New Entrants

Speaking of Sam Brownback, he's running for president. My guess is that he's going to prove to be a much stronger primary challenger than he's currently given credit for -- he makes much more sense as a GOP nominee than John McCain or Rudy Giuliani or some such. Also getting in the race is Bill Richardson. Nobody seems excited about his candidacy, but on rough outline a popular governor of a Southwestern state who also has foreign policy experience sounds an awful lot like a solid presidential candidate.

1/21/07 12:29PM del.icio.us this incoming links

Comments

As I said over at AF, if Richardson were governor of Virginia, he'd be in the top tier. He's definitely on my personal shortlist.

Posted by: Brian Ulrich on January 21, 2007 12:37 PM

These two people also seem somewhat excited about Richardson.

Posted by: Brian Ulrich on January 21, 2007 12:42 PM

Plus he's managed the remarkable straddle of being Hispanic without having an icky-foreign-sounding name.

On the merits, Richardson would probably be my top pick, but I fear that as a former Clinton official, the pundits have already made up their minds about him, and a couple of scandals that've never really gotten much play will suddenly get lots of it. First, he was a probably a leaker in the Wen Ho Lee case -- I can just see the pundits running gleefully with a narrative of Dem hypocrisy on the subject of official leaks. Plus there's the inevitable phony character issue, revolving around his long-time but ultimately withdrawn claim to have been drafted by a MLB team. 'Another Clinton official who boasts of things he didn't do', they'll say. 'Just like Al Gore and the internet.' I fear these narratives will be fatally toxic.

Oh, and I just saw on Wikipedia that he majored in *French*.

Posted by: Ryan on January 21, 2007 12:57 PM

Actually, there are two deeper issues I'd like to see addresses. Based on both his web site and what I know of his governorship, he has little to say about health care and strengthening unions. Those are two major issues for me, and while I don't care too much about the details of plans, I do want a sense of how he might prioritize them and what direction his plans might take. On this topic, his emphasis on business partnerships, while not a problem in and of itself, could mean he plans to sacrifice them.

Posted by: Brian Ulrich on January 21, 2007 01:03 PM

I agree about Brownback. He has a solid positioning and I can envision a race where he as the underdog ends up being the counterweight to McCain -now representing the mainstream of the party.

One interesting aspect of that race would be the fact that these two candidates would represent a reshuffling and a reinvention of the Republican party bipolarities, that is a hawkish social liberal versus a dovish social conservative.

Now, this may be an accident owing more to personalities and circumstances, I don't know. I do feel however that Brownback might be an upgrade over the usual fare that social conservatives threw in the primaries, that is either the Jesus cool-aid drinking, dump smiling or the harsh, bible thumping authoritarians.

More to the point, Brownback seems more normal and more willing to reinvent the identity of social conservatism to directions that have to do with more progressive social policies and let's say the environment. Now that's not something I see as entirely personal. I see signs in small news tidbits here and there that the christian movement is moving in this direction.

Posted by: Nick Kaufman on January 21, 2007 02:08 PM

a hawkish social liberal

In what possible universe is McCain a social liberal?

Posted by: Aaron S. Veenstra on January 21, 2007 02:35 PM

That's a good point.

But to me, there's the substance of his position. And there is his demeanor.

Now people tend to discount demeanor. But to me is crucial, because his demeanor, the fact he didn't seem like he had stick up his ass, made him more palatable and agreeable to me who I am a social liberal. To me that's important in choice, because you can disagree with someone on the issues but trust him with governing because you think his values or disposition aren't that different from yours.

Conversely, this precise fact made him very hated by the social conservative base which he now tries to placate. It's not his positions or his votes that made him hated though. It was his demeanor.

Posted by: Nick Kaufman on January 21, 2007 03:05 PM

Steve Clemmons takes a weirdly strong shot at Richardson's "personal issues" before revealing that it's actually all about Bolton.

Posted by: Petey on January 21, 2007 03:08 PM

Petey:

Yeah, I read that. I don't read Steve often enough to have a good feel, but part of me wonders if he just didn't like getting dissed. Still, if these issues are out there, then best to air them now so they'll be old news next year.

Posted by: Brian Ulrich on January 21, 2007 03:13 PM

"I don't read Steve often enough to have a good feel, but part of me wonders if he just didn't like getting dissed."

I like Clemmons a lot, but I didn't like this piece. It's disingenuous.

The implication is that he wouldn't be writing about the personal issues if Richardson had been on the right side of the Bolton fight, and that's a fucked up approach.

-----

That said, I've long thought that Richardson's personal profile renders him un-nominatable in much the same way that Gingrich and Giuliani are ultimately un-nominatable on the other side.

Posted by: Petey on January 21, 2007 03:21 PM

Brownback has two major problems though: he's from an unimportant non-swing state and (worse) he's very much off the rightwing plantation on Iraq. The latter insures that he would be anathema to the Bush-Rove-Chenney trinity, and his candidadcy will meet with no favoritism from the GOP Powers That Be.

Posted by: Jonf on January 21, 2007 03:29 PM

on rough outline a popular governor of a Southwestern state who also has foreign policy experience sounds an awful lot like a solid presidential candidate

Unfortunately he's fat and Mexican, which are two big strikes to overcome. Plus no one's really heard of him.

Posted by: right on January 21, 2007 03:31 PM

Unfortunately he's fat

That was one of Matt's typos. He meant to say, "sounds like an awful lot of solid presidential candidate."

Clinton wasn't in any weight loss ads.

Posted by: Brian Ulrich on January 21, 2007 03:35 PM

I'm down for popular governors with foreign policy experiencing, but Richardson's not going to last 10 minutes in the hot seat before rumors of sexual impropriety destroy his campaign. Do we really need to go through another Gennifer Flowers fiasco?

Posted by: Dave White on January 21, 2007 04:10 PM

(Your system still isn't saving my personal information.)

I read Clemons' piece too, and I didn't like the confounding with the Bolton issue either. However, if there's any truth to what he's saying about Richardson, the guy's dead in the water. There is absolutely no way a Dem party that isn't suicidal nominates another groper, after all the trouble the Repubs were able to make for Clinton on this issue. Plus, women are a huge part of the Dem coalition, and while we were willing to overlook Clinton's indiscretions, I don't think we'll be as willing to do it again. Particularly since I don't see any evidence that Richardson is the sort of compelling politician Clinton is.

Posted by: Rebecca Allen, PhD, ARNP on January 21, 2007 05:43 PM

I'm inclined to believe Richardson is angling for a VP bid.

An Obama/Richardson ticket would be difficult for the current Republican contenders to beat.

Posted by: Matthew C on January 21, 2007 06:15 PM

I'm still betting on Al Gore / Shirley Franklin ticket to win. You heard it here first.

(Then again I previously thought Mark Warner was a shoo-in. Oh well.)

Posted by: Oberon on January 21, 2007 06:24 PM

You know, I'm a native New Mexican, and my family still lives there. I live in the DC area, and here about Richardson's "woman problems" all the time from people here. But if you ask people in New Mexico about those rumors, they've never heard anything about them. Nada, nothing. The big scandal there is that the Gov likes to drive fast in the state trooper cars down the interstates.

But until I hear a rumor that has a name, or a place, or an act, or any details besides "I hear he has the Clinton problem", I'm gonna assume it's all made up by people who don't want another outsider coming to run Washington.

Rumor mongers, put up or shut up.

Posted by: MH on January 21, 2007 09:45 PM

"I live in the DC area, and here about Richardson's "woman problems" all the time from people here. But if you ask people in New Mexico about those rumors, they've never heard anything about them."

I'd assume that's because the type of behavior Clemmons is talking about occurs in Richardson's political work circles, not at public events in NM. And perhaps because your DC friends are more plugged into politics than your NM family.

"But until I hear a rumor that has a name, or a place, or an act, or any details besides "I hear he has the Clinton problem", I'm gonna assume it's all made up by people who don't want another outsider coming to run Washington."

Google is your friend. Several folks have gone on the record about this stuff, including (if memory serves) a high ranking female member of the NM legislature.

Posted by: Petey on January 21, 2007 10:01 PM

"we don't need another Gennifer Flowers"

Yeah, because that candidate never recovered from the bimbo eruptions.

Posted by: too many steves on January 21, 2007 10:20 PM

Gore/Oprah in 2008 run as a team with Oprah bankrolling the whole thing. Oprah steals Obama's and Clinton's thunder while Gore remains above the fray. Sure people like Obama/Clinton but they love Oprah and she has some experience smacking down Republicans and liars. I am predicting some serious upgrades to the Naval Observatory

Posted by: centrist on January 21, 2007 10:31 PM

The Wen Ho Lee thing is actually a pretty big issue for me. I mean obviously it pales in comparison to something like what happened to Padilla, but that poor guy. The idea of Clinton officials locking some innocent guy up (in solitary) accusing him of being a spy, and then gleefully trashing him in secret to the press is just disgusting.

Posted by: Chad Okere on January 22, 2007 03:56 AM

Clemons would make a bad ninja. He's not the best at knifing people. Now, if you look at how wingnuts work...

Anyway, the problem with Brownback is that he's a senator, and senators don't become preznit. (Obama might be an exception to that rule, only because he doesn't have the experience to ruin his chances.)

That's why Huckabee (and possibly Romney, though he's a scary Mormon) are the ones to watch.

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