Weak Tea

I have to agree with Ponnuru on Romney (or at least Kilgore's interpretation), Romney has had a horrible launch, perhaps debilitatingly horrible. If McCain could just make all of the Republican's forget his "moderate years," 1999-2005, he'd be set.

Do conservatives understand that given the gross unpopularity of Bush's military adventures at this point, nominating someone whose main profile as a conservative is grounded in his strong rhetorical support of Bush's military adventures isn't going to work out well?

Huh? What does McCain's "main profile as a conservative" have to do with the general election? McCain would be running on his biography in the general.

If I were a conservative, I wouldn't want my guy to be in the White House this next time around. The shit is sooo going to hit the fan, and though people will vaguely remember Bush fucking everything up, the guy in office is going to take most of the heat. All my Supreme Court justices will live until the administration beginning in 2013.

Second post today using the term ex ante. Word a day calendar?

Could be worse. NRO is the Magazine of Resentment, so usually they're promoting candidates based on their likelihood of irritating liberals, centrists, fact-based people, scientists, experts - you know, sane people.

I am enjoying the conservative meltdown immensely. I scanned NRO twice yesterday looking for the words "North Korea" to appear, and unless I missed them, I think the christian soldiers at NRO decided to simply pretend that story didn't happen.

"Do conservatives understand that given the gross unpopularity of Bush's military adventures at this point, nominating someone whose main profile as a conservative is grounded in his strong rhetorical support of Bush's military adventures isn't going to work out well?"

I don't think this is astute electoral analysis.

Giuliani and McCain are their two strongest general election candidates despite fitting your profile.

That's the difference between us and them. K-Lo even has a post today saying that Huckabee, Brownback, et al should mute their criticism of the "front-runners" because it's certain one of the three of them will win the nomination. Instead, the real conservatives should be takes steps to fluff up the fakes as conservatives.

They are partisan Republican hacks, first and foremost. They are apparatchiks. They are stooges. They are tools.

Slippery Pete,

It's funnier even than that. Neither the Corner, nor Powerline, nor Instapundit has yet posted on the North Korea revelations OR the US Attorney political firings.

Neither the Corner, nor Powerline, nor Instapundit has yet posted on the North Korea revelations OR the US Attorney political firings.

Probably because both those "stories" are made-up left-wing media bullsh*t.

Bush fires political appointees. Oooh. Big story.

Intelligence Community slightly changes its evaluation of intelligence. Scary.

"grounded in his strong rhetorical support of Bush's military adventures isn't going to work out well?"

This would describe pretty much all the GOP candidates running. Rudy even suggested that God had something to do with Bush becoming president.

Rudy is not going to be the GOP nominee. By the time McCain's swiftboaters are through with him he will be gone.

Odd, though, Al. Usually those sites spend a lot of time identifying and debunking left-wing media bullshit. Why, you might even say it's a mission of theirs, to show the world how the media unjustly smears Republicans. Yet in this case, strangely, silence.

And while you take it as a given that they were fired for political reasons and there's nothing wrong with that, the Justice Department sent a witness to the Judiciary Committee who testified under oath that they were all fired for "performance-related" issues. It's still not okay to lie to Congress, you know. Anyway, the silence is odd.

Barring a freak coincidence in which the Republicans are crazy enough to nominate someone other than Giuliani or McCain, the very best possible scenario for the Democrats is for Giuliani to continue to be the GOP front-runner well into the primary season, but lose the nomination to McCain.

If McCain runs from behind, his only hope of catching Rudy is to attack him mercilessly on conservative culture-war issues, and rake him through the mud for being pro-choice, gay friendly, etc. By so doing, McCain will sabotage what's left of his centrist appeal.

The smart thing for Democrats to do is to hold their fire on Giuliani until he's won New Hampshire and is cruising down to South Carolina. Then unload on him with both barrels.

It's worth noting, as well, that whatever one wants to say about conservativism, it is a philosophy that embraces a lot more than the abortion issue (and indeed, there are conservatives who do not care about abortion at all or are even pro-choice).

For whatever reasons, Ponnuru is a militant pro-lifer and, apparently, a single-issue voter. But political parties have to build coalitions to win elections, and single-issue voting is antithetical to that. Ponnuru needs to grow up and realize that.

Obviously none of these guys are a match for Johnny "bitchen populist" Edwards or Barack "fresh face" Obama (who curiously enough was referred to as a real "fresh face" by some dude on that Amy Goodman show last night) but none of these lib Hitler Hillary types have a chance against any of them.

I don't think this is astute electoral analysis.

Giuliani and McCain are their two strongest general election candidates despite fitting your profile.

That's probably true--but it's in spite of their staunch support of Bush and his military misadventures, not because of it.

The 2008 Republican field is a sorry, sorry one indeed.

It amuses me to think

A) How many Dem writers are giving Republican writers advice about who they should be pushing for to advance the conservative agenda.
B) How many Dem writers are in fact taking their own advice and pushing low-polling Democratic candidates like Bill Richardson.
C) How happy I would be if I felt that conservatism itself was a bad ideology and was the most important thing to avoid in a President, because looking at the current field, they are the most unrepresented minority there, right before atheists.

"That's probably true--but it's in spite of their staunch support of Bush and his military misadventures..."

I don't think so.

I think that at worst, Iraq is a wash for McCain and Giuliani, and it's more likely a bit of an electoral positive for them.

none of these lib Hitler Hillary types have a chance against any of them.

Wait! Do you think we can get a front page Washington Post blaring headline about this?? "Angry extremist Republican pollutes moderate, sensible liberal website." Howard Kurtz should jump in right away!

Jeb scares me in '08. Anyone else?

C) How happy I would be if I felt that conservatism itself was a bad ideology and was the most important thing to avoid in a President, because looking at the current field, they are the most unrepresented minority there, right before atheists.

It's a mistake too get too complacent about the consevatism of these guys. At the Corner now, they're fete-ing Romney for jumping through the requisite hoops at the CPAC (judges bad, spending bad, etc.). Romney, and anyone else running to the left of Sam Brownback, will have no compunction about saying the right things, stroking the right egos, and learning the right code to speak in.

I'm reminded of a thought from Hunter S. Thompson from Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail '72 (paraphrasing): A top politician running for president is like a bull moose in heat. For 50 weeks of the year, the moose is quiet, agile, and a graceful creature. In the mating season, though, it quite literally tears apart the forest on a quest for a moosette. Many actually rip some of their flesh off as they run over and past trees in their lust. Presidential candiates really are half-mad animals and they're so close to the top, they don't care how they get there, they just want to make that crazed sprint through the woods.

Also, in 1999, George W. Bush was widely considered to be the moderate, reformist candidate of the GOP, much as McCain is now. Bush hadn't burned any bridges, but it's worth keeping in mind as the deal goes down, to paraphase HST again.

"Probably because both those "stories" are made-up left-wing media bullsh*t.

Bush fires political appointees. Oooh. Big story.

Posted by: Al on March 2, 2007 03:45 PM"

I guess Al is fraying at the edges right along with the National Review. He isn't bothering with even sophistical reasoning any more -- just going straight to the cussin'.

Are we supposed to believe that you are so completely ignorant of how the American political, economic, and justice system works that you can't see why U.S. attorneys aren't just another "political appointee"? Why it's not OK to fire them every time they don't do your political will?

I assume you'll have no protest when President Hilary fires every U.S. attorney who refuses to bring corruption charges against Republican candidates for office.

"Jeb scares me in '08. Anyone else?"

Not in '08. The Bush™ brand is mud at the moment, and it won't recover in the next 18 months. But he scares me down the line. He's an attractive candidate.

Re: Do conservatives understand that given the gross unpopularity of Bush's military adventures at this point, nominating someone whose main profile as a conservative is grounded in his strong rhetorical support of Bush's military adventures isn't going to work out well?

No, they don't understand this. Oh, to be sure, the more sensible conservatives (Buckley, Will, Senators Brownback and Hagel, among others) do understand that the Iraq War is a cluster event of first magnitude. But among too many others denial runs very deep and they just cannot conceive that Iraq is lost or that the American people have turned against it (and were probably never really on board to start with). Some are still suffering from 9-11 Deranegment Syndrome and are scared shiteless of the Great Muslim Threat. Others have bought into the Christianist POV of George Bush as the Lord's Anointed who of course can do no wrong. However it is, those folks are seriously disconnected from reality these days. The election of 2006 woke a few of them back, but most plunged even deeper into denial. Check out the blogs and comments on RedState (one of the least looney rightwing sites) for a sample of this.

Re: If I were a conservative, I wouldn't want my guy to be in the White House this next time around.

They don't think that way. They reason that a Democrat in the White House will move the country leftward (especially if things do go bad), and worse, will appoint liberal judges. Victories, for these people, are only temporary while defeats, however small and tactical, are catastrophes.

Oh sure Ben, I fear the passionate Republicanism of the potential nominees, particularly Giuliani.

But actual slow change, isolationist, low-spending policies that would really work to move our culture backwards (instead of just campaigning against it) is incredibly rare amongst the upcoming GOP leaders.

Tony--

It's true that the front runners as of now are not archetypal conservatives. This is probably a good thing, and I do see your point (I was also looking for a chance to use that Moose anecdote in polite society).

But I still think you should be hesitant about pegging down these still unknown entities. What's more, if one of these apparently non-conservatives was elected (let's say Guliani, who is particularly disingenuous), they'd be spending their entire first term pretending just as hard that they're the real deal, rock ribbed conservative. But they'd also have policy and hiring choices to use to make that point to "base" voters. The distinction between a conservative and a non-conservative governing in his first term would be one without difference.

This is the issue of what's in the candidate's true hearts, and what they'll say or do to get elected. I don't care a whit about the first, and neither do most Republican voters, I don't think. Policies don't spring forth from a president's heart.

I think that at worst, Iraq is a wash for McCain and Giuliani, and it's more likely a bit of an electoral positive for them.

You gotta elaborate your point Petey. How is continuing support for the War in Iraq NOT a net negative in the general election? This goes for a number of other policies that are attached to President Bush as well.

Petey, I recognize that this fact may be inconvenient for your demonstrated love of killing innocent Muslims, but the election doesn't happen for almost 2 years, and a lot can happen in the meantime. With regard to Iraq, virtually every development that is in the realm of the reasonably possible will HELP relatively dovish candidates, and HURT monsters like McCain and Guiliani.

Now I realize that Iraq isn't the only foriegn policy issue on the horizon, and one can imagine circumstances where animals like McCain MIGHT get a boost, but given the MOST LIKELY circumstances, I think that Matthew's analysis makes a lot more sense than yours.

If one looks at the GOP field, it is obvious that Chuck Hagel would be the most dangerous candidate for any of the Democrats to face. He has none of the negatives that the other GOP candidates have, is a strong conservative but is not identified with the religious right and is very negative about getting involved in foreign wars. In particular, he has denoted the Vietnam War as one fought for dubious purposes, has been quite negative from the get go about the adventure in Iraq and is quite dubious about a war against Iran.

Given America's long history of electing kewl Dems (like Johnny "bitchen populist" Edwards or Barack "fresh face" Obama) to end its failed wars of choice rather than some cosnervative type I think we can expect a bitchen populist or else fresh face not only to get the Democratic nomination but win easily. I think what America wants and needs now is to get back to the way things used to be - a return to normal if you will. Americans steadfastly refuse to give up their civil liberties now because they are like totally rational enough to understand that the chances of some Islamic jerk type flying an airplane into their place of work or a sexual predator abducting their child from her bedroom is somewhat less likely than being mauled to death by a previously unknown species of tusked North American herd animal. What's important to most Americans these days is teaching these politicians a lesson about making failed wars of choice rather than electing someone who will make them feel proud of their country and allow them to ignore the fact that their country is one of those big imperial jerk types.

Is it because they feel that nobody really has the, um, mojo to win the general election like the three major candidates?

On a related note, whatever happened to the buzz about Gov. Mark Sanford of South Carolina? I remember his name being thrown around by Grover Norquist a few years ago.

Is Hagel coming in or is he just biding his time? Waiting 'till Dracula or The Manchurian Candidate steps on their dick or somethin'. Given the fact that the former and the latter are NOT cultural conservatives and that Mitt looks phony as fuck- the man's got a shot and how long can he wait to get in? A few months? Because we all know that Hagel would beat Hillary. And that a Hagel v.s. Obama race is the best we could hope for. So, what is he thinking now? Is it the money? (certainly daunting) Or something else?

Hagel is, ironically, the Republican's Joe Lieberman. He's pretty good on most issues but an outspoken apostate on the war. As a consequence, the party base hates him and he can't possibly win the nomination.

Yeah, but the party base isn't getting their way anyway. And, unlike the Democrats where the War is the #1 issue- that's not necessarily the case with the Republicans. They just want a conservative enough candidate who can win. Hitler would stand a better chance with Democrats than Lieberman. Who's to say Hagel couldn't wrest the nomination from his competition?

"Yeah, but the party base isn't getting their way anyway."

Nope, either the Republican party base gets it's way OR the candidate loses so pathetically it turns him into a bad joke.

The thing neither Republicans nor Democrats can really wrap their minds around is that the Republican party is now quite simply the party of the Bush family and their retainers. Various Bushes are the only candidates who can bridge the two necessary parts of the Republican party - the money men and the fundamentalists. For every other Republican politician, they either need to be creatures of the money men or the fundamentalists - which means that when Republican politicians go for the only national office we have, they are always missing support from either one group or the other.

The Bushes are the ONLY figures who can readily bridge the two groups - the Bushes themselves are money men from way way back (so the business community knows they're solid in that direction) BUT they're ALSO Texans and can pretend to be fundamentalists (though they, in fact, aren't either Texans nor fundamentalists). No other Republican politicians can easily do this, which is why we're going to have a Jeb presidential campaign in 2012, thirty years after George Bush's first presidential campaign.

I keep expecting some traditional conservatives (not the authoritarian resentophiles Stoller talks about) to beg Bill Frist to get back in the race. But like Gore and maybe Wes Clark, for reasons I don't really understand, Frist seems to be one of those accomplished, qualified, intelligent politicians who can't seem to inspire any enthusiasm or support in the context of a Presidential race.

"a Jeb presidential campaign in 2012, thirty years after George Bush's first presidential campaign"

32 years? 26 years? Not 30 years--no election in 1982 . . .

"Frist seems to be one of those accomplished, qualified, intelligent politicians who can't seem to inspire any enthusiasm or support in the context of a Presidential race"

As Senate majority leader, Frist made a fool of himself on a national stage, notably over the Schiavo matter. Yeah, he's apparently a competent doctor, and smart enough to make a ton of money out of the country's disfunctional health care system, but he's not competent as a politician.

And of course, nobody who is on the record confessing to serial kitten-killing can ever be elected president.

Abortion is all they have left. Amazing. Even gay marriage/civil ceremonies are quietly coming, and the conservatives know it.

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