Surgers Versus The Surge

The Washington Post reports that America's generals don't think much of Bush's plan "to add up to 20,000 troops to the 132,000 U.S. service members already on the ground." Interestingly, even though they don't put it that way, even th eauthors of the surge plan think this is a bad idea: "Kagan and Keane both emphasized that the surge has to be both substantial (minimum 30,000 troops) and sustained (minimum 18 months)." A Kagan-Keane sized escalation won't be mounted because the Joint Chiefs say it's logistically impossible. But according to Kagan and Keane success requires "a surge of at least 30,000 combat troops lasting 18 months or so. Any other option is likely to fail."

This is the sort of thing that can make a man shrill; I'm not sure what other indication you need that this cruel farce is being undertaken in bad faith. Or does Bush have some actual reason to believe that the number of additional troops required for the Iraq mission to succeed just so happens to be the exact number of troops who it's logistically possible to send? That's be a hell of a coincidence, wouldn't it?

1/10/07 1:30AM del.icio.us this incoming links

Comments

This reminds me of making a numbers bet with Lenny from down on the corner. Kagan and Keane "oh yea ye, oh yea ye ... 30,000 or so. 18 months or so. Might work. Hey Get back to me!

Posted by: lower tiberius on January 10, 2007 01:43 AM

expanded view from a non-involved dead truth perspective orrr how I learned to accept the surge and enjoy network favorites

let me get this straight ... Bush gets home from church and tells his mum and dad he's headed out to the stall to feed his pet goat, but his folks say No!, not until he's changed his sunday school clothes and written in his project book as instructed on that days lessons discussed about the nature of forming bad habits such as substance abuse and compulsion addiction. He reluctantly agrees with, "oh shucks ... okay", and with an odd look in his eyes disappears into his room where he opens the composition book past that day's notes and slowly tears a blank page out and slips it into his slacks' pocket. He removes his tie and tosses it into the closet where it falls to the floor and closes the door on which is a full length mirror. He hesitates to assess the clothing, sans the tie, and the features of his face, then grins broadly and makes for the rear screen door out to the back porch. Leaping the last few stair steps, he trots to the the back of the barn against which, lean things he recognizes as implements but of which he has no knowledge of their workings. In a matted area of thatch is the generous evidence of a recent visiting racoon who's done his business and then been on his way. He grins broadly again and stomps in it's center leaving the deep imprint of his crisp dress shoes. For only reasons he would, but may not be aware of, he slides his hand into his pocket and pulls out the blank page torn from the sunday studies composition book, folding over and again until it's not possible to continue to do so, then places it in the center of the heel print at it's deepest part. He steps back, views this momentarily, then steps forward and stomps at the pile driving the remaining mound over the paper and print. He smiles again and turns toward the house loosing and losing the shoe to the sticky muck and considers bending to remove it but instead hops a few feet toward the house then gives up and just walks in an uneven gait one shoe, one sock to the back porch where he's met by his parents who are by this time changed and seated comfortably on the porch. When they immediately admonish him for not being changed and ask about his sunday school lessons, he assures them he's seen to them as advised. His mother demands he go in the house and change and remain in his room for the remainder of the day. He cringes past both and near gleefully tromps down the hall and enters his room where he lays out on the bed still one shoe, one soggy sock and pulls the phone from the nightstand. As he dials he can imagine variations of what will be said, and as the receiver is answered on the other end he responds to hello with, "I need you to help me get my shoe back".

Posted by: lower tiberius on January 10, 2007 01:56 AM

"But according to Kagan and Keane success requires "a surge of at least 30,000 combat troops lasting 18 months or so. Any other option is likely to fail."

Kagan and Keane are cynically smart.

By putting a number out there that can't be met, they are able to avoid the possibility of being wrong.

McCain is playing the same game.

-----

That said, the 30,000 number is no more magical than a 20,000 number. Neither is enough to nation build in Iraq. Both are enough to accomplish their political purpose of sending a clear message in both America and Iraq that the occupation will continue for the duration of the Bush administration.

This war has been justified and explained based on intentional falsehoods for the last 5 years. Why should they quit now?

Posted by: Petey on January 10, 2007 02:15 AM

You wrote a very short, simple post probably a year or so ago that simply pointed out that sending more of our citizens, neighbors, friends, and countrymen to die in this stupid war was incredilby immoral.

Immoral.

You said it better than that, because I remember its message if not its actual words. I cannot believe that anyone who knows anyone involved in this war supports it, nevermind those who know people who might enter into it in the very near term. It is immoral to send people of to, at best, not accomplish anything, and at worst, to fucking die.

I think you should go find that post and put it up again, simply based on the fact that Dems are in control, and it is so sicko, sicko, sicko to think that we can't stop this craziness until the next (horribly inane and lowest-common-denominator as always) presidential election.

This war is awful, simply awful in an awful way that I have never, ever seen in my life (35 right now).

I'll leave it at that, but this really is a moral question.

Posted by: abject funk on January 10, 2007 03:14 AM

Or does Bush have some actual reason to believe that the number of additional troops required for the Iraq mission to succeed just so happens to be the exact number of troops who it's logistically possible to send?

Could this be proof that the Iraq War is being guided by an Intelligent Designer?

Posted by: joedokes@gmail.com on January 10, 2007 04:40 AM

What's sad is that we could probably keep the current Iraqi government from falling with about 1000 American troops...and give the people of Iraq the $100 billion or so we'd save by bringing the rest of our troops home...

...and triple the annual income of every single Iraqi.

Posted by: alphie on January 10, 2007 06:50 AM

Kagan and Keane are cynically smart. By putting a number out there that can't be met, they are able to avoid the possibility of being wrong. McCain is playing the same game.

Yup. We'll see, but I don't think it's going to work this time. John Edwards has been working that "McCain doctrine" line as hard as he possibly can, and as skeptical as I am that the media will ever give McCain trouble, I think it's going to be difficult for him to make this distinction without sounding like a quibbler, a language game player.

"I have supported sending more troops to Iraq. I have said that we need to send a surge of troops now. But although the president has agreed to send a surge of troops to Iraq now, he is only sending 70% of the number that I want, and so I bear no responsibility for his plan's failure."

I dunno, but I do not think that's going to fly.

Posted by: DivGuy on January 10, 2007 08:07 AM

I'm with Petey.

Bush doesn't care if the additional troops just sit in barracks and play computer games for the duration of the war. So the actual numbers needed for real or hypothetical military missions is irrelevant. This is all about showing "resolve" - showing it to his enemies in Iraq and showing it to his domestic critics. He wants to send a message to everyone that a US withdrawal will not happen on his watch.

Bush still holds out hope that a show of imperturbable Deciderly commitment in the face of opposition at home and in Iraq will eventually cause the insurgency to lose heart and crumble - through the magic of resolve, unrelated to any specific military tactics.

Posted by: Dan Kervick on January 10, 2007 08:16 AM

"I'm not sure what other indication you need that this cruel farce is being undertaken in bad faith. Or does Bush have some actual reason to believe that the number of additional troops required for the Iraq mission to succeed just so happens to be the exact number of troops who it's logistically possible to send?"

1. It’s funny what a man can convince himself of. I suspect the average well-to-do dairy farmer or sugar magnate has convinced himself that his government-protected cartel is actually good for other people. They don’t see themselves as rapacious.

The major issue in Bush’s Presidency is the war. It would be easy for Bush to convince himself of all sorts of odd things, and almost unnatural if he hadn’t.

2. Bunkers such as the White House has become create odd mentalities.

3. People prefer winning over losing. The desire to win can overwhelm a man’s reason.

Not caring if thousands die in support of an almost undoubted failure would be purely evil. W’s a screw-up, but he doesn’t seem evil.

In addition, if W thought that a course of action would almost undoubtedly fail, and that history would judge him more severely if he sacrificed thousands to the obviously doomed cause, he would not likely view it as in his interests to take that action.

In short, I think Bush likely thinks he's doing the right thing, wrong though he is.

Posted by: ostap on January 10, 2007 09:00 AM

The Washington Post reports that America's generals don't think much of Bush's plan "to add up to 20,000 troops to the 132,000 U.S. service members already on the ground."

But this is just an utter lie by Matthew.

If one actually reads the article to which Matthew links, one learns that the generals were not initially on board for a number of reasons, such as that they needed more out of Maliki and they needed more political and economic progress. That is, the generals believed that a plan that relied purely on an increase in US troops was a bad idea. But the generals have become satisified that the plan does not, in fact, rely solely on an incrase in US troops - that the other required elements will also be included. So now, contra what Matthew is saying, the generals are on board.

To conflate the past tense and the present tense, as Matthew does, is the sort of thing that can make a man shrill. I'm not sure what other indication you need that Matthew's posting on Iraq is being undertaken in bad faith.

Posted by: Al on January 10, 2007 10:10 AM

My plan is to send in exactly 19,128 troops. And they'll all wear University of Hawaii sweatshirts and Keds sneakers. In each lieutenant's left pocket will be a photo of Jim Piersall. Each captain will take snuff and use 19th century slang. Each colonel will hop around making a noise like a hungry wallaby. Privates will go "oooh oooh" like Joe E. Ross from the original Car 54 Where Are You? whenever anything daunting appears on the horizon.

Anything different and it will fail.

Posted by: Jeffrey Davis on January 10, 2007 10:42 AM

Agreed. Except that Matt's bad faith decision is designed to lead a reader to a certain conclusion, with the cost to readers being the possibility of being misled (of course, Al, you weren't misled).

Bush's bad faith decision is designed to protect his political legacy, with the cost to American servicemen being their lives. This is the kind of thing that could make a man shrill.

Posted by: a on January 10, 2007 10:44 AM

I really think Petraeus and Odierno have presented the President with a conditional plan. We have seen some of what might be the conditions:No Army or Marine officer over Ptraeus's head micromanaging;additional troops; pressure on Maliki; etc. The $1 billion in new reconstruction money will probably be under Petraeus's control, and is a big factor in my believing that most of what we are seeing, and will hear tonight comes directly from Petraeus.

Posted by: bob mcmanus on January 10, 2007 10:46 AM

Al pretends to be a mind reader. He uses "so" as if he's demonstrated a causal connection. He hasn't. He's asserted one.

It's the kind of thing that makes a troll a shill.

Posted by: Jeffrey Davis on January 10, 2007 10:47 AM

It's pretty incredible that the terms of debate are slanted so far rightward that no one points out that hundreds of thousands of troops are available. If America basically apologizes to the world for screwing the pooch and points out that while what's done is done, letting Iraq turn into Khmer Rouge-era Cambodia isn't in anyone's interests, a multinational force could be raised to bring stability to Iraq, given the right diplomacy and American concessions.

Posted by: guy on January 10, 2007 03:21 PM

If Bush's plan is "to add up to 20,000 troops to the 132,000 U.S. service members already on the ground," then the surge has already been accomplished. The troops in Iraq number has hovered around 130,000 for a couple of years but in November it had jumped to 152,000, per Rumsfeld. Here's the link. Is it naive to think that this little fact will give pause either to those who say there are no troops or those who think 20,000 more will tip the balance?

Posted by: Retief on January 10, 2007 06:07 PM

I am always amazed when I read these things. I would have guessed that the first thought in every American's mind regarding the President's speech would be "God bless him. I hope he's right. I hope this helps bring peace and prosperity to the suffering people of Iraq, the greater Middle East, and everywhere." I mean, y'all do want success here, right? Since no one has expressed this natural first thought, I'll do it myself: "God bless you, Mr. President. Hope you, and we, succeed in this noble task." Carry on now with whatever it is you do here.

Posted by: TexasTom on January 10, 2007 06:55 PM

I would have guessed that the first thought

First thought? How 2001.

Posted by: Jeffrey Davis on January 10, 2007 07:32 PM

The policy is criminal-- reckless disregard toward US troops. There is no plausible and compelling purpose for the increase, along with everything else about this unjust and catastrophic venture.

War on Terror? No. Perpetual War of Terror, which conveniently creates vast numbers of new "Islamic Extremists", and so on and so on…. What a leader.

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Bush's bad faith decision is designed to protect his political legacy, with the cost to American servicemen being their lives. This is the kind of thing that could make a man shrill.

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