were involved in one way or another with Cuba during the Kennedy administration.
I think we have a definite obligation to stand up for democracy and the independence of nations. Obviously the Iraq catastrophe (and our record of supporting coups and 'non-totalitarian authoritarians') has sullied our ability to do so, and as Matt says we're not going to win against neo-Soviet crackdowns on satellite states, but what do we have to lose by taking the side of the good guys for once? They may be doomed but at least their suppression should be protested.
"Are you supportive of policies or results?"
I'm guessing the correct answer here is: I'm supportive of policies that lead to good results.
"What US policies do you believe played a role in the Ukrainian revolution?"
I have zero idea of the nitty-gritty in this situation, but I have been led to believe that we were playing some type of not completely insignificant role in making Ukraine turn out the right way.
I'm pretty sure we're all supportive of effective policies. Matt's contention is that there don't seem to be any effective policies available. We're arguing about nothing unless you can suggest some actual policies.
"We're arguing about nothing unless you can suggest some actual policies."
I'm out of my depth here.
The question that gets lost here is what do the people of Turkmenistan want? If they want to tilt towards the West, who are we to say no? We can pursue policies where pro US does not necessarily mean they have to be more anti-Russia. Engaging Russia does not mean deferring to them on all matters of the near abroad.
What Reality Man said.
I'd non-confidently guess Matthew would disagree with him.
i'm the wrong matt, but i could disagree. sure, in principle, "let the people decide" is a great idea. but in practice, they might they have no functioning civil society, political experience, or any particular knowledge beyond cultist propaganda studies (understandable, given the need to lay low and hide your grill). i'm not sure we can do a gallup pole and prove that the population's desperate for american democracywhiskeysexy, and unanimously believes as gospel that iraq doesn't know how good they have it. or that even if they sent us that exact message via esp or sandy berger, that we could fashion any policy that does them or us any good.
on the other hand, russia, what with having a tsar, may have a firm, clear idea about what the US should do, and that, accordingly, anything that isn't that thing amounts to an insult. one could simultaneously think 1) that a tsar is a very bad thing, and 2) but russia's prolly gonna have one, and it might be worthwhile to keep him close to us when doing so doesn't require policies any worse than we have throughout central asia already (is that the home of our freedom-loving dictator ally who's fond of boiling people in cauldrons? i have no recollection if / how i came to think that, and now hope i made it up. sad, that should be the kind of shocking oddity that leaves a mark).
i'm not sure the argument has any merit (my knowledge of the region, much less country, is lacking - aside from that feeling i heard something about boiling dissidents alive), but it seems as plausible to me as trying to craft a possibly impossible policy intended to bring power to the people while being neutral to russia in a way they'll respect (doubt putin's that different than his soulmate on the "you're with us or agin' us" issue). woefully ignorant, my pollyanna pony plan would be to see if letting russia know they're still BFF w/ kerblakistan might get us enough ski-ball tickets to ask putin if he'll let them watch reading rainbow, and take baby steps toward a future white spruce revolution or other such noble goal.
I seem to recall they had a clever ethnic Armenian foreign minister who was later forming some kind of opposition government in exile. His name was Shikhmuradov.
I just looked him up and it turns out that he was imprisoned, tortured, and made to confess on state TV after organizing a failed assassination attempt. Guess he's out of the picture.
As a side note, isn't Russia supposed to be the one non-NATO, non-Japanese country we are supposed to understand, along with the former Soviet republics? I'm no expert on Russia, but it really seems to me at least that the old Kremlinogists have not really offered any good new ideas on how to deal with Putin's Russia. Looking through publications like Foreign Affairs and Foreign Policy displays a real small amount of original thought vis-a-vis Russia. Now, I have no idea if any of the ideas I outlined my earlier posting would even be feasible, but it would be nice to see issues like that discussed. Am I the only one who feels that Russian experts have been strangely silent the last few years?
Finally, a topic on which I feel qualified to commentate.
First up, US assistance to Ukraine: Ukraine was the recipient of a whole bunch of D&G (democracy and governance) funds during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Programs which had a particular impact included:
1) High school, undergraduate and graduate-level exchange programs. From 2000-2004 or so, Ukraine sent more students to the US to study than any other former Soviet state. Thousands of young folks came back to Ukraine with big ideas about civic activism and community involvement and many of them were on Maidan in the winter of 2004.
2) US Embassy "Democracy Grants": The US Mission provided small grants to groups working to promote democracy in all forms, including civic activism and citizen education.
3) USAID funding to political parties and factions helped groups such as Yushchenko's "Our Ukraine" bloc get organized and gain valuable media and voter-outreach skills.
And those were just the programs which were above-board and well-publicized.
Second up today is the wisdom of the US getting involved in the "near abroad." The US has been involved since the mid-1990s. Bases in Central Asia, a train-and-equip program in Georgia, the BTC pipeline - these are just a few examples. Now, each time the US has defered to the Russians when push came to shove, but there has never been this much gas on the line before. I'll be interesting to see what happens in the next few days.
It seems like a cynical realpolitik bargain could be struck with Moscow: If they do everything in their power to help us prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons, we will let them have a sphere of influence in Central Asia.
Most of the "Russian experts" were quite wrong about the development of the USSR under Gorbachev, quite wrong about Yeltsin, and seem to be all over the place on Putin. The expert consensus before 1991 was basically that the Soviet Union was a totalitarian state that could never reform (wrong), in the mid 90s,according to the experts,Russia was apparently led by a westernizing liberal elite that was in favor of free markets and democracy. In reality Russia was led by an oligarchic gang of former nomenklatura who were busy dividing up the spoils. In any case a lot of the former Soviet experts spent more time in the 90s arguing about who had been more wrong in the 1980s than focusing on what was actually going on in Russia. It is sadly clear that really there are very few "Russian experts" in the US worthy of that name. The only path to success in American academia or media seems to be to adopt an approach calculated for maximum domestic impact and then stick to it. So you have people like Stephen Cohen and Sheila Fitzpatrick feeding preconceived left-wing notions, and people like Richard Pipes and Anne Appelbaum feeding the preconceived right-wing notions. Looking at the history of our Russian, Middle-Eastern and China "experts" it's hard not to conclude that Americans really have no idea how to understand foreign countries.
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