John Kerry

I've had a more positive opinion of Kerry than most people, even after he lost the election. However, after the damage he suffered from the botched joke, and after seeing how much more impressive Webb (another war veteran) was last night, I'm not shedding any tears.

Kerry had his chance, and run an ok campaign. His two big mistakes were 1) voting for the war resolution in the first place, and 2) not being aggressive enough in attacking Bush.

Kerry just read your comment and went back on TV. Now he says he's running again with your endorsement.

Stop being nice to Kerry!

I've always had some respect for Kerry, going back to initial exposure back in the 80s, but he's making the right decision, if even for the wrong reasons.

It's already starting to look like Edwards, Obama and Richardson are going to split a lot of votes while Hillary is going to run away with this thing due to strong support from women.

I hope not because we could use a real debate about the course forward, though not an ugly or personal one. Maybe it'll boil down to who becomes the VP.

yes, he was eminently well-qualified to be president.

yes, he was not eminently well-qualified to run for president.

yes, he would be wasting his time to try to run for president again.

and yes, it's a shame that our system is not set up to winnow out candidates based on their actual capacity to do the job.

That's a pretty big statement to make - "very little about our presidential nomination process is designed to generate nominees who are likely to make good presidents" - without defending it. I think the idea of smaller states forcing face-to-face interaction is good, since a candidate can't put up as much of a facade day after day with (sort of) normal people. I'm not as keen on the money primary, but then who would have expected Howard Dean to be the top fundraiser in 2003? What specifically do you think is designed to keep us from electing the best person for the job?

I find it odd, that the men who lost the last two elections by extremely narrow margins were branded "losers" who could have no possible future in presidential politics. Turn out was way, way up for them. People supported them in a way they did not support Clinton, who had better circumstances to run in. While you could point to the sorry excuse for an opponent who beat them (if he even did that), that argument falls apart when you consider the entirety of the machine that beat them. Bush may have been pathetic, but the Republican party was brutal, dirty and highly effective.

Good point Njorl...both Kerry and Gore win if there's a 92 Vintage Perot in the race.

Whoever our next president is, he or she needs to start paying attention to the Millennium Development Goals. 191 countries, including us, agreed to a set of goals in 2000 which would be accomplished by 2025. Among those goals was the eradication of world hunger. According to the Borgen project a mere $19 billion annually is all that is needed. This is beyond possible if we start holding our leaders accountable for the agreements they made in 2000.

It is arguable that both Kerry and Gore *won* the elections and are not losers. Both have much experience in winning senate elections.

I'm not sure what this memory is based on but I recall that in the closing days of the 2004 campaign, as we came closer and closer to the election and information became available more rapidly and in much greater detail, I became increasingly impressed with the decision making from Kerry's organization. I very much had the impression that for the first time I was getting a clear picture of Kerry, one that was significantly less mediated by the press. The coverage was also very much of what was happening with each campaign on a day-to-day basis and Kerry seemed very comfortable, intelligent, decisive in that context.

I agree with Katie I'd like to see our next president pay more attention to this issues as well. The Millennium Goals shouldn't go unheard. Our leaders made a promise and they should follow through with that promise.

He would have been okay. The thing is, in this day and age, the ability to come across well on TV is actually something that will help you be more effective as a president in terms of communicating your ideas, persuading the public, etc. So I'm not sure if the nomination process is so irrational after all.

Kerry didn't lose by any kind of "extremely narrow margin," unless you buy into his campaign's rhetoric that if he could have only overcome Bush's 72,000 vote lead in Ohio he'd be president, and then buy into the "after dark" rhetoric that the 72,000-vote margin was stolen.

In fact, he was up against a very beatable incumbent, and got whipped by him.

It's also a myth that Kerry represented an opportunity to have a great president, but, darn the luck, he just didn't campaign well. It's not as if campaigning ability, communications skills, media management and the "buck-stops-here" responsibility for one's own campaign are irrelevant qualifications. Like a sports team with a winning record that gets clocked in the playoffs, Kerry's fatal weaknesses were exposed by that campaign he ran. His subsequent political performance only reinforces the reality that he would have been a bad and unpopular president, unsuited for the past two years' challenges. Bush is also bad and unpopular, but he was good enough to beat Kerry.

The Democrats need to do something different to win in 2008. It's not Hillary. It's not Edwards. It's not Biden. It might be Obama. It could be Richardson. It might be someone we aren't even looking at now.

"That said, it seems to me that there's no reason whatsoever to believe that Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Barack Obama, or Mark Warner would actually do a better job of being president"

You claim you're not a goo-goo, but you have a goo-goo's disdain for the grubby business of politics.

John Kerry is a lousy national politician, and even if he managed to win a general election, the fact that he's a lousy national politician would be extremely problematic for a Kerry administration.

Being President involves politics.

That's a pretty big statement to make - "very little about our presidential nomination process is designed to generate nominees who are likely to make good presidents" - without defending it... What specifically do you think is designed to keep us from electing the best person for the job?

The long answer is, good candidates are often not good executives because a good candidate needs to please large numbers of people (but only in comparison to a certain opponent) over short time periods, and then get obvious credit for it, whereas a good executive needs to be do good for large numbers of people in absolute terms while taking the long view, regardless of how it reflects on him or her directly. Different skills and different goals. In addition, in today's America, candidates need to win the approval of our pundit class, which tend to judge partially (if not entirely) on personality traits that are not required for "good" leadership. None of this is designed, it sort of happened that way. And there are various causes: television, media consolidation and deregulation, an inevitable drawback of democracy that idiots or demogogues will occasionally get elected, the remoteness of democratic government on the federal scale; so who knows which is exactly the most important reason.

Of course, the short answer is, we know that good candidates are often not good executives because of George W. Bush.

Do you hear the sound of half a dozen Massachusets Congressmen weeping?

"Do you hear the sound of half a dozen Massachusets Congressmen weeping?"

Yup. I hear the weeping going all the way down to the level of MA state legislators...

Cyrus - While it is certainly true that campaigning and executive decision-making are not the same (although running a presidential campaign is kind of like building a several hundred million dollar corporation from the ground up), it's not as though voters are looking for the person who can tap-dance the best for them. I don't really see a specific reason how our campaigns are particularly unsuited to selecting the best person, unless the problem you have is with Democracy itself. I am certainly willing to admit that Democracy is not always or even usually the best way to select the best President, but I think it serves the much more useful purpose of keeping us from selecting a really horrible one.

BROOKLYN UPS Y'ALL

Cyrus writes, "Of course, the short answer is, we know that good candidates are often not good executives because of George W. Bush."

George W. Bush was a good candidate? He had a result statistically identical to a tie on his first election, and a fairly unimpressive showing as an incumbent on his second election, both of those against campaigns which, while reasonable people can disagree on their merits, were by no means awesome, world-class campaigns.

As candidates go, Bush seems like he's mediocre. Now, he's a worse than mediocre president, but I think that in order for him to really prove your point, he'd have to have been an unambiguously popular candidate, and the president that we all know and hate.

"Do you hear the sound of half a dozen Massachusets Congressmen weeping?"

Yup. I hear the weeping going all the way down to the level of MA state legislators...

Indeed. It's the situation in Massachusetts that makes we wish we could get rid of the vestiges of the ancient notion of the cursus honorum. Why are MA congressmen so ambitious to "move up" to the Senate, but only if there's an open seat? If they don't like serving in the House of Representatives, they can quit any time they like. Or, if they think they could do a better job than one of the incumbents, they could make their case to primary voters. But see, then the gloves would be off, and they might be primaried, and they don't dislike the House enough to give up the lock on their own seats. Gad, the incumbency protection racket in action.

I agree with Petey… Kerrey showed in the campaign that his communication skills are bad. He couldn’t coherently explain his conflicting war votes during the campaign, and likely would have been just as bad at explaining his health care or foreign policy as president.

Also, I see no evidence that Kerrey is any good at bureaucratic skills necessary for governing. His campaign organization was not particularly well run or disciplined. The choice of five time loser Bob Shrum as chief political strategist showed pretty bad judgment in picking people as well.

Why do you think serving a million years in the Senate equals "experience governing?" What has he governed? His staff?

Being President involves politics.

A big "Amen" to brother Petey.

It's a nice wonkish fantasy to imagine the presidency as a sort of Technocrat Supreme, but it's foolish to ignore the fact that a president needs to drum up popular support for his policies, and a lot of that is through charisma, political savvy, and strategy. I think it's a stretch to rank Kerry ahead of the current field on that aspect of the job.

Matt is absolutely correct. The political market system is indeed designed to produce, not the best man, but the most acceptable one--i.e. the man least despised. For the best, most rigorous explanation as to why this is so, read Garry Wills' Nixon Agonistes.

John S. said:

Kerry didn't lose by any kind of "extremely narrow margin," unless you buy into his campaign's rhetoric that if he could have only overcome Bush's 72,000 vote lead in Ohio he'd be president, and then buy into the "after dark" rhetoric that the 72,000-vote margin was stolen.

In fact, he was up against a very beatable incumbent, and got whipped by him.

Kerry was hardly whipped. Of the 37 presidential elections since 1864 (when all states actually had a popular vote), 2004 was the 9th closest election percentage wise. It was no 2000, but it was awfully tight.

Andrew writes, "The political market system is indeed designed to produce, not the best man, but the most acceptable one--i.e. the man least despised."

That's clearly just not true even remotely true.

Look at Bush. He's pretty despised, and not just now -- he was seriously hated by a very large number of people in 2000, and a much larger number of people in 2004. There are uncounted hordes of people who are, were, and will always be less despised than Bush -- and not just Joe off the street, though he certainly numbers in those ranks. There are plenty of professional politicians who are much less controversial than Bush.

I would even argue that Kerry and Gore were broadly less hated than Bush. That is, I suspect that the way it broke down was that maybe 20% of the populace just loathed Bush in 2004, while maybe 10% of the populate just loathed Kerry, and then among the remaining 70%, the people who didn't hate either candidate, the balance of "like" or "lesser of two evils" broke on Bush's side.

But then, we all already knew, without the need for flowery language, that if you get 53% of the popular vote, that means that, er, 53% of the populace prefers you to the other guy. I surely hope that nobody thought that that prosaic fact meant the same thing that you were the "man least despised."

Y'know, I hated to see Bush win in '04 as much as anyone, but if the dipstick from Massachusetts had won, the Democrats would have lost seats this time and the Presidency in '08. Because that idiot wouldn't have the courage to do anything different in Iraq from what Bush is doing, and it would now be a "Democrat Party" war. The man is gutless (voted wrong on both Iraq wars to maintain his viability) and excruciatingly lame ("I'm a Vietnam Vet! I never protested that war, nor have I done anything since! Vote for me!"). Good riddance to retarded rubbish.

No "Decider" in our written Constitution

It really shouldn't matter that much who gets elected President, because we are supposed to have a republic. The people's business is supposed to be done publicly by their elected representatives. Congress should make all the decisions after public consideration and debate, and give the executive departments their marching orders in the form of statutes and authorizations for expenditures of public funds. The President does not even need to be in the chain of authority for any given depratment or agency of the executive, except as Congress shall direct. The workings of the departments of the executive are supposed to be under Congressional direction. In Art. II, Sec 2 we see that the founders thought they needed to give the President the power to "require the Opinion, in writing, of the principal Officer in each of the executive Departments, upon any Subject relating to the Duties of their respective Offices", so that he would not be totally irrelevant to the operation of the executive branch. Wow. He can ask for opinions, and in writing! Some Decider. More like a semi-official sidewalk supervisor, and kibbitzer-at-large.

The only real power the written Constitution gives the President is the veto. This legislative power is nifty, giving him effective voting strength equal to 1/6 the membership of both houses, at least in the negative, for preventing legislation. The unwritten constitution, in contrast, has centralized so much of the governmental authority and power of the US on the person of the President, that we really don't have a republic anymore. Congress itself usually reacts with irritation if the President does not make all the important decisions behind closed doors so they don't have to take any responsibility. No one, not even the smartest, best-intentioned and most energetic person imagineable, can make these decisions, whose soundness or unsoundness is less important than the fact that the people's representatives are permitted thereby to avoid responsibility for the public business, without the whole process of deliberation becoming warped by the transhuman dimensions we have created for our Presidency. We expect our Presidents to be a continuing stream of Men on White Horses riding to our rescue with the above-the-fray wisdom that only some god-man who doesn't have to justify decisions publicly is supposedly capable of attaining.

How could the process of choosing such a President, elevating an ordinary, fallible, mortal schmuck whose every minor misstep is the subject of public ridicule, to the god-like status of deciding war and peace for the world in splendid isolation, not be broken? Don't blame the nomination process itself. No process could square the circle, no process could give us the god-man we have let our degenerate system come to demand of its Presidents. Of course sensible and decent people look at the whole project of the contemporary American Presidency and recoil in horror. So of course we wind up with buffoons and charlatans smart enough to work the inherent contradiction to successful election, but not smart or decent enough to think through the trap the attainment of that now-impossible-to-fill office will put them and the country in. We won't have a reasonable and effective process for selecting our Presidents until and unless we get the office itself back within reasonable bounds. Having Congress unceremoniously remove this self-anointed Decider is the necessary first step, but only the first and least of the changes necessary. Congress must find within its membership the corporate sense of responsibility to resume the role of Decider that the Consitution gives it, and a republican form of government requires of it.

I second the comment above that Kerry has virtually no experience in governing. And running a campaign is in no way equivalent to starting up a business. Running a campaign might be reasonably close to producing a movie, but that's a far cry from managing cost, quality, innovation, asset stewardship, investment strategy, capital acquisition, etc. --- the mainstays in business after you get past the product/service development and the selection of channels to reach the market efficiently and effectively.

One of the most perplexing things for us as a society, I think, is that we have grown a monster federal government organization with a budget so large we can barely count the zeroes anymore, but we put people in charge who are so dramatically unprepared for RUNNING something (anything, really, any kind of organizaton) that is accountable and actually produces some meaningful results.

You can get very good at legislating, at maneuvering and dealing in a political sense, at speaking, at image creation, and at lawyering.... and I would still know very little about how good you might be at RUNNING something. My first test of a candidate for POTUS is: if I had a $100 million (revenue) family business, would I be confident about putting this person in charge of it and picking the others who would be key players in it? Because being an effective President requires the same kinds of skill sets, but on a stage that is so dramatically larger it is nearly incomprehensible.

Needless to say, I don't find many candidates attractive most of the time. And Kerry wouldn't have even gotten an interview; his resume alone would have eliminated him from my CEO selection process; watching him operate and listening to him only validated and reinforced the obvious conclusion about him.

And of course, Bush didn't make the cut either. Not even close.

It's ironical that Michael should call me "clearly" wrong and than respond with such fabricated muddledness (That is, I suspect that the way it broke down was that maybe 20% of the populace just loathed Bush in 2004, while maybe 10% of the populate just loathed Kerry, and then among the remaining 70%, the people who didn't hate either candidate, the balance of "like" or "lesser of two evils" broke on Bush's side.") [What??]

Anyway, to see the way in which our political system actually works, let's imagine a primary, something along the lines of the Republican situation in 2000. Suppose there are five candidates: George Bush, John McCain, Gary Bauer, Alan Keyes and Steve Forbes. Let's suppose, as was the case, that Bush is a famous and well-funded but somewhat unaccomplished governor with a certain ideological edge but also a fairly mushy public face ("compassionate conservatism"). Let's also suppose, as was the case, that McCain is well-known and a man of gravity but ideologically suspect: adored by the "liberal" media and even openly hostile to Christian conservatives. Finally, let's suppose that Bauer Keyes and Forbes are lowly and unserious, but ideologically purist and quite close to the Party's base (Bauer and Keyes are Christianists, Forbes a Club-for-Growth type).

Now imagine the average Republican primary voter--a committed party member versed in the issues and interested enough to actually vote: I don't think I would be remiss in supposing to the average Republican Bauer, Forbes and Keyes seem the most attractive and that, if the primary voters were to vote without any strategic considerations in mind, B K and F would win a plurality.

But as it happens, the voters do vote strategically: they know who they like, but they also know who they hate and who can win. They know that Bush and McCain are winners, but many of them deeply dislike the latter (to say nothing of Al Gore--the real winner if the Republican nominee should lose). So many Republicans hold their noses, pass on B K and F, and vote for Bush (or against McCain). So Bush wins. Was he the man most deeply liked, by a plurality? Probably not. But was he the most acceptable (or least despised)--ideologically and strategically? Obviously so.

Clearly though, he was not the "best" man--not by the ideological standards of the the Republican party. But then, the system, as Matt said, isn't designed to produce "the best". It's designed to produce the most mediocre: the one who says the least, alienates the least number of people, the one we can all agree on, the one least likely to rock the boat. Naturally, this leaves us rather dissatisfied ("the lesser of two evils") but every election--about anything, involving anyone--presents a paradox: few people deeply like one candidate, but many generally dislike another. So we resort to compromise: we elect the person we find most agreeable or dislike the least. Sorry Michael, it's just a fact.

My god man, are you delusional? I voted for Kerry knowing he was a disaster, likely to be one of the worst presidents in a century, but better than the double secret disaster that was the alternative.

The flip-flopping was not an unfair characterization of him - it was spot on. The man changes positions 7 times in the same sentence, manages to say nothing, and then puts you to sleep.

Experience? Byrd has experience, Thrumond had experience, nobody ever thought they'd make good presidents.

Matt Y:"The Kerry-as-bad-candidate meme is an interesting one, though. It's something I've talked about a lot with a lot of people. We all agree that he's not so hot. But then the question arises -- who would be better? And it's hard to come up with anything. John Edwards, clearly, has the raw material there, but I think it's pretty clear that such an inexperienced guy would've gotten slammed in the first post-9/11 election. Ideally, you would somehow meld Kerry's record and biography with Edwards' personal qualities, but outside of Reasons and Persons the world doesn't look like that. Wesley Clark was, I think, on paper by far the strongest candidate. And maybe -- maybe -- he would've done a better job than Kerry. But from what we saw he had all of Kerry's weaknesses as a spokesman except multiplied. Gephardt would've been a fiasco.

"I can sort of see the case that Dean, despite his well-known weaknesses, might look a lot better in fall '04 than he did in winter '03 simply because Iraq has now become a clear potential vulnerability for Bush and Dean has clear position on it. On the other hand, I think his tax policy would've been a killer, and you'd be hard-pressed to say on the merits that Howard Dean is the person best-suited to fixing the problems in Iraq. Some small-state governor who's surrounded himself with a peacenik following.

"So I'm not sure that Kerry's the best candidate who was available, but I'm inclined to say that he is."

--September 17, 2004

"I agree with Petey… Kerrey showed in the campaign that his communication skills are bad. He couldn’t coherently explain his conflicting war votes during the campaign,"

On the contrary, he explained it very well with a satisfactory and sensible explanation. And almost no one ever heard it because it wasn't as funny as what the press made up.

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