The Circle of Life

Determined to wade ever-further into the analytical fog, Bush is going to be meeting with Abdul Aziz al-Hakim to try and build ties with the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. The idea here is to reduce the influence of Muqtada al-Sadr. Sadr is influential, in part, because Nouri al-Maliki of the Dawa party was dependent on Sadrist support to obtain the Prime Ministership. SCIRI and Dawa together would be able to govern -- in formal parliamentary terms -- without Sadrist support, so were SCIRI to be brought behind Maliki, or were Maliki to be replaced with some other figure who enjoyed SCIRI and Dawa support, then Sadr's power would be checked. Maybe.

It's worth recalling, however, how we got to this position in the first place. After all, under Ibrahim Jafari we already had a SCIRI/Dawa coalition in power that limited Sadrist influence over the government. The price Jafari had to pay for SCIRI support was SCIRI control of the interior ministry. In the wake of the election, Zalmay Khalilzad decided to work to get Jafari out of office and SCIRI out of control of the interior ministry. The solution was Maliki, and, at the time, David Ignatius channeling Khalilzad informed us that "The most important fact about Maliki's election is that it's a modest declaration of independence from Iran."

Now we're going back 'round the loop again. Bush keeps shuffling the deck, but the cards he's looking for don't exist.

12/2/06 1:42PM del.icio.us this incoming links

Comments

"Bush keeps shuffling the deck, but the cards he's looking for don't exist."

Well, the cards he's looking for don't exist if the objective of the game is a "winning" or sustainable long-term policy for Iraq and the region.

But if the objective of the game is simply to stave off defeat on his watch, I think those cards do indeed exist.

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I think the key to understanding WH policy toward Iraq over the next two years is going to be seeing the "don't rock the boat" dynamic underlying everything. If the goal is simply to push the problem onto #44, look for extreme stasis in policy.

Posted by: Petey on December 2, 2006 03:11 PM

al-Hakim has been quoted as saying the Shiites are just playing along with the democracy game until the Americans go home...then they will take over Iraq.

Posted by: alphie on December 2, 2006 05:52 PM

It's almost like Bush is King Arthur in MP&HG, standing outside the castle of the French taunters. "Is there someone else up there we can talk to?" "No, now go away or I shall taunt you a second time."

There are no good allies for him in Arab Iraq. The SCIRI/Badr group is too comfy with Iran, Sadr's a thug, and the Sunnis are the insurgents. Those are the players - there is no one else over there to talk to.

Petey - I'm not sure there's a thing Bush can do to guarantee that the Saigon 1975 moment won't come in the next year or two. Look how much worse things have gotten just in the past year - there's no stasis in this game.

Posted by: RT on December 2, 2006 08:33 PM

Seriously, Bush and Cheney need to be impeached. They can cause a lot of trouble in two years. Not only is Bush incompetent, and not only is he temperamentally wrong for any responsible job, but his need to justify his past acts mean that he cannot possibly do the right thing, which would inevitably require that he admit that by his choices he had brought on a probably-irremediable disaster, and that all we can do is cut our losses.

Posted by: John Emerson on December 2, 2006 11:44 PM

Actually, al-Jafari had prevailed against a SCIRI candidate, Adel Abdul Mahdi, in an UIA caucus with the support of Moqtada al-Sadr in February. American machinations in April forcing al-Jaafari from the post were meant as a challenge to al-Sadr, not the SCIRI. It was another chimerical American victory as al-Jaafari, the spokesman for Dawa, was replaced by al-Maliki, the deputy leader of Dawa, who also allied himself with al-Sadr.

I can't really explain Ignatius column, perhaps he was just putting the best face on the end result of the tempest for the benefit of the Bush administration.

Posted by: CMike on December 3, 2006 02:06 AM

As X-Patriate says: "More and More Like A Civil War":

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jordT1Kuc88

Posted by: incisive32 on December 3, 2006 03:20 AM

"Petey - I'm not sure there's a thing Bush can do to guarantee that the Saigon 1975 moment won't come in the next year or two."

You crazy. At current force levels, we could defend the Green Zone for a thousand years.

Saigon fell after we withdrew combat troops, not before.

And since the chances of Congress cutting off funding for the operation in the next two years are close to zero, Bush can certainly avoid the Saigon moment for the rest of his term if he so chooses.

Posted by: Petey on December 3, 2006 05:12 AM

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