Getting to Yes
Michael Hirsh says he thinks the Bush administration is getting ready to take yes for an answer from Teheran:
On the latter point, the Bush administration does seem to be shifting in tone. With the departure of several key Bush hardliners in recent months, it feels as if the regime-change fever has broken in Washington. While still talking tough, chief Iran envoy Nicholas Burns sounded almost magnanimous toward Tehran on Wednesday as he detailed the “multiple points of pressure” being applied on Iran’s leaders. Speaking at a Rand Corp. conference on Capitol Hill, Burns said the Western allies are still very willing to offer Tehran a nearly simultaneous "suspension for suspension"—that is, the West will stop the U.N. resolution process if Iran ceases enriching—even though the Americans and Europeans are in a much stronger position than they were several months ago. Just as importantly, Burns said the United States was sensitive to Tehran’s need to save face after its leaders have spent months defiantly insisting that they would never give up their uranium-enrichment program. “We understand they have their domestic political arena” to think about, he said. “We have carefully given the Iranians ‘exit doors’” —ways to retain a civilian nuclear program while guaranteeing there would be no bomb.
I certainly hope that's right. I was at the conference, though, and though all points of view were represented, there was an overall dovish tone (Iran's ambassador to the UN even spoke via teleconference, but I unfortunately had to miss him) so this sort of sentiment is what the audience wanted to hear. That Burns was interested in showing up at all, however, was certainly a good sign. I would have more faith, though, if this sort of message were going to a different audience.
Comments
I think Tehran blinked, the idea that Iran can't come up $250 million to pay Russia for their nuke bill is risible. Similarly, thinking that the Russians are going to make major foreign policy decisions based on sums like that is risible.
If it all plays out peaceably and Iran get's their civilian nuke program and comes out of cold diplomatically, I'd say well played all around. Of course, this really would be the death knell for Bush. His disciples hate the father for imposing an onerous loser's fiat on Saddam instead of ousting him, how much are they gonna hate the son after they got their war woops going if he opens up diplomatic relations with Iran and builds them a light water reactor?
Just as leftists are often guilty of wishful thinking- "Newsweek's Hirsh here is guilty of the same. #1. I wouldn't count Russia as necessarily on board the 'Let's put the squeeze on Iran' club. One small move does not make a course change. #2. I don't see the Iranians relinquishing their chance to go nuclear. There's too much at stake- national pride, and an effective deterrent to attacks from the U.S. and Israel. And, #3. I don't think it's a given that sanctions will work. In short, while it's encouraging to hear less talk of War...I think the overall scenario Hirsh paints is because that's what Hirsh wants.
Oh please! Cheney is still around with his black cloud drifting around Washington.
"However, the real victories are Washington's relaxation of its siege on Syria and its willingness to talk with Iran, and these owe themselves not to American ploys but to the failure of and staunch resistance against American designs in Lebanon, Iraq and Palestine." (from the Egyptian paper Al Ahram)
Iran defeated the U.S. in Lebanon. They're playing a winning hand. On the one hand they've got Ahmadinijead saying things the Arab masses yearn to hear, and the mullahs cautiously courting the Europeans. Russia is winning too and Putin is as cagey as they come. There's every reason to believe that this latest contretemps with Iran is but a mutually agreed upon dance step designed to fool the Americans.
"However, the real victories are Washington's relaxation of its siege on Syria and its willingness to talk with Iran, and these owe themselves not to American ploys but to the failure of and staunch resistance against American designs in Lebanon, Iraq and Palestine." (from the Egyptian paper Al Ahram)
Iran defeated the U.S. in Lebanon. They're playing a winning hand. On the one hand they've got Ahmadinijead saying things the Arab masses yearn to hear, and the mullahs cautiously courting the Europeans. Russia is winning too and Putin is as cagey as they come. There's every reason to believe that this latest contretemps with Iran is but a mutually agreed upon dance step designed to get the Americans to lower their guard.
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