Shakeups

Lots of personnel moves in the national security department. John Negroponte is out as Director of National Intelligence and in as Deputy Secretary of State. Harriet Miers will no longer be in charge of explaining why torture is legal. What's more, David Petraeus won't be taking my advice and will instead assume command in Iraq where the world will get to see his counterinsurgency theories fail. Zalmay Khalilzad will be out as ambassador in Baghdad and move to Turtle Bay instead (John Bolton, I guess, will spend more time with his family).

Khalilzad's replacement will be Ryan Crocker, a career foreign service officer with an interesting resumé. At the moment, he's ambassador to Pakistan. During the late Clinton years, however, he was ambassador to Syria and he was Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs during the early Bush/Powell years. With Crocker and Petraeus leading the team in Iraq, I don't think it will any longer be viable to claim that the mission is failing because it's being run by hacks and know-nothings; the mission will fail because the mission is impossible. Last, in a break with precedent Bush will put a Navy officer, Admiral William Fallon in charge of Central Command.

1/5/07 9:28AM del.icio.us this incoming links

Comments

Matt, that third sentence is missing a whole bunch of words.

Posted by: Marcel on January 5, 2007 09:53 AM

Unlike the Army, the Navy and Air Force aren't stretched to the limit. (The teentsy 20,000-man "surge", some of which is just bookkeeping tricks, is a red flag telling the enemy that we don't have any reserves). So if Bush wants to attack Iran, it can't be on the ground.

Posted by: John Emerson on January 5, 2007 09:56 AM

Two quick points about Petraeus accepting the job. First, it is a promotion for him. He was probably in line to get the 4th star, but maybe he doesn't if he turns down this opportunity. Refusing a direct presidential request to take over as compatant commander in the nationa's main theater of operations is probably as likely to derail your career as taking the job and not doing well.

Second, it's not quite a no-lose proposition, but I think it's fairly close. Most people are incredibly pessimistic at this point. So if there are any positive developments, Petraeus could get credit for them, while failure wouldn't get pinned of him since most people think it's a preordained outcome.

And this is purely analysis from a selfish standpoint, ignoring the presumed desire on the part of a career Army Soldier to serve his country and his Army in the most important post in the world right now.

Posted by: Doug T on January 5, 2007 10:51 AM

Why is Negroponte taking a demotion? Is he going to get the SOS post when the current office-holder goes to prepare for her presidential campaign?

Posted by: dbt on January 5, 2007 01:28 PM

On Fallon:

http://www.warandpiece.com/blogdirs/005383.html

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2007/01/casting_for_the.html

Posted by: KH on January 5, 2007 02:25 PM

dbt--
here's my guess:
Negroponte has just been effectively promoted to Secretary of State.
Or, more precisely, Secretary of State-for-Iraq-Related-Affairs.

Rice will still cut ribbons. She may even get to revisit Russia.

But Bush doesn't care about that stuff anyhow. What he cares about is Iraq. And with Negroponte effectively in control at State, and Gates in control at Defense, he's got the full Contra Team up and running.

Posted by: kid bitzer on January 5, 2007 03:23 PM

Good point about Fallon, John Emerson. Why have we seen so little analysis of Fallon's appointment as a preparation for the attack on Iran?

Posted by: Greg Worley on January 5, 2007 11:43 PM

Well, a panelist on PBS' NewsHour did bring Fallon's skillset up.

Posted by: AlanC9 on January 6, 2007 01:15 AM

It was Pat Lang, cited in the above link, who commented on Fallon on the NewsHour. He's since amplified on the thought at:

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2007/01/casting_for_the.html

"...the appointment of Admiral William Fallon the the post of Commander, US Central Command is surely indicative of intentions. This distinguished officer's career lay altogether within the field of naval aviation and latterly of joint staff and command functions. ... It makes very little sense that a person with this background should be appointed to be theater commander in a a theater in which two essentially "ground" wars are being fought unless it is intended to conduct yet another war which will be different in character."

The appointment is at the very least meant to threaten Iran. Whether it's a bluff, we'll see.

Posted by: KH on January 6, 2007 03:29 AM

DeLong suggests that a Navy man in for CentCom means a naval aviation attack against Iraq. I, personally, suspect that all the Army and Marine guys quailed at being responsible for the current state of utter-FUBAR-ness that being head of CentCom would entail taking the reins of and simply took two steps back when volunteers were called for, leaving Fallon standing out.

Posted by: NBarnes on January 6, 2007 08:44 AM

Laura Rozen has the NewsHour transcript:

http://www.warandpiece.com/blogdirs/005385.html

Also, Ralph Peters:

http://www.nypost.com/seven/01062007/postopinion/opedcolumnists/eyeing_iran_opedcolumnists_ralph_peters.htm

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