Cavalier

Cripes, TNR is scary. Ackerman's well out of it.

matty,

I don't know how many time's I need to over this with you and you're readers.

1. ISLAM IS THE REGION OF PIECE

2. MISLAMS ARE VERY VERY HOLY PEOPLE (SUPERIOR TO OTHER'S)

3. DHIMMIS LIKE YOU AND ME ARE DOG'S BEFOUR MISLAMS

4. THE EARTH BELONG TO MISLAMS

5. ISLAM IS THE REGION OF PIECE

6. MISLAMS HAVE MADE SO MANY GRATE ACCOMPLISHMINTS FOR MAN KIND.

7. MISLAMS WOULD NEVER TRY TO HURT INNOCENT BY STANDDERS -- THAT IS WHY IRAN'S NUCLEAR RESEARCH IS FOR ENERGY NOT WEAPON'S

8. EVEN IF IRAN HAD NUCLEAR WEAPON'S = THAT WOULD BE THE SAVEST PLACE. MISLAMS ARE WISE CUSTODIANS FOR SUCH TECHNOLOGIE. DO YOU SERIOUSLY THING A MISLIM NASHION LIKE IRAN WOULD RUNE HER PLANET BY USING NUCLEAR WEAPON'S???? ARE YOU CARZY?

9. THE FALSE NASHION OF ISRAEL CAUSE ALL THE PROBLEM'S IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

10. WHEN THE MISLAMS TAKE BACK THEY'RE LAND FROM THE FALSE NASHION OF ISRAEL, I AM SHURE THEY WILL BE MUCH MORE MERCY FULL THAN THE ISRAELIS HAVE BEEN TO THE MISLAMS.

WHen you neocons go to learn????

Hillaryforpres, if you're going to make fun of the other side by pretending to be a retarded version of their supporters, try a little harder, please. Jesus' General does it a lot better. Your version neither makes anyone laugh nor changes minds.

Matt,
A few points:

First, even the Iranian leadership do not intend to destroy Israel, Israelis can legitimately worry that if Iran acquires a nuclear capability it may change its intentions in the future.

Second, the more fissile material available, particularly in dysfunction states, the greater the risk of inadvertent leakage of non state actors.

Third, I think what some liberal hawks are angered by is the refusal of many other liberals to countenance tough action, not just negotiations. My question to you is: ruling out the use of force, what would you use as a stick if negotiations were to fail (or as a stick to advance negotiations). For example, would you agree to a blockade to take iranian oil off the world market. This would hurt us but it would also hurt Iran more and probably force it to back down. I think this could work and is a sensible middle ground Democrats could coalesce around but do you?

Finally, I agree with you on the worrisome decline of the NPT but the roots of this decline are unclear. The US has certainly failed in part but there is little evidence that the transgressions of the nuclear haves is linked to the transgressions of Iran and the DPRK. Certainly, Iran has said that a restoration of the 13 stepts outlined at the 2000 Rev Con would not affect its own decision making calculus.

It's scary/sad that there are so many merely rhetorical attacks on liberals from the Right. When one launches a merely rhetorical attack, one knows it.

How irrational are we assuming Iran's leadership is, that they would consider a nuclear attack on Israel?

You can tell even conservatives realize such an attack is absolutely implausible when they resort to talk of Ahmadinejad being a cultish millenialist. They obviously have to invent the myth that the guy is batshit insane to get anyone to take their claims seriously.

If Iraq hasn't made these people blush with all their talk of "muscular action" and so forth, will anything?

I see little concrete reason to think that Iran has a policy of developing an offensive nuclear capacity, little reason to think that they'd be particularly near developing such a capacity even if it were their intent, and little reason to think it would prove more irresponsible a nuclear power than, say, Pakistan if it became one.

After Iraq, warmongers should be the ones operating from first principles, rather than painting their opponents as effete ostriches. Demonstrate that there's real reason to think Iran has an offensive nuclear weapons program, that they're serious about it, and that it would pose a true threat to America or American allies, and I'll listen. I'll still think that we really might want to think about, say, talking to the Iranian government before getting all "muscular," though.

Israelis can legitimately worry that if Iran acquires a nuclear capability it may change its intentions in the future.

If the glosses of D'Souza's book are correct, some believe that Israelis might "legitimately worry" that Iran's intentions may change with the increase in availability of American porn. Simple use of the word "legitimate" doesn't make it a big worry, or one that the US need pay heed.

OK, I'm the one that doesn't care if Iran builds nukes.

As a matter of fact, the more time goes by the less I care about non-proliferation and the better the idea of just handing them out to everyone on the planet.

Cool! A post and a puzzle in one! I think the missing word is "view".

Reminds me of tests we had in college. But the missing words then were a little longer.

I tried to suggest to him over there that he is being intentionally disingenuous with the Khamenei/Ahmadinejad thing, too (besides foolhardy about our prospects for attacking yet another nation). Khamanei has the power here, like he always has; Ahmadinejad is blowing smoke. There's been no transfer of power, nor is Ahmadinejad properly called part of any "regime". He's a figurehead there, and the clerical establishment holds the true power. Just knows this.

of course Just is deliberately trying to mislead his readers. the question is whether that arises from his deliberate desire to mislead himself, from marty peretz' deliberate desire to mislead readers, or plain old stupidity.

Third, I think what some liberal hawks are angered by is the refusal of many other liberals to countenance tough action, not just negotiations.

I'll be slightly more into the concept of military action once I see that we have actually attempted to negotiate. None of this 'agree to everything we want, then we'll talk' bullshit.

Even if we say that Ahmedenijad has the power, what concrete reason is there to think he's near on acquiring weapons or that he'd use them if he had them? Even his "wipe Israel off the map" stuff appears to have been a mistranslation of some rather tepid rhetoric, along the lines of taking the Axis of Evil speech as a threat to nuke North Korea and Iran.

The hawks on this really need to come up with some actual evidence that Iran is doing something illegal or worth gettin bothered about. So much as an actual reason to think Iran has bad intentions would be nice.

I think what some liberal hawks are angered by is the refusal of many other liberals to countenance tough action, not just negotiations.

What I am angered by is the failure of "liberal" hawks to provide any reason to think that any consequence of doing nothing would be worse than the likely consequences of war on Iran. There's no excuse for ignoring those likely consequences now that we've seen how the war on Iraq turned out, and though I'd rather Iran not have nuclear weapons I can't see how their getting weapons would end up worse than another such mess.

And don't say "We can't rule out the use of force because we need the threat as a stick for negotiations." The threat of the use of force worked fine in getting Saddam to readmit the weapons inspectors -- then we went to war anyway because Bush wanted war all along. Again, there's no excuse for repeating the pattern.

> Finally, I agree with you on the
> worrisome decline of the NPT but
> the roots of this decline are unclear.

Given the actions of Bush/Cheney, why would any mid-sized regional power NOT be working reasonably fast to obtain nuclear weapons? Having a credible nuclear and anti-ship theat is clearly the only way to prevent one's nation and one's region from coming into the sights of Cheney/PNAC.

What amazes me is that Brazil, Indonesia, etc. and even Japan /aren't/ pursuing nuclear weapons.

Cranky

The growing pressure to use nuclear weapons against Iran to keep them from developing nuclear weapons (there's some bizarre logic for you) is a big reason for this week's Doomsday Clock reset. Congress is going to have to develop both a spine and some imagination to stop this drift toward catastrophe.

A common theme here is that if Iran does not have plans to use NW first then there is no problem. But, we learned from the Cold War that even defensive nuclear powers can go to the brink and maybe over it. And that was in a world with a small number of nuclear powers. Deterrence in a proliferated world, and where the distances between nuclear powers are small, is likely to be much less stable and prone to crises. Related problems include the spread of fissile materials at the initiative of corrupt officials and what happens to the nukes if the regime collapses.

So, please, spare me the Iran with a nuke is fine because they're rational argument. This is a good argument for a twelve year old but it's poor form at this level.

The best analysis of why Israel fears an Iranian bomb comes from Trita Parsi, an Iranian-American analyst:

In spite of its rhetoric, Israel views the regime in Tehran as rational (but extremist), calculating and risk-averse. Even those Israeli officials who believe that Iran is hell-bent on destroying the Jewish state recognize that Tehran is unlikely to attack Israel with nuclear weapons due to the destruction Israel would inflict on Iran through its second-strike capability. With its nuclear-equipped submarines, Israel has a guaranteed second-strike capability. "Whatever measure [the Iranians] have, they can't destroy Israel's capability to respond," Ranaan Gissin, spokesperson for Israel's prime minister, told me. ... Instead, the real danger a nuclear-capable Iran brings with it for Israel is twofold. First, an Iran that does not have nuclear weapons--but that can build them--will significantly damage Israel's ability to deter militant Palestinian and Lebanese organizations. It will damage the image of Israel as the sole nuclear-armed state in the region and undercut the myth of its invincibility. Gone would be the days when Israel's military supremacy would enable it to dictate the parameters of peace and pursue unilateral peace plans. "We cannot afford a nuclear bomb in the hands of our enemies, period. They don't have to use it; the fact that they have it is enough," Member of Knesset Ephraim Sneh explained to me.

Second, the deterrence and power Iran would gain by mastering the fuel cycle could compel Washington to cut a deal with Tehran in which Iran would be recognized as a regional power and gain strategic significance in the Middle East at the expense of Israel... The Great Satan will eventually make up with the ayatollahs and forget about the Jewish state, Israeli officials fear.

A common theme here is that if Iran does not have plans to use NW first then there is no problem.

No, it's "smaller problem than would be created by war on Iran."

I don't think anyone would say that a nuclear Iran is no problem, more that it's not a qualitatively different problem than others we face, as many of the blowhard hawks would have it. If America is to be moved towards war by bullshit rhetoric about how Iran will have a bomb within a year and intends to use that bomb to wipe Israel off the map, it's hardly a problem to point out that none of this is true.

If we're going to talk war on Iran, let's be realistic about the reasons for war. Iran being an inherently more dangerous regime than Pakistan or North Korea (it's actually far more stable and responsible an actor) is not one of them.

The game is to blame all those who stand for peace for being the true war-mongers. Those who wish for peace are good people, you know, I suppose, probably, but dangerously deluded and now that I think of it now so good either. Peace is war, you know.

But, we learned from the Cold War that even defensive nuclear powers can go to the brink and maybe over it.

Gawd, you're a moron. How did we learn that defensive nuclear powers can go "maybe over" the brink? What does that mean? Did we previously think it was theoretically impossible? Was there a nuclear war that nobody told me about?

Deterrence in a proliferated world, and where the distances between nuclear powers are small, is likely to be much less stable and prone to crises.

I think it's a real problem, but I want to see you justify "likely." And, no, the fact that your balls ascend into your guts whenever you see the word "Iran" isn't enough.

Ackerman says the latest, best estimate is that an Iranian nuke is ten years away. As Weiner says, everyone prefers an Iran without nukes, but that doesn't mean that war is preferable to such an Iran. It looks like we have time to sort out our options, at a minimum.

Well, SomeCallMeTim, I guess rudeness is the last refuge of the scoundrel.

In recent years considerable archival evidence from Cuba and the Soviet Union shows that in the words of Bob McNamara we just very, very lucky in the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. That could easily have gone hot, or over the brink as it were. The Able Archer crisis in the early 1980s was not as severe but still real enough to worry about.

As for estimates, Spencer hasn't a clue what the timeframe is, nor does anyone in the US. We have been wrong on timeframe in almost every other case (Soviet union in 1949, China, India in 1998, Iraq post Gulf War I, etc.).

I am not calling for military action by the way, I'm just saying we need to prepare alternative courses of action to sanction Iran. No one here has addressed my earlier mention of a blockade.

Well, SomeCallMeTim, I guess rudeness is the last refuge of the scoundrel.

Bit rich coming from someone who wrote, "This is a good argument for a twelve year old but it's poor form at this level." Or maybe just self-critical.

Sanction Iran for what? Where exactly is the compelling evidence that they have anything but what they say they have, which is a legal nuclear program as allowed under the terms of the NPT? I don't take it as a given that they're running anything else. The burden is on the people who think we should be worried about this to prove there's anything at all to be worried about.

If Iran is eventually going to have nukes, it's better that we haven't bombed them first.

Once the anti-proliferation regime finishes collapsing, what we need are weapons that are more destructive than nuclear weapons WITHOUT the fallout. Something like Fusion warheads that don't require fission to activate. The key danger of the warheads is the fallout, not the destructive power itself.

Re: The key danger of the warheads is the fallout, not the destructive power itself.

The dead and wounded of Hiroshima and Nagasaki (where the weapons were airburst producing virtually no fallout) would disagree wuth this assessment.

And the firebombing of Tokyo was just as deadly so I really fail to see your point. That all bombs are bad? Sure.

But bombs aren't going away anytime soon and shouldn't be going away time soon, so things would be better if we could make bombs that don't cause mass birth defects and radiation poisoning and destroying arable land.

Otto's point is dead on accurate. The biggest threat to world peace right now is the U.S. tendency to act in a totally unilateral way and create tremendous world hostility and mistrust toward us. Not to mention that this tendency creates failed states where terrorists can operate easily. An Iranian nuke is less dangerous than the so-called "tough, muscular" actions that some in the U.S. want us to take to prevent an Iranian nuke.

All nukes are scary. U.S. and Israeli nukes just as much (or more) than Iranian ones. Unfortuantely, a peaceful, negotiated halt to major country nuclear proliferation would require current nuclear-owning countries to demonstrate that they can be trusted not to bully non-nuclear owning countries. It may be too late for that. The alternative is for the U.S. to destroy and/or occupy any country that is not our ally that looks close to getting nukes. That is a far more dangerous course than, say, Iran getting nukes. This is something a 12 year old child could understand, but a neocon cannot.

If we worked out a modus vivendi with Mao's nukes, we can do the same with Iran's. The real issue here as that certain people would go to any length to stop Iran's emergence as a regional power.

P.S. I take back the "12 year old" line in my old post, which was a rude reaction to pt's rude, patronizing, and foolish comment further upthread. These are tricky issues with no "good" solutions. But there are less bad and more bad ones.

Even his "wipe Israel off the map" stuff appears to have been a mistranslation of some rather tepid rhetoric

The Times had an article about that whole controversy a while back, and (if I recall right) the most accurate translation they could think of was something like "remove Israel from the pages of history." Which still sounds pretty aggressive.

Ahmadinejad's rhetoric doesn't mean a thing, of course, but it is what it is.

"We cannot afford a nuclear bomb in the hands of our enemies, period. They don't have to use it; the fact that they have it is enough," Member of Knesset Ephraim Sneh explained to me.
Second, the deterrence and power Iran would gain by mastering the fuel cycle could compel Washington to cut a deal with Tehran in which Iran would be recognized as a regional power and gain strategic significance in the Middle East at the expense of Israel... The Great Satan will eventually make up with the ayatollahs and forget about the Jewish state, Israeli officials fear.
Posted by: Peter H on January 20, 2007 03:08 PM

1. If Israel is betting on "full spectrum dominance" for the eternal future, it has a bigger national security retardation problem than America has. It's not realistic and it gets riskier going forward as bolder and more destructive options are needed to maintain superiority, at one point it is not going to work and Israel could suffer mass casualties. We don't even know yet if destroying Iraq will end up as a net positive for Israel.

2. You seriously underestimate the power and scope of the American-Israeli lobby. Also I see a false dichotomy. Either America is all for Israel or all for Iran, a little simplistic, no?

Iran has been two years away from having a nuclear weapon for fifteen years. Iran will not attack the US with nuclear weapons for fear of complete destruction. Are they any more likely to pass nuculear weapons to terrorists that have the capability and inclination to attack the US than North Korea, Pakistan China or some crazy Russian? I doubt it and therefore am not all that concerned about Iran having some type of bomb in 3, 5 or 10 years.

Isn't it great to notice that in the group containing US and Iranian executive leadership, the mullahs are the most reality-based? Whee!

What I don't get in the whole Iran is at least 10 years away from nuclear weapons. Correct me if I am wrong, but did not the US, granted with some of the greatest minds alive, construct a nuclear weapon using 1940s technology at a time where no one knew it was even possible to build a bomb in less then 5 years. Granted there are issues with hiding a program and what not, but I see no reason why any country in the world, if they were willing to committ the needed resources, could not build a bomb in a similar time frame.

Good points Matt.

Seems to me that Rasfanjani's "eventuality" is the end of Israel's strategic WMD advantage, not that a nuclear exchange would actually occur. You have to read it carefully, and without an agenda, but if you do then "it is not irrational to contemplate such an eventuality" seems to be wrapping up an argument about the eventual end of Israeli dominance and further Western imperialism in the Islamic world, not nuclear annihilation of Israel.

Iran knows full well they'd face devastating nuclear counterstrikes (irrespective of the Islamic world) if ever striking Israel with nuclear weapons. There always remains the issue of a rogue suicide nuclear bomber, how and from whom this weapon would be procured, and this vulnerability of Iran to this eventuality, of which they have no control, leads me to believe they'd rather cut a deal on the nuclear issue as part of a Grand Bargain rather than actually realize it (so as not to get blamed for it if such a suicide attack does occur someday). The strategic risks for not cooperating right now cut both ways between us and Iran, only leading to greater potentiation of worst-case outcomes. We need to end the madness now and start forging a new global consensus so we can get on to catastrophic risks and problems we all face alike (climate change, resource conflicts, etc.).

Bitterlemons, nice catch from Trita Parsi! I just quoted her article on Iran-Israel relations from 2005 on my blog to make the point that once, when Khomeini was making the pronouncements that are being quoted by Ahmadinejad, Israeli leaders were claiming that Iran was a natural ally of Israel. Back in the 80s, such people as Yitzhak Rabin "argued that Iran remained an ally geo-politically. Shimon Peres, who sought a “broader strategic relationship with Iran,” urged President Reagan to seek a dialogue with Tehran."

But that was before Iraq folded in Gulf War I. Now, of course, by Marty Peretz standards, Rabin and Peres are your standard anti-semites.

Obviously, if Iran does develop nuclear weapons, it is much better for the U.S. to have a relationship with the nation, like it has with Pakistan, than not. Actually, there is a scary chance of Pakistan using nukes on India, but somehow nobody is asking for liberals to contemplate "tough" action against Pakistan.

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Thank You Matthew

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thankS