Die Satellite, Die
China successfully tests an anti-satellite weapon, joining the United States and Russia in the "we can blow up satellites" club. I would suggest that a US-China outer space arms race is going to ill-serve the population of either China, the United States, or the other nations of the world. The bonanza for defense contractors is obvious, but what the world could really use is for such a race to not happen and for the current demilitarization of outer space to continue. Obviously since this is an issue, and the Bush administration is the Bush administration, it's mishandled the issue:
Arms control experts called the test, in which the weapon destroyed an aging Chinese weather satellite, a troubling development that could foreshadow an antisatellite arms race. Alternatively, however, some experts speculated that it could precede a diplomatic effort by China to prod the Bush administration into negotiations on a weapons ban. . . .White House officials said the United States and other nations, which they did not identify, had “expressed our concern regarding this action to the Chinese.” Despite its protest, the Bush administration has long resisted a global treaty banning such tests because it says it needs freedom of action in space.
As ever in these situation, good faith negotiations for a treaty might fail. Or a treaty might come into place and the disarmament regime it creates might crumble in the future. But then again, negotiations might succeed. The Chinese have always maintained that they want to see demilitarization, and the United States says it doesn't want to see Chinese space weapons, so the obvious solution would be to negotiate a more rigorous treaty aimed at preventing an arms race in outer space.
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Negotiation is for wimps; the Bush administration tells other countries what to do, and they better do it. That's why the administration has been so successful in its foriegn policy initiatives . . .
Yes, that would be the obvious solution. Its not going to happen. There will be an arms race in space.
A treaty restricting space weapons would be a huge problem for missile defence, so Bush will definitely continue to oppose it. Assuming there is a Democratic president in 2008, I suppose there's some chance of a change, but don't have much hope.
I think the Bushies actually want an arms race in space. Or, they'd rather have that than circumscribe their own options.
A Chinese justification: "We are fighting up there so we do not have to fight down here."
I doubt there are 67 votes in the Senate for any demilitarisation of space treaty, Bush administration in favour or opposed.
No one can prevent us from spying on everything from space. It is our destiny.
Please no treaties with the Chinese, not after what they did to Jack Bauer...
"If I were a Oliver Stone-Michael Moore-Chomskyite type, I would definitely suspect that our military industrial complex encouraged China's military industrial complex to saber-rattle in space by destroying that satellite. Of course, I'm not such a person. But I can't remember a bigger boon since the end of the Cold War for those who want to advance star wars technology."
Well, that's one non-rational, identity-politics-based position on the issue.
Wait a minute, I thought we (the USA) were the only ones in the world allowed to do stuff like this??!! I thought space belonged to us?
www.minor-ripper.blogspot.com
Now, I'm no military expert (at all), but I think the details of a space demilitarization treaty would get pretty tricky pretty fast. Are communications and surveillance satellites "weapons"? Probably not, but they're pretty important part of how the US military operates. Which means that China's going to want to be able to knock them out, and I doubt China can credibly agree to give that capability up--it's rocket science, but it's not hard rocket science, so as long as they can put stuff into orbit they'll be able to smash your average satellite. And so the US is going to want some countermeasures...
Now, maybe a treaty could stop things short of the city-destroying orbital ray guns level, and that would be a good thing. But I think the satellites will have to live in fear a while longer.
"As ever in these situation, good faith negotiations for a treaty might fail."
Ah, the naivete of youth...or was that well disguised snark? You know as well as anybody, Matthew, that "good faith negotiations" are not in the Bush playbook. A Bush prerequisite for any negotiations would be that China first abandon it's satellite defense system.
actually, the U.S. pretty much killed its own ASAT research in the 1990's. we arguably don't have an ASAT capability right now. which is why China is being provocative.
There's also a "poisoning the well" effect to this issue. It's not a good idea for *any* current or would-be space-faring nation to have a lot of satellite shrapnel floating around up there given that something as small as a bolt can do a lot of damage when traveling at 10 million miles per hour or whatever.
This needs to be nipped in the bud right now for the good of our collective future.
The little R&D/policy bundle ingenuously labeled "SDI" has now, and always has had its primary goal as putting nuclear weapons in space. Originally, this was "x-ray lasers" (Teller's wet dream), but now it will simply come down to using nukes as the kill vehicle for "boost phase" counter-attacks.
Of course, even this is a smoke screen. It's always been about first strike capabilities and it continues to be so. As long as the U.S. has an SDI program, other countires have stong incentives to have "satellite killer" technologies.
Now, is anyone going to say something like "Oh, the U.S. would nver do something like nuke another country without provocation?" Cause, you know, we've shown ourselves to be trustworthy and moral...
And now Im mad about space junk
Im all burned out about space junk
Oooh walk & talk about space junk
It smashed my babys head
And now my sallys dead
The Chinese presumably felt emboldened by the American quagmire in Iraq and the decline in international respect for America. They are also hassling us about adoptions and Starbucks.
The United States' military is dependent upon satellites for its high tech style of warfare, but this is not nearly so much the case for other countries. If China were to respond to this by developing its own satellite dependent high tech military, this could conceivably give rise to an arms race.
However, the Chinese anti-satellite technology suggests no such dynamic. Yes, it threatens the current US monopoly of satellite-enhanced high tech warfare; but China - which has no such high tech satellite complex - could shrug off any US counter-development.
This could, indeed, harm the current US high tech military posture, to the dismay of its advocates and could likely require the United States to adopt a different posture. The experience in Iraq, however, suggests that the US so develop a new, non-high tech posture anyway.
I don't get the suggestion the Chinese action could give rise to some sort of "arms race."
An arms race suggests some sort of out-of-control tit-for-tat buildup of roughly equivalent arms, such as the pre-WWI Dreadnought race or the Cold War nuclear race.
The United States' military is dependent upon satellites for its high tech style of warfare, but this is not nearly so much the case for other countries. If China were to respond to this by developing its own satellite dependent high tech military, this could conceivably give rise to an arms race.
However, the Chinese anti-satellite technology suggests no such dynamic. Yes, it threatens the current US monopoly of satellite-enhanced high tech warfare; but China - which has no such high tech satellite complex - could shrug off any US counter-development.
This could, indeed, harm the current US high tech military posture, to the dismay of its advocates and could likely require the United States to adopt a different posture. The experience in Iraq, however, suggests that the US so develop a new, non-high tech posture anyway.
Of course the major problem to this is that shows like Babylon 5 and Battlestar Galactica show that space militarization is so fucking cool. Space based weapons however are always ripe for re-purposing. We all know they get turned on whoever built them.
That said, I personally see little problem with ground based anti-orbital weapons that shoot, well straight UP over the area above the country. When others countries have their satellites passing over us and ours over them they should be fair game. It's like shooting down a spy plane over your own territory.
MNPundit: Well, since the 50s everybody's agreed quietly that national sovereignty has a vertical limit. Reasons: Non-military satellite operations would be a hell of a lot harder otherwise, and being able to see each other's missile silos was thought to be a good thing during the cold war, as it prevented surprise.
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