Helicopters

Josh Marshall points out something I hadn't noticed -- there's been a big uptick in American helicopter crashes recently. It appears, however, that this is a result of better tactics and/or intelligence rather than the acquisition of better weapons.

This brings to mind one of the bitter ironies of the president's recent allegations that Iran is arming our foes in Iraq. The allegation appears, for one thing, to be significantly overstated, raising one's concerns that it's part of a propaganda campaign leading to war. At the same time, however, no matter what proportion of weapons in Iraq come from Iran, it's fairly clear that until very recently at least neither the Sunni insurgents nor the Mahdi Army nor the Badr Organization was an especially well-armed outfit. Compare any of them to an irregular fighting organization that Iran most definitely does equip like Hezbollah's military wing and you'll see that everyone in Iraq is looking rather crude. There's a lot more the Iranians could be handing out in terms of anti-tank missiles, rockets of various kinds, etc. This helicopter business is bad enough allready, but could easily become much worse if the administration continues its efforts to widen the war.

2/8/07 7:47AM del.icio.us this incoming links

Comments

All too true, Matt. That's one of the great sadnesses of a lot of the assessments about attacking Iran, people simply do not take what occurred in the Lebanon seriously. The blowback in Iraq has the potential to be really ugly.

Posted by: Meh on February 8, 2007 07:59 AM

"This brings to mind one of the bitter ironies of the president's recent allegations that Iran is arming our foes in Iraq. "

One of the really bizarre assertions is that Iran is giving Iraqis bomb-making expertise and equipment. First, it is the Sunnis who are making wide-spread use of large explosives. Second, there were news stories of the looting of massive amounts of explosives throughout Iraq after the invasion. Third, the most effective units in the Iraqi army in the Iran-Iraq war were the combat engineers. They made wide use of remotely detonated mines to maximize the carnage against Iranian human-wave attacks.

Posted by: Njorl on February 8, 2007 09:09 AM

I've been going on about this for over 3 years now.

The conventional wisdom is the Soviets were driven out of Afghanistan as a result of somebody shipping Stingers to the insurgency.

If someone wanted to cost us a ton of money they can do so by shipping ManPADS to the insurgents. Once dominance of the airways is gone, you're pretty much at the mercy of the natives. And they don't look terribly fond of us.

Posted by: Chris on February 8, 2007 09:18 AM

The second point is a reason *for* the propaganda - this is probably the first guerrilla movement in history to have more ammo than they know what to do with. Securing those ammunition depots would have kept a few thousands of tons of ammunition from the guerrillas.

Posted by: Barry on February 8, 2007 09:28 AM

Or, the militias could be getting better arms and training as the US continues to arm and train the "Iraqi Army."

Posted by: Colorado Luis on February 8, 2007 09:30 AM

This brings to mind one of the bitter ironies of the president's recent allegations that Iran is arming our foes in Iraq.

another funny thing about the "iran is arming the insurgents" charge is that they always seem to forget what the "I" stands for in "IED." if a foreign power is supplying the explosives, then the explosives wouldn't be improvised.

Posted by: upyernoz on February 8, 2007 09:43 AM

I've wondered if Iran has shipped small amounts of the good stuff over to Iraq, with the plan to break them out and show the US just how bad things can really get if we get too in their face (or airspace).

Posted by: daveNYC on February 8, 2007 09:59 AM

I wonder if there is an increase in reliance on helicopters associated with the "surge." Does anyone know? While I am not discounting the uptick in American helicopter crashes is the result of better intel and/or tactics and/or better weapons, I wonder if there is also an increase in targets.

Posted by: Dungheap on February 8, 2007 10:00 AM

In Neil Sheehan's A Bright And Shining Lie there is a bit about how early in the war the North Vietnamese forces couldn't hit a helicopter to save their lives. But, as John Paul Vann learned, if you get to shoot at them all the time you will eventually learn how to lead them correctly and you will start knocking them down. I think that's what's happenning here.

Posted by: Sarcastro on February 8, 2007 10:15 AM

Don't forget that Rumsfeld's failure to secure the massive ammunition dumps supplied the insurgency with most of its IED and car bomb explosives. This was reported early on by US military commanders in Iraq and those munitions are still killing Americans and Iraqis.

Posted by: GPS on February 8, 2007 10:15 AM

Iran is shipping arms to the Iran-hating Sunni insurgents? and we're propping up the Iran-allied Shia?

It seems like it ought to be real easy to broker a peace. Just point out that every one is behaving real wacky.

Posted by: Jeffrey Davis on February 8, 2007 10:16 AM

Iran has nothing to do with this! Where do you guys get your information, the MSM?!?
If it's sunni's shooting down our helicopters, its Saudi Arabia that is suppling the money.
And there IS evidence of new shoulder fire anti aircraft weapons in the area, so, why this quote "It appears, however, that this is a result of better tactics and/or intelligence rather than the acquisition of better weapons." ??

Posted by: Rick on February 8, 2007 10:52 AM

Surely Bushco knows that any attempt to move against Shite militia strongholds in Sadr City or Suburban Baghdad means that all gloves are off. How could the Iranians not supply their Shite brothers with their best weapons.

Perhaps our M1 Abrams tanks could run free for maybe a week or two tops. Then surely Iran would step in and supply the Shite militia with the sophisticated reverse engineered American TOWs and a vast array Soviet anti-tank/anti-armor knockoffs. The same weaponry that made the Israelis cry uncle in Southern Lebanon and left their tanks which were much better designed for urban warfare in ruins.

Up till now the only way for Iraqis Sunni or Shite to knock out the Abrams tanks has been with remote anti-tank mines. That could change overnight.

Oh, yeah under Bushco there have been repeated attempts to decomission the A10, our most reliable, if not only, means of continuous close air support.

Is it great know that with our transport Blackhawk and other transport helicopters under increasing attack, our attack helicopters proven to be
useless and highly vulnerable, that the next time when the shit really hits the fan there will be fewer options to come to the rescue of embattled US forces.

Posted by: llamajockey on February 8, 2007 11:13 AM

With apologies for blogwhoring, this has been an issue for weeks: http://americablog.blogspot.com/2007/02/more-on-helicopter-problems-in-iraq.html

Posted by: AJ in DC on February 8, 2007 12:12 PM

An eyewitness to one of the last shootdowns mentioned the sound of a missile. The Baker-Hamilton Report noted fundraising in Saudi Arabia to get shoulder-fired missiles to insurgents. These shootdowns are happening in Sunni-held areas. Can't anybody see what's going on? Right: attack Iran.

Posted by: Jim M on February 8, 2007 12:21 PM

Even if Iran is supplying the insurgents, the US is by far their main supplier. Through the Iraqi army and police force, we're supplying the insurgents with weapons, training, uniforms, and other equipment. We're their main source. Clearly, the only sane response is to declare war on ourselves.

Posted by: Doug Singsen on February 8, 2007 03:31 PM

"The same weaponry that made the Israelis cry uncle in Southern Lebanon and left their tanks which were much better designed for urban warfare in ruins. "

The Israeli tanks are "better" by virtue of their lightness, maneuverability, fuel economy and capacity to carry troops inside them. None of those features aides in survivability. The Israeli tanks are not remotely comparable to the M1 in that regard. The TOW missile does not have the penetration ability to destroy an M1 unless fired straight down at the front of the tank from an elevation of around 100 meters, which isn't very likely. It could damage one in more realistic circumstances, but not destroy it.

Still, the M1 is not the ideal means to win "hearts and minds", and, there is always a way to destroy anything. I don't see what we'd accomplish chasing Shiite militias around Baghdad in our tanks. I'm sure we could blow up many buildings in the poorest sections of town, to no useful purpose.

Posted by: Njorl on February 8, 2007 03:35 PM

All the helicopters went down in Anbar province or other Sunni insurgency areas, so it's unlikely the weaponry came from Shia Iran. That's why the Bush Administration hasn't tried to use these helicopter incidents as an excuse to widen the conflict to Iran.

Posted by: Paul on February 8, 2007 06:30 PM

The ex post facto crime of Iran arming Iraqi militias

SCIRI and Dawa spent the Saddam years exiled in Iran, and their militias undoubtedly have plenty of Iran-supplied arms left over from those days when they were the leading anti-Saddam resistance groups. This will not stop the administration from claiming that Iran arms anti-US militias once we pick a fight with the Badr brigades, and our troops start getting killed with their undoubtedly Iranian-supplied weapons. From there it will be only a short step to bombing insurgency "sanctuaries" on the Iranian side of the border. It's apparently the administration's new tactic for getting us into war with Iran. Perhaps the generals balked at a direct attack using the Iranian nuke program as the excuse, at least without getting a new AUMF, so this gradualistic approach is the administration's plan B.

Posted by: Glen Tomkins on February 8, 2007 10:57 PM

Why does Bush want to be the first President to lose 3 wars at the same day? Is he crazy or just making money off these wars?

Posted by: merlallen on February 9, 2007 03:19 AM

Posted by: youtube on September 15, 2007 02:28 PM

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