Damn You!

This is pretty sweet. Stephen H. Miller on the Independent Gay Forum denounces the Human Rights Campaign for refusing to endorse Rudy Giuliani in the GOP primary even though . . . they haven't actually done that. He's just so sure they will that he's decided to issue a pre-emptive denunciation.

The real issue is whether the Giuliani camp would even want HRC's endorsement. Presumably, he's going to spend the next year running as far away from his pro-gay record as possible, which would probably preclude seriously courting the leadership of a major gay rights organization or endorsing their legislative agenda.

2/18/07 5:15PM del.icio.us this incoming links

Comments

McCain must be praying for HRC to endorse Giuliani.

Posted by: aleks on February 18, 2007 06:06 PM

If HRC wants to really sink Giuliani in either the primary or the general, wouldn't it run as many commercials as possible saying "We Heart Giuliani?" They could even show the video of him in drag getting felt up by Trump. Now if only Trump runs on the Reform Party ticket, we can have a fun election on our hands.

Posted by: Reality Man on February 18, 2007 06:09 PM

For a second I thought you meant Hillary Rodham Clinton when you wrote HRC. And I thought, of course Giuliani wouldn't want Clinton's endorsement.

Then I thought, how awesome would it be if the Clinton campaign endorsed Giuliani in the Republican primary because he was the only "fellow New York liberal" running for President. Of course this would be a pretty transarent act of political maunevering against one of the stronger Republican candidates and Clinton would never refer to herself as a "liberal" but I'd still get a kick out of it.

Posted by: Eric the Political Hack on February 18, 2007 06:39 PM

Betchya a lot of people are going to be reading this soon-to-be-if-not-already famous piece about Rudy crashing at the apartment belonging to his gay buddies. Sorry it's select.

http://select.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F70E10FB38580C778CDDA10894D9404482&n=Top%2fOpinion%2fEditorials%20and%20Op%2dEd%2fOp%2dEd%2fColumnists%2fFrank%20Rich

Posted by: david mizner on February 18, 2007 06:46 PM

On the morning of 9/11 Rudy woke up in the apartment of his two gay friends. Rudy was staying there because him and his first wife were splitting up and he needed a place to crash, she threw him out of the gov's mansion.

Posted by: jbou on February 18, 2007 06:51 PM

Hey, McCain's already got the guy who can write the "Call me, Rudy!" commercial.

Posted by: norbizness on February 18, 2007 07:10 PM

Obviously it's the case that some fresh, hip younger voices from the gay community (none of whom you'll note are just middlebrow hacks poking at straw men) - an independent gay forum if you will - are needed to balance the richly funded constellation of wacko leftist homosexual organizations, media empires, and think tanks dotting the landscape which are more or less responsible (as opposed to entrenched homophobia from like the beginning of time) for sullying the good name of Real Gays everywhere, and not just stymying but actually retarding the progress of civil equality (which obviously the Republicans are doing a better job of advancing).

Posted by: Linus on February 18, 2007 07:19 PM

What's the deal with the IGF? Are they right-wing welfare? That's what "independent" is usually code for, in organizations like that. It's probably much safer to say that the IGF consciously serves the interests of the GOP than that HRC are Democratic shills.

Posted by: Elvis Elvisberg on February 18, 2007 07:42 PM

You know who's gotta shot at the GOP nod? Hagel, who all but announced he was running today when he was bragging about his support for Bush's policies--he's the number one Bush supporter in the Senate, according to CQ. The war's unpopularity, the inevitable fanwing coverage, his political skills, and his conservative positions on social issues will make him a factor. Plus all the other candidates suck.

Posted by: david mizner on February 18, 2007 07:53 PM

No way, david mizner. Hagel is as held in as low regard as McCain. And he doesn't have much of an organization in place.

I think that Giuliani has zero chance of making it through. McCain has hired some real bruising campaigners, and they're not going to let Giuliani's free pass continue. His reputation was made on his response to 9/11, and he's never had to answer tough questions about NYC's preparedness-- see Hamilton and Kean's book on running the 9/11 Commission.

Now, instead of hard questions, he'll get slimed like McCain did in South Carolina in 2000, by some of the same people who did the last sliming. There'll be NYPD and NYFD guys on Fox News and at rallies railing about being betrayed by Giuliani.

And I haven't even gotten to the cousin-marrying, divorcing, appearances in drag, palling around with sodomites, etc.

Posted by: Elvis Elvisberg on February 18, 2007 08:03 PM

"The real issue is whether the Giuliani camp would even want HRC's endorsement."

I don't expect Hillary to endorse anyone in the Republican primaries.

Posted by: Petey on February 18, 2007 08:15 PM

"You know who's gotta shot at the GOP nod? Hagel"

Hagel : '08 GOP nomination :: Lieberman : '04 Dem nomination.

Posted by: Petey on February 18, 2007 08:18 PM

"I think that Giuliani has zero chance of making it through. McCain has hired some real bruising campaigners, and they're not going to let Giuliani's free pass continue."

It's definitely McCain's race to lose, but I wouldn't say Giuliani has zero chance. It's all about the war™.

Just as the war made a centrist DLC governor the darling of lefty activists in '04, the war may make a centrist mayor the darling of righty activists in '08. I've got money on McCain, but I do think Giuliani has a shot.

Posted by: Petey on February 18, 2007 08:22 PM

I'm not sure why anyone would say Rudy has "zero" chance of getting through. After all, he's leading the polls today. Of course, today is not a year from now. But it's hard to say that the current front-runner has "zero" chance.

Posted by: Al on February 18, 2007 08:24 PM

You know who's gotta shot at the GOP nod? Hagel

I don't think Hagel has much chances. I mean, does anyone in the GOP actually like him? I can't see very many. And many, many despise him with a passion (including me - if Hagel were the GOP nominee, I would support any Democrat running against him... including Kucinich).

Posted by: Al on February 18, 2007 08:27 PM

"I'm not sure why anyone would say Rudy has "zero" chance of getting through. "

Because his views on social issues are to the left of a significant portion of Senate Democrats.

As stated above, I agree with you that his chances are significantly above zero, but his social views are the rationale why many write off his chances.

Petey's Fair Value for the GOP nomination:

50% McCain
20% Giuliani
15% Romney
15% Field

Posted by: Petey on February 18, 2007 08:34 PM

Al, many of us discount McCain and Giuliani because we have no means by which to under stand a good part of your party. For all I know, Giuliani's doomed because his name is an anagram of the secret name of Satan. Or maybe someone in South Carolina will gut a dog, and the way the entrails splatter will mean that a vote for McCain is a vote for death. Maybe they'll love both of them, and demand not only that they run on a ticket together, but that they splice their genes together to create the perfect dictator.

There are obviously various theories, espoused even by Republicans, but I have no faith in any of our abilities to guess was the Southern Republicans will do.

Posted by: SomeCallMeTim on February 18, 2007 08:38 PM

I see your point, Al. "Zero" probably looks like a bit of hyperbole. But I'm sticking with it. Zero chance for Giuliani.

Rudy's vulnerabilities-- EVEN IF he didn't have the liberal record on social issues-- are such that he cannot survive the savagery of a GOP primary.

Here's a National Review article that gives some insight; it doesn't mention his vulnerabilities on the issue of decisions made prior to 9/11, or the fact that cities like Boston yielded similar results in reducing crime without the bluster and acrimony that marked the Giuliani approach. Highlight:

Most Americans love Rudy, but it’s not just because they don’t know where he stands on issues. It’s also because they know nothing of his pre-9/11 self, and the more they learn, the less attractive they will probably find him. By September 10, 2001, New Yorkers were weary of their mayor and longed for an end to his administration, even as they enjoyed the dog-poop-less sidewalks, the safe subway platforms, the squeegee-free street corners and the low murder rate they all knew he had brought about. It understates the case to say that a massive terror attack saved Giuliani’s political career — it would be more accurate to say that nothing short of 9/11 could have saved it.

Posted by: Elvis Elvisberg on February 18, 2007 09:35 PM

Giuliani's support for gay rights basically consists of the NYC domestic partnership law, which certainly is important to a lot of people. But he's already shown that he'll ditch liberal principles to pander to conservative groups, when he defended the right of the St. Patrick's Day parade organizers to ban the gay contingent, and continued to take a place of honor in the parade himself.

Posted by: Hob on February 18, 2007 09:57 PM

Al - care to explain the Hagel hatred? Just curious why.

Personally, I would probably vote for Clinton over any other Republican, even though it would hurt me to do it.

Posted by: MDtoMN on February 18, 2007 10:23 PM

I would vote Hagel over HRC..

Posted by: Ed Marshall on February 18, 2007 11:18 PM

Petey, you forgot Newt--he's gotta be in there somewhere.

And for those of you who think Hagel has no shot, remember how unpopular the war is. If he could take two third of the GOP voters who are opposed to the war, he'd stick around. Then at some point GOP voters might look up and realize there's an electable candidate who's pretty damn conservative. And some of the vitriol he'll get from the hard right will be offset by the MSM's love for him. Oh, and remember New Hampshire, a place that will like him.

Posted by: david mizner on February 18, 2007 11:20 PM

Rudy was staying there because him and his first wife were splitting up and he needed a place to crash, she threw him out of the gov's mansion.

IIRC, it wasn't so much that his wife threw him out as it was that Giuliani refused to go home because a judge had ruled Rudy's girlfriend couldn't sleep over at Gracie while his WIFE AND KIDS were there.

Yep, Rudy ditched his kids and went to live with his gay buddies because his girlfriend couldn't sleep over in the same house with his wife and kids anymore.

And on a hilarious aside, who knew Rudy was impotent? I swear to God, Time Magazine reported it.

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,127260,00.html

Posted by: anonymous on February 18, 2007 11:30 PM

"Petey, you forgot Newt--he's gotta be in there somewhere."

Newt and Hagel are both part of my 15% field percentage, which is quite a high number - I'd put the Dem field percentage beyond The Big Three as only 5%. But I think both Huckabee and Brownback have a better shot than Hagel or Gingrich. Newt (if he runs) is a protest candidate, not a viable nominee.

-----

"Al - care to explain the Hagel hatred? Just curious why."

I'm not Al, but the parallels between Hagel '08 and Lieberman '04 really are quite strong. Hagel is every Democrat's favorite Republican. That's not exactly the best way to win a nomination.

Posted by: Petey on February 18, 2007 11:30 PM

"Hagel is every Democrat's favorite Republican. That's not exactly the best way to win a nomination."

True, although Hagel, unlike Joe, is a good candidate.

My farfetched scenario derives mostly from worry since I think he's the one Republican who could win, and it's not promising to be seen as an opponent of the leader of your own party, but there's a not-small silent minority of GOP voters who hate the war and are sick of Bush. With all the other candidates running right and praising Bush and embracing the war, he could cobble together a coalition of disaffected Republicans, pragmatists and Perotistas. And national polls will show him running stronger against leading Dems than anyone else except maybe Rudy, a moderate. If the GOP electorate splits three or four ways and the primary stretches out. Like I said, farfetched.

Posted by: david mizner on February 18, 2007 11:49 PM

"And on a hilarious aside, who knew Rudy was impotent? I swear to God, Time Magazine reported it."

Oh my god, that explains way too much. Did a ferret bite it off?

Posted by: Reality Man on February 19, 2007 12:25 AM

"I would vote Hagel over HRC.."

Why am I unsurprised to see Ed Marshall supporting Republicans?

Posted by: Petey on February 19, 2007 08:07 AM

"My farfetched scenario derives mostly from worry since I think he's the one Republican who could win"

You should be worrying about much less farfetched scenarios. I think both Giuliani and McCain would be stronger general election candidates than Hagel, and I think both them not only can win, but have a better than 50/50 shot at beating our most likely nominee - the Senator from New York.

Just because the (R) ballot line was poison in 2006 with an electorate eager to punish Bush shouldn't lead folks to believe it will be poison in 2008 with a more popular figure at the top of the ballot. And more broadly, the '08 general election politics of the war aren't quite what you think they are.

Posted by: Petey on February 19, 2007 08:12 AM

I think we stand a better chance against Guiliani than McCain. I see the biggest liability of the top three Democratic candidates being a general lack of experience. Guiliani can't take advantage of that idea. McCain, on the other hand, not only has military experience, but will be able to turn attack ads into discussions about McCain-Feingold and the major bipartisan legislation he was able to get passed.

The use of the incompetence dodge may just convince the electorate that this is not the time to gamble on someone who is unproven.

Posted by: Just Karl on February 19, 2007 09:41 AM

Al - care to explain the Hagel hatred? Just curious why.

It's the betrayal. And the way he betrays us in the most sanctimonious manner. As I commented earlier, I don't think he's an especially conservative Senator. But even if he was, I couldn't abide by the betrayal.

Posted by: Al on February 19, 2007 11:05 AM

And for those of you who think Hagel has no shot, remember how unpopular the war is. If he could take two third of the GOP voters who are opposed to the war, he'd stick around.

How many GOP voters are actually opposed to the war? And how many GOP voters would never support an antiwar GOP nominee? I bet the latter outnumbers the former.

Posted by: Al on February 19, 2007 11:10 AM

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