At Their Word

"When foreign leaders issue threats against us, we take them at their word and act accordingly."

"So I had a choice to make: Either take the word of a madman, or defend America. Given that choice, I will defend America every time."

Hmmm.

The mindset is that if we adopt this approach, no one will idly threaten us any longer, as they know we take threates seriously.

In terms of validity, it's equivalent to the mindset that says if we overthrow Saddam's regime, all the other bad actors around the world who covet WMDs will be scared straight since they know we mean business.

I understand that a large number of people actually think this way, but what I don't understand is how, knowing as we do that Iran has hardly been "scared straight" by our adventure in Iraq, they can still cling to this simplistic model of human behavior.

Hmm, let's see. We overthrew the dictator right next door to Iran and now we have much of the U.S. military massed right across their border. And yet they still talk as tough as ever. At some point, is it worth considering that we might have been wrong about how they would react, and how people react to such things in general?

Matt, I think you're missing the point here: it might be totally nuts but it sounds nice. Priorities, man, priorities.

what I don't understand is how, knowing as we do that Iran has hardly been "scared straight" by our adventure in Iraq, they can still cling to this simplistic model of human behavior

they want the world to work that way. just like they want the death penalty to deter crime.

Woah.

If someone threatens you, you don't take it at face value? That's seriously, seriously crazy.

Of course people may lie to you. The thing is, you don't know if they are lying or not. Matthew wierdly seems to assume a world where we would know if someone is lying to us.

(P.S. - Matthew is lying when he says that Bush "promised" to "end tyranny". If one actually reads the text of the WH document, it ways we will work toward that goal. Which we are, including with respect to China. In China, we do this through engagement. Strangely enough, China's leaders didn't react to our engagement by nuking us. Matthew must be baffled.)

Read between the lines. "When foreign leaders issue threats against us and we really want to go to war with them, we take them at their word and act accordingly."

Al,

Suppose there was a foreign leader who had a history of making threats that he never carried out. Its just common sense to ignore those threats after a while. You disagree?

Which is why in Al's world when he plays a game of pick up basketball and the other team says "I will destroy you!" he kills them. See how really sane he is?

Ah yes Arnold Kling the microeconomist who doesn't understand game theory!

This is an excellent point and blends into another complaint I've had. A lot of initial proponents of the war who later conceded that it was at least a strategic mistake tended to resolve their cognitive dissonance by insisting that the burden of proof was and should have been on Saddam to demonstrate that he didn't pose the threat that the Bush Administration argued he posed. I'm thinking of (without citing) Andrew Sullivan, among others.

As was pointed out by Victor above, this sounds nice. But just as with the take-'em-at-their-word talking point, it confuses a procedural principle for a moral one. Placing the burden of proof on some party or taking that party's word on certain issues isn't a matter of discerning who really in a moral sense ought to bear the burden of proof, or whose word in a moral sense ought to be trusted, but is instead a method calculated to get the right results. And, being procedural, its only merit is in actually getting the results right.

As anyone with their eyes open for the last three or four years can attest, by that standard, putting the burden of proof where these people have put it, and taking the word of those whose words these people have taken, doesn't have a lot to recommend it.

I've talked to war supporters who say that if Saddam didn't have WMD's, the logical thing for him to do would have been to fully cooperate in 2002/2003. Given that he didn't cooperate fully (even though he did, for the most part, cave and get humiliated), the only logical conclusion we could come to was that he had WMD's.

But, based on his behavior the previous 20 years, it was obvious that Saddam was reckless and not terribly rational.

So, the point is, you can't just take people's word for it. And, similarly, you can't just interpret people's behavior as if they are doing the logical, rational thing (as you define it).

Oh, Matthew, there you go taking Arnold Kling at his word again ...

I preferred Arnold Kling in the early seasons, when he wore dresses and had funnier lines.

Anyway, as a writer on foreign policy, he makes for a weak FlackCentral economist.

America's foreign policy apparatus had failed.
From acadamia through the think tanks to the Pentagon and Intelligence services. The questions is why.
It's beyond ability to execute, I think it's the very conception of America, the World and how the two react to each other. Americans just aren't capable enough to be the World's hegemon. Other countries figured this out a while ago. The age of the hegemon is over.
Somebody go tell Dick Cheney, Bill Kristol and Bobby Kagan.

Jim W, *nobody* could have cooperated fully enough for George; that's clear. Blix (remember him) checked out dozens, if not a hundred, sites suggested by the US, and found no WMD's, or anything needed in the production of 'vast stockpiles'. Given that George and Co was claiming that they *knew*, they were proven to be liars.

Far from being "crazy", Kling's principle seems to be merely a natural extension of what is for most intellectuals standard practice: always take domestic leaders at their word. Hence, if Bush asserts that he invaded Iraq for the purposes of spreading democracy, then it must be so (even if the current assertion contradicts earlier ones). No other motives can be imputed, and no futher inquiry is required.

I've talked to war supporters who say that if Saddam didn't have WMD's, the logical thing for him to do would have been to fully cooperate in 2002/2003... the only logical conclusion we could come to was that he had WMD's.

But, based on his behavior the previous 20 years, it was obvious that Saddam was reckless and not terribly rational.

I've always wondered about that. Didn't he need to present some level of ability to defend his borders, in order to maintain security (as most nations do, particularly those in "hot" areas)?

If so, it seems actually perfectly rational for him to have prevaricated somewhat - he needed to convince us that he had disarmed (since we and Britain were really the drum-beaters for war) while at the same time not admitting weakness to his neighbors, with whom he had already waged war.

The whole "he was just a madman" line of thinking has never convinced me. Evil and cruel, absolutely. But asking why he didn't take a simpler route ignores non-US-based risk factors.

Al:

Matt's point is that in the realm of politics, people say all kinds of things to satisfy internal and external stakeholders. Understanding these leaders' interests and stakeholders goes a long way toward predicting their future behavior.

An instructive example of this was when Yeltsin went to China and in a joint meeting with Chinese leaders rattled the sabre about how America needed to watch its step because Russia was still a formidable power. We didn't all run for the hills and and declare that the Cold War had (and pardon the pun) warmed up again. Why? Because we knew and understood that Yeltsin was answering domestic critics who accused him of selling out the country to the West.

Kling's position - that we should take all of these pronouncements at face value - is close to useless in the international relations context. Certainly we take them into account, but it would be crazy to hand over the decision-making of our international actions to the speechwriters of a foreign leader. And yet, if we follow Kling's proposition exactly as written, that is what we're doing.

Now, I think Kling would respond that, of course he doesn't mean for his doctrine to be taken literally, but rather that we sometimes underestimate the extent to which the words spoken by a foreign leader are what they really believe. And, no doubt, he's thinking of Nazi Germany, and the disgracful performance of some Westerners to dismiss Hitler's belicose rhetoric.

I would respond to this modified version of Kling by saying the following:

(1) Hitler's rhetoric wasn't the reason Western governments should have been more responsive - it was his actions (Annexing Czechoslovakia and Austria, massing armies in violation of treaty obligations, etc.); and

(2) If we're going to give greater weight to the words of foreign leaders, then we cannot justifiably ONLY giving them to threats. What about diplomatic assurances of non-aggression? What about statements of support? What about discussions about economic issues? The only rational defense I can see for giving higher consideration for threats is because the consequences could be more serious. But that, I think, is a thin reed upon which to base an aggressive foreign policy, because it would mean that Yeltsin's "threat" - coming from a country with intercontinental nukes no less - is WAY higher than an tin pot dictator's.

In the end, if a manifesto cannot provide practical guidance for acting in the world as it is, it represents nothing more than wishing the world were simpler.

szr, who didn't plan on writing such a long post. But then again, rarely plans anything about his life. Why should his posts be any different? Hmmm.... Maybe if he expressed his posts as a threat....

f someone threatens you, you don't take it at face value? That's seriously, seriously crazy.

Of course people may lie to you. The thing is, you don't know if they are lying or not.

Someone threatens you. You have two options:
a. immediately engage in self defense, bearing risk of immediate harm
b. try to use other cues (historical, contextual) to analyze the actual level of threat, and respond accordingly.

Matthew wierdly seems to assume a world where we would know if someone is lying to us.

All that is being assumed is that the spoken threat itself is not the only knowledge we have about someone's veracity. The alternate approach is to discard otherwise useful information.

Matt is making the wrong point here. No leader of a foreign nation has threatened an unprovoked attack on American soil. Nobody (outside of Al Qaeda, who we do need to take seriously) has threatened an invasion of the U.S., terrorist bombings in the U.S., etc. What people threaten is that they will resist our attempts to expand hegemony in their region by force. Which is what this is really about: so long as we go around the world interfering in the affairs of distant nations, we are going to get people "threatening" to resist our efforts.

I'm not sure why people seem to think that "tak[ing] them at their word and act[ing] accordingly" means engaging in preemptive violence. If someone threatens me, I could call the cops. Or buy a gun. Or just make sure my door is locked at night. All of those things are ways of "act[ing] accordingly". I don't have to go and kill the person in response.

As far as I can tell, the only thing Kling is saying is that we ought not completely ignore such a person - and I agree. That, BTW, is the opposite of what some said about Saddam, for example - that he posed no threat whatsoever, regardless of what he said.

Good post, SZR. We agree that we shouldn't take leader's statements literally. So Israel shouldn't assume that Ahmadinejad (damn, this guy needs a snappy nickname ASAP!) or Hamas or Hezbollah "really mean" what they say about Israel. The next question is, if they didn't literally mean it, why did they say it? What interests of "stakeholders" was being served? How likely are these "stakeholders" to agree literally with the statement and how powerful are they? Unless we know that, we don't know how seriously to take the statements, but we can't just wave them off as "domestic politics".

Al:

As far as I can tell, the only thing Kling is saying is that we ought not completely ignore such a person - and I agree. That, BTW, is the opposite of what some said about Saddam, for example - that he posed no threat whatsoever, regardless of what he said.

"some said."

[cue Christmasy music]

And though it's been said, many times, many ways:

Jeeeesus...Chriiiiist...Al's...a...hack.

If someone threatens you, you don't take it at face value? That's seriously, seriously crazy.

Al, mail me your wallet or I'll detonate the IED hidden in your chair.

Taking nutty world leaders' threats at their word is not only the wrong policy to end global tyranny, but in fact ensconces tyranny... these madmen tyrannize us, if we, by our foolish policy of reaction, commit ourselves to respond, with force or with rhetoric, to every bloody thing they say. A tyrant's poor citizenry may have little leverage against his ill-conceived remonstrations; a superpower should have all the leverage it can muster in the service of world peace.

Inflammatory rhetoric from the lunatic fringe (i.e. Ahmadinejad, Kim and Chavez) will naturally escalate if we promise to let it get under our skin. What nonsense!

Taking nutty world leaders' threats at their word is not only the wrong policy to end global tyranny, but in fact ensconces tyranny... these madmen tyrannize us, if we, by our foolish policy of reaction, commit ourselves to respond, with force or with rhetoric, to every bloody thing they say. A tyrant's poor citizenry may have little leverage against his ill-conceived remonstrations; a superpower should have all the leverage it can muster in the service of world peace.

Inflammatory rhetoric from the lunatic fringe (i.e. Ahmadinejad, Kim and Chavez) will naturally escalate if we promise to let it get under our skin. What nonsense!

I dunno, I think you have to walk backwords a pretty far way from
we take them at their word and act accordingly
to
we ought not completely ignore such a person

The first implies that we act as though the threat carries a presumption of certainty, and any action afterwords should assume that it does, regardless of the value of any information to the contrary. The second statement only says that we include the threat as part of our information, which is hardly controversial.

The only bridge is that if we assume that "acting accordingly" is to then do further analysis, which may lead us to not taking them at their word. Somehow, I doubt that is what he is suggesting here.

Could we have an example of "threats against us"? I may be missing something but I can't recall Ahmadinejad threatening to launch an attack on the United States. He has been highly critical of American foreign policy. But he also is careful to distinguish the government from the people of the US. In his letter of last November he wrote,

"I pray to the Almighty to bless the Iranian and American nations and indeed all nations of the world with dignity and success."

I am perfectly willing to REFUSE to take that prayer at face value. But where is the threat that I AM supposed to take at face value?

To Al - I think you're underestimating Kling's statement. He says "When foreign leaders issue threats against us, we take them at their word and act accordingly." That is a stronger statement then your much more reasonable "...we ought not completely ignore such a person". Obviously we'd be foolish to ignore the person and his or her statements. But rejecting Kling's strong position does not logically entail completely ignoring the words of foreign leaders.

It sounds like you and I are closer to each others' position than you and Kling.

To applecor - thanks for the compliment! I do take Hamas leaders seriously because they back up their rhetoric with actions and (in certain cases) inactions. Regarding actions - they are responsible for attacks on Israel, its military and its citizens. Regarding their inactions - they refuse to drop their position that Israel shouldn't exist despite international incentives for them to do so. Arafat used to use the same rhetoric, but he renounced his earlier views on Israel's right to exist after the Madrid and Oslo accords. I see no evidence Hamas intends to renounce their views and considerable evidence they intend to keep them.

Ahmadinejad, to me, represents a genuine challenge. It seems to me that at least part of his "stick-it-to-Israel-and-the-US" rhetoric was designed bolster his popularity at home. He has been, unlike Hamas, willing to negotiate. He has also, unlike Hamas, been unwilling to do more than (perhaps) covertly support attacks on Israel and (perhaps, but less likely) the US forces in Iraq. I think precisely because Iran has been careful about their actions, this budding standoff could be solved in a diplomatic "grand bargain".

The problem with accepting the Klingian (Klingon?) position is that we'd be ignoring the change for just such a diplomatic "grand bargain". Does that make us, as a country, better or worse off?

szr, who wonders what a war with Iran would do for the value of his two Persian rugs. Maybe his interests are aligned with the Bush Administration's after all.

"When foreign leaders issue threats against us, we take them at their word and act accordingly." - so the next time Osama threatens us with nuclear annihilation unless we cut off aid to Israel, we'll take him at his word and cut off aid to Israel? Doesn't sound very neo-con to me, somehow.

Of course people may lie to you. The thing is, you don't know if they are lying or not. Matthew wierdly seems to assume a world where we would know if someone is lying to us.

Someimes yes, sometimes no. For example, when the Cheney Adminisration was selling the American Public and the World on why we need to invade Iraq, stat, I knew they were full of it. Didn't you?

I'd like to follow up on my 2 identical posts with this afterthought:

Just when will we start responding to threats against our homeland, military and interests abroad with increased human intelligence to evaluate the threat? I don't know about you, but I'm tired of homeland security and global interests as sound bites, poll numbers, and dems vs. GOP. I agree with SZR... When Ahmadinejad speaks, it's for political reasons we must analyze. But when he says "Let's wipe Israel off the map", we shouldn't be asking ourselves what a map is or what he means by wipe! We know perfectly well what he means. We need to know his intentions. Enter intelligence.

Yes, Ed, they were full of it, and we all knew it. But it didn't help that the media swallowed it hook, line, etc. They can only beat the drum of war if CNN, etc., broadcast it.

Where was the righteous criticism? Where was the loyal opposition? Could Cheney be, in fact, not telling the truth about WMD?

Just look at the recent Blitzer interview of Cheney. After months, years of substantiation of the lies and deceptions of OVP, Cheney is still shoveling it on CNN. And when Blitzer tries to demonstrate just a drop of disingenuousness (Focus on the Family etc.), Cheney bites his head off, and Wolf is left to whimper about how sorry he is to have to even ask.

What chance does the American public have against administration lies if the media can hardly stand up?

Kling's list it too ambitious and has lots of holes. And Kling knows that. It's clear from his post that Kling is trying to develop a world outlook, he knows he's not all done.

For these reasons, Yglesias should have been more charitable and less snarky. The principle isn't "Totally nuts", it's exaggerated. Eventually, Kling should come around to something like "Threats should be responded to appropriately after careful analysis". Or even "Speak softly and carry a big stick". Yglesias should propose an improvement, not just be so negative.

More deeply, Kling wants to be the center of "The Great Conversation" and doesn't have the position that would require.

Yglesias' description of Yeltsin in China, though, is exactly on point. Taking threats at face value does seem very dangerous. Children sometimes use that excuse.

In the case of the Iranian nuclear threats, I think that they should be considered extremely grave. The Islamist belief in suicide has been proven. It is so ideal for a nuclear confrontation that I wonder if the Islamist adopters of the practice had that in mind all along.

Nuclear holocaust is not to be taken lightly.

Nuclear holocaust is not to be taken lightly.

Nor is Sandman Insane handing out suitcase nukes willy nilly to Al Quaeda types and dropping anthrax bombs from balsawood drones. That should definitely not be taken lightly. You are so right. Also, fags getting married should not be taken lightly. Could embolden Teh Enemy.

Duh. Among other things, game theory contemplates something called "bluffing," a form of "deception," itself a common feature of "negotiation." Rationality requires that false statements not be believed. This is not controversial.

Kling adopts an old bit of business: rhetorically claiming to do the enemy the courtesy of taking them seriously, something liberals purportedly don't. I recall Walt Rostow doing this, first w/r/t the Chinese, then the Vietnamese, then, toward the end, the Nicaraguans.

I think Nina's right. We don't have to approach policy based upon fears or biases regarding certain leaders and their hostile language. What separates Hitler from Ahmadinejad, Chavez, and Kim (besides 1,000,000 more Dark Side points, maybe just half a million for Kim) is that Germany was united behind this hostile war machine and had the will to assert its influence through overt aggression. Harping about appeasement simply over language employed by other leaders is counterproductive.

Kling's precept is related to Cheney's 'one percent doctrine' (see Ron Suskind), also a textbook departure from rationality under conditions of uncertainty. Another textbook distinction, this one from IR: intentions v. capabilities.

Nuclear holocaust is not to be taken lightly.

I sense a Mel Brooks musical a-coming...

"Threats should be responded to appropriately after careful analysis".

No! Threats should be responded to inappropriately after lazy, slipshod analysis.

Come on. That's your doctrine? That people ought to do what they ought to do? You've just slightly begged the question.

Actually, in context, Kling is hardly being a warmonger. He disavows the idea of spreading liberal democracy by force. As I read the statement, he's an isolationist, but not a complete pacifist.

KH I like your intentions vs. capabilities, which is more than just a subtle distinction; our immediate worries about friendly nuke development in Iran are tempered by a determination of the level of vicious intention Achmy (my short for Ahmadinejad) has vs. his neighbors. And consider the yin/yang: lots of international finance buzz going around that, amazingly, Iran can't satisfy its own energy needs through its own oil production (for some convoluted financial reason), thus having to turn to nukes as a cost-effective alternative. Now the degree to which that is true bears directly on how we interpret his other rhetoric. Achmy still has a country to run.

Sounds like someone needs to read Strategy of Conflict from that economist in a neighboring state. A quick jaunt on the metro or 495 and he can even speak to him in person!

Just some thoughts to push the discussion along:

The leader I had uppermost in my mind was not Hitler or Ahmadenijad, but Bin Laden. He openly declared war on the U.S., and in retrospect we should have done more about it.

Those of you who say that we should not take leaders at their word and instead try to assess their true intention should think that through carefully. To me, that puts an impossible burden on our intelligence operations. Or, to put it another way, it puts the CIA in the driver's seat on foreign policy, which is something you might want to think twice about doing.

Instead, if we articulate to foreign leaders, "We are going to assume that your words indicate your intentions," that puts pressure on them to use words precisely. I think putting that sort of pressure on them would be a good thing.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/21/AR2006092100829.html

Transcript
President Ahmadinejad's News Conference

CQ Transcripts Wire
Thursday, September 21, 2006

'Throughout our history, our country has not taken away the rights of any other country, has not initiated war against any other country, has not been an aggressor, has had no territorial claims over other countries. . . . And so when we speak of Palestine, it's because we don't want to see war there. . . . So our proposals on Palestine are quite clear. We have proposed a referendum. . . . No, I'm not anti-Jew. Jews are respected by everyone like all human beings. And I respect them very much. . . . Let us remember that in Palestine there are Muslims, Christians and Jews who live together. We speak of the Palestinian nation, of a people all in all embracing everyone. I never have said the Muslims in Palestine alone should decide about their fate.'

'The bottom line is, we do not need a bomb, unlike what others think. . . . They have to spend so much money destroying them. If the nuclear bomb could have saved anyone, it would have prevented the collapse of the Soviet Union. If the nuclear bomb could have created security, it would have prevented, perhaps, September 11th. If the nuclear bomb could have done anything, it could have, perhaps, stopped the Palestinian intifada.'

Warren:

In the case of the Iranian nuclear threats . . .

Please cite one of these threats.

Nuclear holocaust is not to be taken lightly.

I sense a Mel Brooks musical a-coming.

Not Mel Brooks...

We will all go together when we go,
All suffused with an incandescent glow,
No one will have the endurance
To collect on their insurance
Lloyds of London will be loaded when they go!

We will all burn together when we burn,
There'll be no need to stand and wait your turn,
When it's time for the fallout
And St Peter calls us all out
We'll just drop our agendas and adjourn!

or...

So long, Mom,
I'm off to drop the Bomb,
So don't wait up for me,
While you sit there and swelter
Down there in your shelter
You can see me
On your TV...
So, so long, Mommie,
I'm off to kill a Commie,
So send me a salami,
And try to smile somehow;
I'll see you again when the war is over,
An hour and a half from now.

Don't forget the cheery holiday tune, 'It's Christmas at Ground Zero'.

In response to a well thought-out post by Arnold Kling: Yes, there is merit in asking foreign leaders to hew to a more carefully crafted rhetoric so we can assume that "your words indicate your intentions." And this may well give State the upper hand vs. CIA as you mentioned. But let me advocate the opposing view: Does this mean that foreign leaders will stop trying to confabulate? Does this eliminate the requirement to parse their words carefully? Or obviate the need for good intelligence gathering? We have a serious lack of human intel, most obviously in Iran. And CIA-led misadventures notwithstanding, what is the argument against an intelligence-driven foreign policy?

All right, Arnold, I WILL give you an example. Let's say George Bush says "If Iran doesn't get its operatives out of Iraq, there'll be grave consequences." What is he talking about? Is he saber rattling? Is he warning of military deployment along the Iran-Iraq border? Is he going to drop a bomb on Tehran? Does he want to give his Republican hawks in Congress the upper hand when a non-binding resolution comes up for a vote? Has he no other rational public face to put on, in light of news of Iranian operatives' presence in his battlefield?

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