Still About the War

"it's certainly not going to stop while two shooting wars are happening"

Pundit's fallacy.

If troop levels in Iraq remain near current levels in 2008, then sure, Iraq will be a central issue of the general election campaign.

But the WH will be able to take Iraq off the table by a reasonably minor reduction in force. If they get the number below 100,000, I think Iraq will have a shockingly small footprint in the general election campaign.

Now, if you want to make the argument that Bush is not particularly likely to to make even a minor reduction in force, that's an argument that I'd have a good deal of sympathy for. But that's a bit different from what you're saying.

"'I think the surge will fail'..This is wishful thinking twice over."
Your intent is that you think the surge and most other things Bush may try to continue pressure on Iraq will fail, so it is a wish that Bush will in fact just get out more or less quickly as opposed to further sustained and troublesome escalation.
That being said, the punditry police have been notified that these words could be interpreted as wishing for failure(then again, there's the fact that "winning" the surge, whatever that might mean, might only embolden and ennable further unheplful violence) and that this will be repeated over and over as proof of ye olde stab in the back.
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If they get the number below 100,000, I think Iraq will have a shockingly small footprint in the general election campaign.

There's some X here such that I agree with you -- I'd say more like 50k than 100k, though it depends not only on the force size but the mission -- but I just don't think that's going to happen. That's the crux of the disagreement, Schumer thinks there's a bipartisan desire to back away from Iraq in particular and Gulf confrontationalism in general, but there just isn't.

What makes you think Schumer has such political skills? He recruited some good candidates in '06 (and actively worked against some even-better ones), but I see no evidence that his skills are "enormous," and certainly prognostication is not his strong point.

"But that's a bit different from what you're saying."

Nah, he said wishful thinking "twice over." You should read more better, Petey. As for this:

"If they get the number below 100,000, I think Iraq will have a shockingly small footprint in the general election campaign."

Well, somehow I think Americans would still care about Iraq even if 99,000 troops were over there, not least because they're going to be caught in a civil war that has destabilized the entire region. What's scary and revealing is that smart people like Schumer, and you, are still talking about Iraq as if it's a problem concerning just Iraq rather than the entire Middle East, indeed the entire world. We're in the early stages of a proxy Sunni-Shia war--proxy if not actual--between the region's two great powers, and suppliers of oil: Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Iraq, quote unquote, will be the dominant issue in the 2012 election.

"There's some X here such that I agree with you -- I'd say more like 50k than 100k, though it depends not only on the force size but the mission"

The crucial thing is for the electorate to perceive 'light at the end of the tunnel'. It's not so much an issue of how many salted peanuts, but just whether or not salted peanuts are being dispensed at all.

"but I just don't think that's going to happen."

If I were betting at 50/50 odds, I'd bet against a reduction in troop levels happening. But at the same time, I wouldn't be all that surprised if it does. Bush is going to face tremendous pressure from the GOP to toss a few salted peanuts.

"Schumer thinks there's a bipartisan desire to back away from Iraq in particular and Gulf confrontationalism in general, but there just isn't."

Here, I think you're dead wrong. Just because the bipartisan desire isn't shared by the WH doesn't mean it's not a very real thing.

What I don't get is why Schumer would even want to get Iraq off the front burner as an issue. It's our issue now, far more than it is theirs.

The way to approach Iraq is through the defining lens of Afghanistan. Afghanistan's gone from being all but won, to being very much on the ropes, during our involvement in Iraq - and if we weren't in Iraq, we'd have plenty of resources to devote to Afghanistan. We could even put Gen. Petraeus there instead of in Iraq.

Afghanistan's still probably winnable. The likelihood of stabilizing Iraq is minuscule. We're losing a winnable war in order to try to save Bush's ass in one that we've already pretty much made a hash of. What sense does that make?

If Schumer had a brain, he'd be making sure that the Senate was about to have hearings on Afghanistan, to educate the public on how tenuous our situation is there.

"What's scary and revealing is that smart people like Schumer, and you, are still talking about Iraq as if it's a problem concerning just Iraq rather than the entire Middle East, indeed the entire world."

I was under the impression that the topic of the thread was the impact of Iraq on the '08 campaign, not the geopolitical impact.

"I was under the impression that the topic of the thread was the impact of Iraq on the '08 campaign, not the geopolitical impact."

Right, so while the Middle East burns HillaryBarackJohn will be free to focus their attentions on the Earned Income Tax Credit.

I agree with RT. Iraq has been a strategic and humanitarian disaster. But, from a political perspective, its been a huge gift to the Democrats. We should want it to be the major campaign issue in 2008, 2012, ...

I don't mean we should want U.S. to remain involved there, but rather that we need to make sure the Republicans own it politically, and continue to pay a price for it. We have to keep reminding the public that the Republican party is the party of George W. Bush and of the Iraq war.

I don't believe Schumer believed what he said. He's a pol. Pols often say things they don't believe.

I also find it bizarre that the usually perceptive Petey believes Schumer's statement. If there are fewer than 100,000 troops by the time of the next election, there are two scenarios under which this could happen. First, the surge works, breaking the back of the insurgency. In this case, the hawks will crow that they were right and the pansy Dems were, as always, shamefully wrong, not to be trusted with Foreign Policy. Big issue. Second, the surge fails, and we start to withdraw from Iraq in failure, having sacrificed many thousands of dead and wounded and hundreds of billions of dollars for no good reason. In the midst of chaos in Iraq, troops still being killed, our cowering like a whipped dog and Iran strutting about like a peacock on steroids, Iraq will be a big issue.

I don't think Schumer's as dumb as everyone thinks he is.

You guys are interpreting this too literally. This statement has nothing to do with what election issues will be relevant as 'common' people cast their ballots in Nov/08.

It is in no uncertain terms a shot across the bow of the surgers and the president.

Schumer is saying (without saying) that when the 08 campaign gets into full swing in the next 6 months, Congress will be in the process of forcing the president's hand, one way or another. He's telling the president that the surge is not the next 'phase' of the war; it is the denouement. After this, the troops start coming home.

The 08 election season has basically already started; of course it's going to be an 08 election issue. Schumer knows exactly what he's doing.

I think we're misreading Schumer's remarks. Clearly if the GOP is foolish enough to keep Iraq in play through 2008, then the Democratic message will write itself. But Democrats shouldn't sit back and assume that everything will be easy. If the GOP develops any brains (i.e., somehow overrides Bush) it will neutralize Iraq within 12 months, leaving Democrats hanging with no alternative message. Schumer is right to assume the "worst" in this case, and be thinking about an alternative approach.

To those who say Iraq can't be neutralized, I offer you the following scenario. In early 2008 the president (coordinating with the presumptive GOP nominee) announce that all troops will be removed from Iraq at a rate of 15,000 per month beginning immediately. The Democrats howl that this is impossible, will leave Iraq to fall into chaos, that it's a completely bogus promise. The American public yawns and moves on to the next issue.

In early 2008 the president (coordinating with the presumptive GOP nominee) announce that all troops will be removed from Iraq at a rate of 15,000 per month beginning immediately.

People assumed such a scenario would take place before the 2004 election, they assumed it would take place before the 2006 election. We're apparently doomed to repeat this blithe assumption every two years.

If Bush were willing to start reducing troop levels for political gain, he clearly would have done so already. Maybe the next President will be willing to play this game, but he isn't. Why would he withdraw troops to benefit his successor when he wasn't willing to do it with his own power on the line?

That being said, the punditry police have been notified that these words could be interpreted as wishing for failure

Yeah. I was about to pull up in my punditry police car and write Matthew a citation.

But even giving Matthew the benefit of the doubt on what he meant, it was an incredibly stupid thing to write. Even if we accept the premise that the surge will fail and we start to withdraw troops, how in any way can that be thought of as the war "wrap[ping] itself up nicely"???

The only way the war can "wrap itself up nicely" is if the surge succeeds.

People assumed such a scenario would take place before the 2004 election, they assumed it would take place before the 2006 election. We're apparently doomed to repeat this blithe assumption every two years.

If Bush were willing to start reducing troop levels for political gain, he clearly would have done so already.

It's kind of funny how quickly views of the President can change. The leftie conventional wisdom for years was that the entire war was about helping Bush and the Republicans politically, so he would adjust the troop level according to what best for Republican electoral chances. Hence the leftie assumption that he'd reduce troops just before the 2004 and 2006 elections.

Now we've done a complete 180, and the leftie assumption is that the President is so stubborn that he's going to leave the troops there no matter what the electoral implications. Heeee.

I'm still furious at nixon and kissinger for their lies during the vietnam war, and I think a lot of other people feel the same way. does schumer really think we will forget so quickly how the iraq war was sustained? I can't vote against bush again in '08, but I can sure vote against his enablers.

"The leftie conventional wisdom for years was that the entire war was about helping Bush and the Republicans politically, so he would adjust the troop level according to what best for Republican electoral chances. Hence the leftie assumption that he'd reduce troops just before the 2004 and 2006 elections."

Well, I fully assumed he'd reduce troop levels before the '04 elections for political reasons, which obviously turned out to be untrue.

But once '04 was done with, I think it has been reasonably obvious that the WH is in legacy protection mode, and that Bush has incentive to not reduce troop levels to avoid taking the blame for the eventual bad outcome of the whole Iraqi Misadventure. Or in other words, I wasn't assuming he'd reduce troop levels before '06.

And while I don't think Bush wants to reduce troop levels before '08, and thus I'd guess the odds are that it won't happen, the question comes down to how much pressure the GOP can put on Bush to save their prospects in an election that will no longer concern Bush.

I'm all for withdrawing but withdrawal does not equal the the end of Iraq as a major issue in American politics. The region is too critical, too oily, for that.

Did you people have an idea how bad it's gonna get over there?

Schumer did a competent job, but if he were a genius we'd have won CT and TN, too. His performance looks better than it was because a) the establishment candidates lost the MT and VA primaries, and b) it was a Dem wave year. He will be similarly benefited in 2008 when the calendar is stacked in our favor. This isn't to say he's a bad DSCC head by any means, just that the "OMG Schumer saved teh party!!!!" meme is a little ridiculous.

To those who say Iraq can't be neutralized, I offer you the following scenario. In early 2008 the president (coordinating with the presumptive GOP nominee) announce that all troops will be removed from Iraq at a rate of 15,000 per month beginning immediately.

I have to second what Steve said. This will not happen. If it did not happen in 2004, and did not happen in 2006, it will not happen in 2008. Bush actually believes in what he's been doing, unfortunately. And short of either him being removed from office or [the million-to-one chance of] his plan actually working, he will keep doing it.

And the problem isn't just Bush, the problem is his GOP enablers. Maybe a few of them are true believers as well, but many of them saw, at some point between 2004 and 2006, that things were going badly. But they made the calculation that given how partisan things had been already and how Bush would dig in his heels, spreading a "stabbed in the back" myth was the best way through for themselves and the Party. Unless they change their minds about that, the best we can hope for is rats deserting a sinking ship.

Your hypothetical may look bad, but it's safely hypothetical. Bush won't change course, Republicans can't force him to by themselves without making it a bipartisan effort, and even if they could they had tied themselves to the war too tightly for it to help them.

The Democrats howl that this is impossible, will leave Iraq to fall into chaos, that it's a completely bogus promise. The American public yawns and moves on to the next issue.

And I say your hypothetical only may look bad, because if the first part of it actually does happen — yippee! Iraq would continue to destablize at more-or-less the same rate it has been for a while, but troops would be out of Iraq, no longer dying pointlessly, ready to be used in places where they actually might be needed, and Democrats would successfully and justifiably take credit for the change in policy rather than complaining about it.

It's kind of funny how quickly views of the President can change.

Well yes, Al, if you look at the views of some liberals at one time, and different liberals at another time, you'll find differences. That was positively enlightening.

If you look at a specific liberal, on the other hand - like me, whose comment you quoted, or Atrios, whose post prompted this discussion, or the guy I was responding to, for that matter, you'll find that none of those individual views have changed. But I don't get it - if someone started off with the assumption that Bush would withdraw troops for partisan advantage, and then revised that assumption based upon actual events, do you believe that would be to his credit, or not?

Now we've done a complete 180, and the leftie assumption is that the President is so stubborn that he's going to leave the troops there no matter what the electoral implications. Heeee.

Yes, that is just so ironic. Never mind the fact that Bush doesn't have any more elections left in his presidency. Idiot.

Back on topic, I find myself in agreement with ostap and the two commenters who followed him/her.

I don't think Schumer is saying anything about what he actually believes. This is political trash talk. The key line in his remarks was "I think the surge will fail."

Of course, we aren't mind readers, but that seems like the most reasonable guess from my perspective.

But I don't get it - if someone started off with the assumption that Bush would withdraw troops for partisan advantage, and then revised that assumption based upon actual events, do you believe that would be to his credit, or not?

Obviously it would be to that person's credit, Steve. We would just have to remember that person's initial error when evaluating their statements in the future.

With Chuck Schumer, it's All About Israel.

Connect the dots. Wake up and smell the bagels. The hotter it is in Iraq, the more the heat gets turned up under the Lobby.

Obviously it would be to that person's credit, Steve.

Then it's odd that you chose to focus on how "funny" it is that some small number of people have changed their minds (of course, you didn't say it was a small number of people, you tried to claim it was "lefties" in general). Instead, you could have focused on the people like Atrios who were right all along, or the people who bizarrely continue to insist Bush will draw down troops for electoral reasons even though he's refused to do so when it could have actually helped him.

What's "funny" to me is that people blithely predict a massive drawdown in 2008 to benefit the Republican Party when no such drawdown took place in 2004 or 2006. And when it fails to materialize again in 2008, you can bet we'll see the same predictions for 2010. Now the people who stubbornly cling to these predictions, they're kinda "funny." But I guess Atrios isn't a lefty or something.

If nothing major changes before 2008, I'd expect the game plan to be much as it's been for the last two elections. A few calculated leaks about how withdrawal plans might be getting drawn up somewhere; a few hints that the White House is considering a new strategy to bring the war to a close. But in terms of actually withdrawing troops for purely political reasons, if you think that will happen you simply haven't been paying attention.

I think several people are confused here.

1. In past elections, Bush's main motivation was his desire to win at all costs. This manifested itself in two different ways: (a) wanting to win elections, and (b) effectuating whatever policies the Democrats believed to be immoral. In past elections, both of those things were pointed in the same direction.

2. Bush would not have been helped electorally by a pre-'04 drawdown. He did win that election after all.

3. We can now say in hindsight that Bush might have been helped electorally by a pre-'06 drawdown. But that wasn't necessarily clear at the time. Karl Rove made a wager as to what the best electoral strategy would be and he lost.

4. Bush only cares about elections that impact himself. Therefore, the '08 election is of no consequence to him. All he cares about now is winning his personal policy fight against the Democratic Party.

Bush would not have been helped electorally by a pre-'04 drawdown. He did win that election after all.

...But that wasn't necessarily clear at the time.

I'm conflating these two thoughts which come from two separate paragraphs, because I think it might have helped you to consider them alongside one another.

"I have to second what Steve said. [A drawdown] will not happen. If it did not happen in 2004, and did not happen in 2006, it will not happen in 2008."

I agree with JP. 2004 was a GOP success story. It's only since on the '06 Democratic sweep that Republican politicans lost their invincibility cloak on war issues. The worm has turned, and the right political move is to find a face-saving way to get out. In the past 20 years I've learned that the worst bets you can ever make is to assume that the Republican party will put, well, anything ahead of making the right _political_ move. (That particular wager is second only to the one where the American voter gives a crap about far-away lands when American lives aren't in the balance.) Hence my reservations.

I tend to trust that sort of political intuition. While I think Bush is selfish and dumb enough to take his whole party off the cliff, I hesitate to bet the Democratic party's future on our deep understanding of George W. Bush's committment to Iraq. George W. Bush, a man who has never committed to anything difficult in his life.

I'm not sure what point you're trying to make, Steve. Karl Rove has a certain theory of political strategy, under which you should always attack and never apologize, particularly on issues of war and peace. If things start to go badly for you, you respond by just becoming more and more extreme in your rhetoric and your actions. The theory is that the American people hate losing and weakness more than they hate disaster, and so they will never go against the practitioners even of a disastrous war that they all oppose unless it begins to look like those practitioners are going to give up anyway. So you keep raising the stakes no matter what. If your opponent puts you in a bad strategic position, you just raise again. And you keep doing it ad infinitum until the odds finally turn in your favor.

Rove bet that his strategy was right in both '04 and '06. He won the first time but lost the second time. There are many possible explanations for this. Maybe he just got lucky in '04. Maybe the strategy is sound but it only has a temporary lifespan. Either way, what matters for the purposes of this discussion is that Rove and Bush believed that they were helping themselves electorally in both elections. Today, however, Rove's strategy has been repudiated, so there's no way anyone could possibly believe that staying in Iraq is a good electoral strategy for the GOPers.

You do understand that I'm agreeing with your basic conclusion here, right? I'm just disagreeing on the reasons. I don't think Bush will pull out of Iraq, but not because he values a certain substantive theory of foreign policy more highly than election results. It's because he has no more elections left.

This entire post is nothing more than mental masturbation for a bunch of liberals who are feeling somewhat righteous based on the last election results… For those of us who were standing in the desert waiting to cross the burm this whole thing was inevitable. We new and said at that time – all of America is backing us right now – and we will take this country quick – People will watch CNN in the bars and cheer - but then we have to keep the piece and hand it back and that will cost lives and the American public doesn’t have the stomach for that and they don’t have the stomach for stomping the country completely into the ground. So we saw this coming – even if not to this extent.

The U.S. Military can do incredible things – but wining the piece is tougher and more costly than winning the war. Wars are inherently tied to politics – but the use of the current situation and all the spin placed by liberals in general and in this post Specifically - refering to failure of the military as “Wishful Thinking” is probably the single most disgusting thing I have read to date. So if more soldiers die that makes the liberals more righteous and they can throw that in the administrations face!! I want to win the war screw the politics.

I get sick of hearing people say they support the troops but not the war – How about supporting the troops by supporting what we are doing and getting behind setting things straight there so we can come home and not have to go back… If we come out too soon we will be back, and I don’t want my son there (unless he is vacationing at some peaceful resort north of Baghdad, it would be a beautiful location for one!)

I said it when the Republicans were in control of congress and I will say it now – If you don’t like the way the war is going give solid, viable alternatives. Otherwise shut up and support us. Pulling out so we can go back later is a bad option. Iraq is a combat zone not a political issue to be wielded by either party!

JP:

Turn that around for a moment. Maybe Rove's strategy works most of the time and 2006 was just the exception.

This entire post is nothing more than mental masturbation for a bunch of liberals who are feeling somewhat righteous based on the last election results… For those of us who were standing in the desert waiting to cross the burm this whole thing was inevitable. We new and said at that time – all of America is backing us right now – and we will take this country quick – People will watch CNN in the bars and cheer - but then we have to keep the piece and hand it back and that will cost lives and the American public doesn’t have the stomach for that and they don’t have the stomach for stomping the country completely into the ground. So we saw this coming – even if not to this extent.

The U.S. Military can do incredible things – but wining the piece is tougher and more costly than winning the war. Wars are inherently tied to politics – but the use of the current situation and all the spin placed by liberals in general and in this post Specifically - refering to failure of the military as “Wishful Thinking” is probably the single most disgusting thing I have read to date. So if more soldiers die that makes the liberals more righteous and they can throw that in the administrations face!! I want to win the war screw the politics.

I get sick of hearing people say they support the troops but not the war – How about supporting the troops by supporting what we are doing and getting behind setting things straight there so we can come home and not have to go back… If we come out too soon we will be back, and I don’t want my son there (unless he is vacationing at some peaceful resort north of Baghdad, it would be a beautiful location for one!)

I said it when the Republicans were in control of congress and I will say it now – If you don’t like the way the war is going give solid, viable alternatives. Otherwise shut up and support us. Pulling out so we can go back later is a bad option. Iraq is a combat zone not a political issue to be wielded by either party!

Good comment.Thanks admin.

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With Chuck Schumer, it's All About Israel.

Connect the dots. Wake up and smell the bagels. The hotter it is in Iraq, the more the heat gets turned up under the Lobby.

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Very interesting project. I have a weird problem though. Prism created shortcuts on my desktop for GMail and Calendar and they work great. When I try to do the same with Google Maps the webapp link gets created, but double-clicking on it just opens Prism configuration dialog box. Any ideas why?

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Hot forum alanındaki diğer forumlardan farklı bir forumculuk anlayışıyla eğitim ve öğretim üzerinde çalışmaktadır.Ayrıca bu forum diğer forum siteleri içinde nadirde olsa bulunan diziler ( kurtlar vadisi,kurtlar vadisi pusu,yaprak dökümü vb.)Ayrıntılı olarak mevcuttur.Forumhot bünyesinde çalışan yüzlerce moderatör ve üyeyle geniş kapsamlı bir forumdur.

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Oyun oyunlar oyun oyna gibi kelimeler toner kartuş konuları yer almakta bedava oyunlar
2 Oyunculu Oyunlar - Yetenek Oyunları - Dövüş Oyunları - Aksiyon Macera Oyunları - Nişancılık Oyunları - Spor Oyunları - Yarış Oyunları - Zeka Hafıza Oyunları - oyun çocukta doğuştan gelen bir tabiat ve Allah'ın onda yarattığı bir içgüdüdür. Bunun temelinde çocuğun fiziksel gelişiminin mükemmel bir tarzda gelişimdirMotor Oyunları - Mario Oyunları - Savaş Oyunları - Strateji Taktik Oyunları - Yemek Pişirme Oyunları - Dekor Oyunları - Boyama Kitabı Oyunları - 3 Boyutlu Oyunlar - Hugo Oyunları - Sonic Oyunları - Webcam Oyunları - Peri Güzellik Oyunları - Battleon Oyunları - Süper Oyunlar - İlizyon Oyunları - Komik Oyunlar - Teletabi Oyunları - Giysi Giydirme oyunları - Makyaj yapma oyunları -çocuğun en özenli işidir. Yetişkin için iş ve kazanç ne ise onun için de oyun odur... Dış dünyanın kavranılması öğrenilmesi ve hayata hazırlanmanın en ... Kız oyunları - Çocuk Oyunları - işletme oyunları - varmısın yokmusun - Bebek Oyunları - Oyun - Animasyon - Oyun Oyna - Oyunlar - Oyun Cambazı - Bedava Oyunlar - motosiklet dergisi - animasyon - renkli toner tozları - fotokopi toneri - kartuş - toner - boş toner - boş kartuş - toner dram - toner chip - toner tozu - toner dolumu - kartuş dolumu - kartuş dolum malzemeleri - kartuş dolum makinesi - renkli toner dolumu - Bedava Oyun - Kral oyun
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Funny how Donohue's point seems to be being made as this post devolved from discussing goodness for goodness' sake vs religion demading that you be good, to gay rights and gay bashing, violent content and freewheeling epithets. I always thought of myself as a fun loving atheist. Can't we all just get along?

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Quite so. 9/11 obviously didn't "change everything" but it equally obviously did change politics in this country enormously. It took us out of the 1990s dynamic where voters didn't really care about world affairs and returned us to the dynamic that prevailed throughout the bulk of the 20th century where one foreign policy issue or another tended to play a very prominent role in campaigns. There's no particular reason to think this will stop any time soon, but it's certainly not going to stop while two shooting wars are happening and the legendarily stubborn George W. Bush is in the White House. America's policies vis-a-vis the Middle East and the broader Muslim world are, whether one likes it or not, going to be absolutely central in 2008.

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