The Last Honest Escalation

Joe Lieberman goes for this full neocon:

While we are naturally focused on Iraq, a larger war is emerging. On one side are extremists and terrorists led and sponsored by Iran, on the other moderates and democrats supported by the United States. Iraq is the most deadly battlefield on which that conflict is being fought.

And what about al-Qaeda? Lieberman appears to be arguing later in the article that Iran and al-Qaeda are collaborating in Iraq since otherwise it's hard to make sense of the claim that "If Iraq descends into full-scale civil war, it will be a tremendous battlefield victory for al-Qaeda and Iran. Iraq is the central front in the global and regional war against Islamic extremism." Needless to say, he's backing the Bush/McCain escalation plan.

One problem here is that to the extent you see the dark hand of Iran behind all events in Iraq, the situation should logically be viewed as more rather than less hopeless. The reason, of course, is that Iran can escalate every bit as much as we can. Whoever's equipping, say, the Mahdi Army clearly isn't equipping them very well -- Hezbollah is much better-armed. Suppose we escalate and the Iranians counter-escalate by giving our foes wire-guided anti-tank missiles, katyusha rockets, Iglas and so forth -- then you're talking about a really bad scene. Obviously, though, that's logic and hawks aren't into logic.

12/29/06 1:18AM del.icio.us this incoming links

Comments

It's as if the Democrat control of Congress is going to make no difference at all.

Posted by: otto on December 29, 2006 10:15 AM

More troops is a nice easy thing to say. But many more is more? Is what we can provide today enough? Is Joe calling for a draft?

I tire of these kind of commentaries from the surge supporters, because they do not weigh the costs, do not honestly state the committment requirement, and do not weigh what effect all those horribles they trot out would truly have on American interests. They also do not address the likely point that we are likely *&*-ed anyway.

Also, I am with our host here. The conflation of Iran and Al Qaeda is dishonest, even though Lieberman never actually says they are allied.

Posted by: Appalled Moderate on December 29, 2006 10:23 AM

The reason, of course, is that Iran can escalate every bit as much as we can.

Huh? We can escalate WAY more than they can. After all, we can escalate all the way to Tehran.

Posted by: Al on December 29, 2006 10:33 AM

Not sure I fancy chasing the Iranian regime through the slums of Tehran myself. They have had a few years to prepare for that scenario.

Posted by: otto on December 29, 2006 10:37 AM

Lieberman's whole argument is nonsense, being very deceptive about where it places "Iran" so as to make it seem as if Iran is allied with Al Qaeda, or even has similar goals. It's clear Joe is buying into the garbage plan to target Shiites in Iraq so as to beat back Iran while absurdly insisting that the Sunni insurgents who have been targeting and killing American troops and Iraqi civilians are the best force to ally with against Al Qaeda, which has a very small footprint in Iraq. Joe doesn't care about Iran escalating, which doesn't really make sense unless you buy his garbage theories to begin with, because he'd like nothing more than aggressive military action against Iran.

Joe is hopeless and should be thrown overboard in Congress...I would have nothing to do with that clown if I was a Democrat, at least on foreign policy matters. The guy is spending way too much time with oppressive leaders in Sunni Arab countries who shouldn't be shaping our notions of what is the most appropriate action. They can inform them, as one interested party, but they shouldn't dominate them, and Joe doesn't care anyway because he already will advocate anything that villainizes Iran.

Posted by: Jimm on December 29, 2006 10:40 AM

It's so odd that the elected government of Iraq (including the president, who isn't even a Shiite) keeps having friendly talks with Iran on the issue of getting Iran's help with security. It's as if they don't know Iran is firmly on the side of the terrorists and wants nothing but instability and chaos in Iraq.

If only the government of Iraq knew as much about Iraq as Joe Lieberman.

Posted by: Steve on December 29, 2006 10:55 AM

i do ask myself sometimes: what actually goes on in lieberman's brain? what is the thought process that produces this kind of idiocy?

damned if i can answer....

Posted by: howard on December 29, 2006 10:56 AM

There is a pattern here. Before the war, neocons made Saddam out to be the source of all the U.S.'s problems in the Middle East. Even after Baghdad fell and Saddam fled, I still read/heard about how Saddam was behind all our insurgency problems. I remember telling neocons that they had made Saddam into a bogeyman. The fact that he was found in that spiderhole did nothing to make them rethink their previous aggrandizement of his evil power.

Flashforward to 2006 and the neocons are at it again, this time with Iran. Iran is the source of all our problems in Iraq. The regime in Iran must be toppled; it is a menace. All the focus is on Iran, Iran, Iran.

Which leads me to ask: After going after Iraq, why are we focusing on Iran when the perpetrators of 9/11 were Al-Qaeda? When are we going to "focus like a laserbeam" on--and only on--those who actually attacked us? For Christ's sake, Iran isn't even Sunni!

Posted by: Mitch Schindler on December 29, 2006 11:46 AM

Not to say that Iran is predominantly Shia and al-Qaeda is Sunni and so are unlikely to be collaborating on anything.

Those are two great tastes that most assuredly do not taste great together.

Lieberman is an idiot.

Posted by: Pat on December 29, 2006 12:05 PM

Al,

You should go check out a map of the Persian Gulf region before dismissing Iranian capacities to retaliate against a decision by Bush to bomb/invade Iran. They can pretty easily interdict a large percentage of global oil production via the use of a few cheap missiles. Their ability to escalate all the way to Wall Street is as certain as our ablility to escalate all the way to Tehran. (not to mention: long borders with both Iraq and Afghanistan and recent moves towards alliance with China and Russia) In fact, it seems fairly obvious that we have more to lose in any hypothetical confrontation with Iran than they do and that is a very bad position from which to launch a war.

This, of course, is just logic, so I don't expect Al and his buddies to address or even understand it, but it's worth repeating just for the record. I'm fairly astonished by the neocon eagerness to give The U.S. several more black eyes. The only "logic" that seems to apply is of the "might as well hang for a sheep as for a lamb" variety.

Posted by: DMonteith on December 29, 2006 12:10 PM

I am amazed that Joe Lieberman is still treated as a credible foreign policy expert by the Washington Establishment.

What would it take to discredit someone among members of this group?

Bill Kristol the neocon Godfather who has been discredited time and time again has been hired by Time magazine as a columnist. Apparently publishing one unhinged neocon (Krauthammer) isn't enough for "balance". Time needs a Krauthammer clone to prove it doesn't have a liberal bias.

Meanwhile DC journalism elite still treats Lieberman was a sage. As long as his views reflect the WP editorial page he is still considered "serious".

It shows how much the neocons still dominate the media. Try to imagine what these people would be saying if the Iraq debacle had been the work of a liberal Dem president and the columnists for the Nation.

Posted by: Nan on December 29, 2006 12:18 PM

Ah, the great Iran - Al Quaeda collaboration. Good to know that Likud wholly owns a Senator.

How long will our mideast policies be based on spectacular lies, quickly abandoned in favor of new ones?

Posted by: HeavyJ on December 29, 2006 12:50 PM

Not to say that Iran is predominantly Shia and al-Qaeda is Sunni and so are unlikely to be collaborating on anything.

Well, since this topic came up the other day, and seems to apply here also, I'll just throw out this tidbit:

9/11 Panel Links Al Qaeda, Iran
Bin Laden May Have Part in Khobar Towers, Report Says
By Dan Eggen
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, June 26, 2004; Page A12

While it found no operational ties between al Qaeda and Iraq, the commission investigating the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks has concluded that Osama bin Laden's terrorist network had long-running contacts with Iraq's neighbor and historic foe, Iran...

Posted by: Al on December 29, 2006 01:02 PM

In fact, it seems fairly obvious that we have more to lose in any hypothetical confrontation with Iran than they do and that is a very bad position from which to launch a war.

Not so obvious to me. The cost to us is somewhat more expensive oil (um, don't global warming advocates think that is beneficial, not harmful, to us???). The cost to them is their regime, their army, and their lives.

Posted by: Al on December 29, 2006 01:06 PM

The cost to us is somewhat more expensive oil (um, don't global warming advocates think that is beneficial, not harmful, to us???)

War with Iran: It's Good For the Environment!

Best argument EVER!

Posted by: Royko on December 29, 2006 01:34 PM

All of America's worst foreign policy decisions, like funding the Taliban or preventing elections in Vietnam, were done in the name of a "larger war."

I'd say anytime a politician cites a "larger war" as a reason to do something...it's guaranteed to be a bad idea.

Posted by: alphie on December 29, 2006 01:48 PM

Al, of course we can escalate way more than they ever can. However, our breaking point would come much sooner as well. We're not fighting for our lives, other than in some nebulous, greater War on Terror sense. The Iranians would be fighting on their turf, in their own backyard, for the perceived cause of directly protecting and defending their lives and those of their families.

Posted by: benny on December 29, 2006 04:02 PM

Joe has already hinted that he will do a Jeffords on the Dems if they don't behave themselves on Iraq and act like responsible adults. Hint: No Kerry-Kennedy flip-flops.

Reading The Looming Tower by Lawrence Wright might make Dems a little more sober and less short-sighted about the bigger threat to the US.

Sophomoric name-calling and chanting mantras like "neo-con" doesn't make an argument. National Security does.

Posted by: daveinboca on December 29, 2006 04:03 PM

Sophomoric name-calling and chanting mantras like "neo-con" doesn't make an argument. National Security does.

Sophomoric logic, such as promoting massive expenditure of life and treasure on hare-brained wars with countries that pose no direct threat to our nation does not constitute "national security."

Posted by: LaFollette Progressive on December 29, 2006 04:37 PM

The cost to us is somewhat more expensive oil (um, don't global warming advocates think that is beneficial, not harmful, to us???). The cost to them is their regime, their army, and their lives.

As Stephen Colbert would say, you must have huge balls to be so blase. Oil will be "somewhat" more expensive if Iran sinks a couple of tankers in the Persian Gulf? Yeah, I guess in the same way that a bunker busting 2000 lb bomb is "somewhat" more powerful than a hand grenade. Dude, this is not a video game. We don't get to reboot and start over when your ignorant fantasies get us killed or impoverished.

At the risk of wasting my time by taking you seriously, allow me to use a sports metaphor to explain why your "higher oil prices are good" argument is ultra wrong. It is obviously good to be healthy and strong enough to run a marathon, but it is a bad idea for the average couch potato to get up and run 26 miles right now. To do so without training is to risk a heart attack or at least a large amount of pain. Similarly, a long term predictable rise in oil prices provides efficiency incentives and the time to implement them. A sudden spike to $200 per barrel would be...um...bad. And bad in a way that renders our ability bomb Tehran into rubble completely irrelevant.

P.S. Iraq has lost its regime, its army and hundreds of thousands of lives and that hasn't helped us out much there either.

Posted by: DMonteith on December 29, 2006 04:41 PM

Had to google Iglas to see what it is (Russian version of a Stinger missile). I also learned Russia exports somewhere between $7 billion worth of arms every year.

Wouldn't it be cheaper (both in lower defense costs and less well equiped adversaries) if the United State just paid off the Russians not to export anything? Hell, we could buy up their entire arms output and use it. The Iglas compares favorably to the Stinger in field tests and it costs 1/3rd as much.

Incidentally, the French also export nearly as much(about $6 billion), we could do the same thing with the frogs. Pay them off not to export and buy up everything they produce.

We spend hundreds of billions of dollars of year on defense, more than the rest of the world combined on defense. We could at least be smart about it instead of using it as a big jobs program.

Posted by: beowulf on December 29, 2006 06:54 PM

Everything the neocons have said about Iraq has proven to be bs, but once again, it looks like they'll have their way. But hey, why not? After all, Paul Wolfowitz got the World Bank job for being a proven neocon nitwit. Amamzing one can make such colossal mistakes without consequences while in the meantime average Joes are routinely fired from their crappy low-paying jobs for trivia. Such is the state of accountability in our "democracy".

Posted by: kafka on December 29, 2006 07:58 PM

We could at least be smart about it instead of using it as a big jobs program.

That's an idea worth considering, lets think about BHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH, oh, dear...here's some hundred dollar bills to wipe your nose and eyes with.

Posted by: Riley Bechtel on December 29, 2006 09:13 PM

Beowulf,

You should google "shkvall" for the largest threat Iran poses to shipping traffic (and, therefore, the world economy) in the Persian gulf. I don't think any amount of money would convince the Russians not to give this technology to Iran. Russia stands to gain a great deal more than we can afford to give them if the U.S. pushes Iran to the point of using these weapons. Russia produces as much oil as Saudi Arabia these days.

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