Fred Thompson

Fred looks like he has the best shot at navigating the GOP primaries to me as well.

I also think he has a chance in the general, perhaps a reflection of my diminished view of the American electorate.

Exactly. Thompson is George Allen with 50 more IQ points and greater name ID--a satisfying confection for the base of the GOP, but, in post-Bush America, unlikely to win a general election.

I agree he'd be significantly better than Giuliani. Unclear to me how he'd compare to McCain or Romney. My rough sense of preference would be: Romney, Thompson, McCain, Giuliani, but that's only because McCain's like 800 years old.

My suspicion is that Mitt would be worst: no natural base means that he has to accept more Southern Republican influence. Rudy and McCain seem to have their own supporters, rather than simply Republican supporters who prefer them.

But he's not even a Christian!

Thompson hasn't a snowball's chance. It's easy, one year before the primaries, to be unduly influenced by the flurries of attention candidates receive, one by one, from a media seeking to keep their coverage fresh. And one can see why Thompson is, ideally speaking, an attractive to a significant portion of the base.

But he's marginal, and will be treated as such by a media that, when the season really begins, will lavish all its attentions on the Big Three. And his actual campaign operation will be sorely underfunded, particularly in comparison to the Guilianis and McCains. He simply can't compete, and if a decent percentage of Republicans do prefer him, as they once might have preferred Bauer or Keyes, they'll nevertheless be persuaded to hold their nose and vote for the "winner", just as Democrats usually do during our campaign season.

You really think Giuliani would be worse than McCain? I don't see how they wouldn't be equally bad on the points they'd be bad on, and I can at least point to some areas where Giuliani would probably do pretty well.

Giuliani will win the nomination, but I would approve of a hilarious Thompson run. If he does become the favorite, the Dems should nominate an inanimate carbon rod and then watch it trounce the guy.

I do think that Giuliani would be worse than McCain. It's a combination of his fundamental bullying, authoritarian impulses combined with his zeal-of-a-convert attitudes on social issues. Giuliani is, frankly, just scary. He seems to possess most of Bush's bad qualities, minus the stupidity, plus a healthy dose of obduracy.

McCain, however much his star has fallen, still seems to me to be animated by some sense of principle. This might be pretty thin gruel, but there does seem to be a real difference between him and Giuliani.

Fred Thompson exposes how week Rudy's support really is. Beyond that small observation, I can't wrap my mind around anybody in the Republian field right now.

McCain: Possibly terrible, probably somewhat less terrible than Bush.

Giuliani: Definitely terrible, possible a whole new level of terrible that most people can't imagine.

Fred Thompson: ????

I think McCain is in some ways similar to Gore, in that he's kind of gotten bent out of shape in positioning himself for the nomination since 2000, so looks much worse as a candidate than he would actually be as a President. He has some really admirable principles that I think have been obscured by his toeing the party line for so long.

Giuliani: no admirable principles that I'm aware of.

Like Jack Kemp, Thompson only looks good until he actually jumps in. Also, like other perennial media darlings like Bill Bradley and Bob Kerrey, Thompson seems to me fatally afflicted with hauteur, or a sense of entitlement. He will come to resent having to implore people to vote for him, and will think that showing up should suffice.

Worse than President Giuliani would be Vice President Giuliani. I mean, during Rudy's short tenure as Veep, some innocent foreign dignitary might inadvertantly get the poisoned paté.

Actually, I think the appeal of McCain to many in the GOP establishment at the outset of the 2008 campaign season was the fact that he was 127 years old and not in great health. You force him to take on a adherent to the True Faith as VP and just wait him out. Unfortunately for them, McCain has had to make a lot of moves to secure the nomination that have damaged his chances in the general.

One last thought: Matt's line on Thompson--that he's a generic conservative but potentially less harmful than other in the field--seems eerily close to the line on G.W. Bush in 2000.

He's not going to be the nominee, because Dobson has announced that he's not a Christian.

Now, why Dobson thinks any of the other potential nominees are Christians is a mystery--but there you have it.

This McCain/Giuliani point is just bizarre. McCain was the preferred candidate of the Bill Kristol set in 2000, remember. He's a belligerent imperialist with a decades-long record of being one. He also has passed laws restricting the First Amendment, etc. He's something close to a fascist. Even if that's how you characterize Giuliani there's no case to be made for McCain being in any meaningful way less fascistic that isn't based on Giuliani being an asshole and McCain seeming like a nice guy.

See Brad Plummer on most of this--they are all base-line terrible because they are structurally beholden to a Party composed of crony capitalists, reflexive militarists, and theocratic crackpots. Thompson, as a metronomic, ur embodiment of that Party, will be correspondingly terrible. I'll grant that candidates with particular tempermental and/or intellectual deficiencies, e.g. Giuliani and Bush, can move the baseline in an ever more frightening direction.

He has some really admirable principles that I think have been obscured by his toeing the party line for so long.

Such as?

McCain has a reputation among Democrats for being principled, because for a while he saw sucking up to Democrats on a few issues as expedient; It got him a lot of positive press, and it looked for a while like he might be able to take the 2000 nomination with Democratic crosssover votes.

Now that sucking up to you is no longer expedient, he's stopped doing it, and you think he's lost his principles. Nope, never had 'em. You just have a hard time distinguishing agreeing with you from having principles.

McCain and Guliani frighten me; They're both seriously agressive authoritarian types, with nasty tempers. Guliani would set out to turn the country into a police state, and McCain would probably be trying to figure out how to implant V chips in everybody's vocal cords by the end of a second term, he's so hostile to freedom of speech.

He will come to resent having to implore people to vote for him, and will think that showing up should suffice.

It's the GOP. Showing up is pretty much all he needs to do. See Bush, 2000. Or Dole, 1996. Or Bush, 1988. And so on.

Matt sez: Giuliani: Definitely terrible, possible a whole new level of terrible that most people can't imagine.

My imagination, like many others', has really gotten to the point where it can accept almost anything. Bush is like a personal trainer for your paranoia.

McCain has principles. He worships the state and state power. He thinks the state should impose its will on other states in the name of martial honor. He thinks citizens should be legally compelled to serve the state and legally forbidden from spending money to express their opinions on its doings. He's not coy about anything like this.

Any Republican President will be corrupt, power-hungry, violate the Constitution in numerous ways, and do stupid things like invade Iraq(n) internationally. That's just what Republicans are and do. So the only real difference in the field is style. I'd rather have Guiliani if we have to have another Republican President because at least there won't be any illusions about his motivations unlike if we have a genial actor like Thompson who would be able to con the less politically involved parts of the electorate with his.

Can someone please explain to me why Guiliani would be worse than McCain? Or anyone else on offer? Brownback seems infinitely worse, as does Gingrich. The only one who seems better is Huckabee. I think MY's picking the devil you don't know.

What guy said: it's kind of nice to reflect on the fact that McCain is animated by principles - and I'm happy to believe with Matt's assessment that this is the case - but in this case a number of the relevant principles are very dangerous. McCain seems to genuinely and passionately believe in militarism, and there has been quite enough of that already . If one must pick a GOP candidate I'd prefer an aimless opportunist with some sense of limits - Romney seems to qualify quite nicely.

I'm inclined to agree with MY that Giuliani would be just about the worst winner.

Romney, if he managed to become president, would come in with a really weak mandate over a likely still-Democratic Congress. He isn't deeply tied to the war. His so-con bona fides would be decent enough that he wouldn't have to jump through a lot of hoops proving them, and besides, he wouldn't be writing legislation. He has a record of at least modest conciliatory moves as an executive with a Democratic legislature. All this is despite the fact that he'd be eminently beatable.

Giuliani is another can of worms entirely. Unless there's a serious Brownback-type third party candidacy, Giuliani would be really tough to beat, as his ostensible blue-state-iness would work to his benefit. He might even have Congressional coattails. His social-issues status is problematic for the base, so the way he's made it up them is by toeing their line on war-on-terror issues and judicial nominations. He'd have a stronger incentive than Romney to push very hard to prove these things. Besides all that, he's a straight-up authoritarian without a conciliatory instinct; he's combative for its own sake and eager to consolidate power around himself. In short, in exchange for being ostensibly pro-choice, we'd have a President with megalomaniacal instincts, a deep hawkish streak, and a strong incentive to prove himself conservative enough to get re-nominated.

McCain is somewhere in between - less scary and more beatable than Giuliani, less beatable than Romney. Thompson, eh, I haven't thought through his existence enough, but I think he'd fall pretty much where McCain does.

"My first instinct was to laugh, but when you think about it he's going to be the Republican nominee. He's precisely the generic conservative Republican the GOP base is looking for."

This is precisely why Rudy "kewl mayor type" Giuliani has a double-digit lead in the polls.

The only enduring question on my mind about the chronically wrong conventional wisdom of the liberal blogs is whether these people actually believe what they're saying or they're simply cynical propagangists peddling a certain fiction to extract a few nickels and dimes from their True Believing readership and prove their loyalty to the Democratic Party for the sake of their own careers down the line.

But what is sad to me is that a decade or a decade and a half from now - after President Rudy has forever altered the landscape of civil liberties for the worse (like FDR and Lincoln before him) and Barack (no longer such a fresh face) Obama finally becomes president, after Markos gets to be chair of the DNC and many of these loyal Democratic bloggers get sweet gigs in the newly, openly partisan MSM - the American poor will still be poor, American prisons will still be overflowing, and this country will be even less of a republic and more of an empire than it is today no matter even if Mr. Obama's presidency is marked by the pretense of isolationism.

I don't expect or deserve anyone's sympathy, but those who believed the bull crap they read on these things, and were sold out hoping for an America they knew before but less unkind will get mine.

There is nothing to say about Fred other than for the last six years while the GOP has taken it from everyside..he has been out in Hollywood "play acting" politics and banging some broad thats young enough to be his daughter.

He wont ever get my vote.

Fred Thompson = CHINO (christian in name only)

Thompson definitely fits the "generic conservative mold." In my guess-timation his candidacy would most likely cripple Romney's thin hopes and take a considerable chunk of Giuliani's putative supporters, who are currently supporting him as the least bad option. The main beneficiary could be McCain.

If Thompson runs, how will the primary voters react to his Hollywood trophy wife? This guy looks like Hef in the picture below:

http://www.cbsnews.com/elements/2006/05/01/in_depth_showbiz/photoessay1562186_0_6_photo.shtml

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/sleuth/2007/03/rove_raps_at_radiotv_follies.html

Where the hell has he been for the last six years while the GOP has taken it from all sides? Ohhh thats right...hes been out in Hollywood with his wife young enough to be his daughter attending uber liberal hollywood elitist parties with those that have waged a viscious war against the very party he now wants a nomination from!!!

Meanwhile all the others wanting the nomination have been right there in the trenches with us fighting the good fight! But not Fred...no...he was too busy attending Oscar parties and play acting on television to be bothered with it all!

Get real. I will not vote for him.

Fred is a salty old dog who because of his movie and TV credits (playing Establishment men of rectitude) is going to go a long way. His candidacy puts a big crimp in the "big 3". The young wife will not be a hindrance.

" because of his movie and TV credits ...is going to go a long way. "

This is the stupidist argument I have ever heard in my life!

Trevor: The young wife will not be a hindrance.

Normally I'd agree with you, but that pic is creepy, it looks like Skelator and his granddaughter.

Picking the "worst" among these for liberals is not an easy, or exact, task. Nonetheless, Giuliani is by far the scariest to me. I am confident that democracy (assuming it survives Bush) will not survive Giuliani (absent some dramatic showdown, probably impeachment). It might survive the others. This is not an uncommon opinion among liberals. Think we're shrill? They called us shrill in 2001 and 2002 also.

She looks more age-appropriate in other pictures. (for example)

Anyone who knows anything about Fred Thompson knows that he's an old horndog. Even when he was "young" (40's) he was an old horndog fucking young fine Country-Western back-up singers. It didn't look good to be seen with Fred 20 years ago- it doesn't look good now. It would help a lot if he had a good head of hair or weren't so damn unprepossessing. But, I think allowances are made when you're in show business. Somehow, the public (I believe) is more forgiving of horndoggery than if you're just a plain old Senator or Governor.

And yes- his movie and TV career is a boost for him. Does anybody think it hurt Reagan, Sonny Bono, "Gopher", and a ton of others. This is America- if you were a sports star or a successful entertainer- you can get elected to high office with no experience. Look at Bill Bradley in Jersey. Schwartzenegger here in California. People are bowled over by stars. And, in Middle America- Fred Thompson is a star. He's got a big leg up.

Fred Thompson is the Republicans' best hope, and against the current Democratic field, he looks kind of scary to me.

He's tall and distinguished-looking, and he has a charming, euphonious way of speaking. He has spent the past several years beaming images of himself as a wise, tough, experienced leader into every American teevee.

He has mad political chops (and connections). Don't forget that before his election to the Senate (to fill Al Gore's unexpired term!) he had been a US Attorney, Howard Baker's campaign manager, a chief counsel to the Senate Watergate Committee, and he did nearly two decades as a lobbyist for the likes of Westinghouse and GE.

While he was IN the senate, he was in charge of investigations of (not jism-stained laundry, but) both Clinton AND GOP CAMPAIGN FINANCE VIOLATIONS. In those days, he was regularly presented on the Sunday shows as the voice of moderation and reason in turbulent, sadly partisan times. A real statesman, and all that crapola.

All that, and the possibility of the first babelicious first lady since Jackie?

Be afraid. Be very.

I agree 100%. And, he's able to hide his cold, obtuse, hidebound right-reactionary views behind his movie/TV persona of a venerable statesman/uber-responsible Govt. official. If he gets any traction and money- he will be tough to beat. Hillary wouldn't have a prayer. I think he'd thrash Edwards too.

Ever notice how republicans hate actors and Hollywood until they can dig up an actor to run for office.

Fred Thompson comes across too much like the other actor who plays the hardass VP on 24. He is certainly more articulate than President Bush, but the same is true of all the GOP candidates.

As a fairly centrist Republican, I'd have no problem voting for Giuliani or McCain. Neither candidate is perfect, but I think both would be able to get things done as president. Also, with either one, we'd have a better chance of addressing our looming entitlement crises than we would with a Democrat as president. I still think Gingrich is the smartest potential candidate on either side, but he's not so electable (btw, anyone who doubts his intelligence should catch him on CSPAN sometime).

The toughest candidate from the Dems' perspective would have to be Giuliani: He's used to dealing with a hostile press corps, all his dirty laundry is already out of the hamper too. McCain's old advantage was that the press liked him, but now they don't, so that's going to hurt him.

Iraq may be less of a factor in '08 than some realize. If Dems are successful in ending the war by then, it won't be much of an issue; if they're not, it will be a liability for them as well.

As a fairly centrist Khmer Rouge Democrat, I'd have no problem voting for Pol Pot, Jr., or Ahmadinijead. Neither candidate is perfect, but I think both would be able to get things done as President, Also, with either one, we'd have a better chance of dealing with our looming trust fund parasite crises than we would with a Republican as President. I still think Mugabe is the smartest potential candidate on either side, but he's not so electable (btw, anyone who doubts his intelligence should catch him on al-Jazeera DSpan sometime).

Clever, Trevor, in an absurdist sort of way. See if you can stretch it out to the length of a play. Repeat a few times, and their might be a Nobel Prize for Literature with your name on it a couple decades hence.

It cracks me up to see conservatives going goo-goo eyed over Thompson. He's a completely unkown factor on the national stage, and has been out of politics for years. Once he actually gets into the race, he will be shredded. Right now, he is just a white knight fantasy for desperate conservatives.

A former actor can get elected mayor or even Governor after they have some recent political experience, but a TV actor becoming President of the United States? And one with no recent political experience? You've got to be kidding.

Plus, he is far from "distinguished" or "handsome." He's a creepy walking cadaver, especially when you see him with his paws on his trophy wife.

He has no chance of becoming President. But I'd love to see him jump in the race and drag down a lot of conservatives with him! It's fun to see them fight amongst themselves.

A former actor can get elected mayor or even Governor after they have some recent political experience, but a TV actor becoming President of the United States? And one with no recent political experience? You've got to be kidding.
Breast gain plus

He has no chance of becoming President. But I'd love to see him jump in the race and drag down a lot of conservatives with him! It's fun to see them fight amongst themselves.

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