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Man, for a while there it looked like we were in for a very interesting first round. Denver wins! Golden State wins! Phoenix struggling! Maybe the Rockets can take it all! Now, the "big three" all seem firmly back in control to me.

4/26/07 12:02PM del.icio.us this incoming links

Comments

I was happy with the Powder Blues in Game 2.

They played what was likely their worst game of the series, and they still managed to keep things close at down the stretch.

Most importantly, just like the Spurs in Game 1, they were missing layups and open shots. The Spurs weren't taking things away from them.

I think they take two in Denver, and close out in 5 or (more likely) 6.

(Camby's DPOY award will help incrementally in getting good treatment by the zebras for the entire Denver front line. And considering that front line foul trouble has been my biggest single worry for this series, that's actually a big deal.)

Even if they pull off the upset in this series, the Spurs still aren't title bound. They've got incurable weaknesses that will get exploited by some other elite team if the Powder Blues aren't up to the task at hand.

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Dallas obviously is going to win their series, as was obvious before Game 2 tipped off.

Posted by: Petey on April 26, 2007 12:16 PM

Now, the "big three" all seem firmly back in control

Uh, no. Did you see the Denver game?

Posted by: SomeCallMeTim on April 26, 2007 12:16 PM

I don't think it is at all obvious that Dallas will win the series. GS has a legitimate shot at pulling off the upset.

Posted by: blah on April 26, 2007 12:32 PM

Matt seems to be mailing it in, Broder-style. I feel like we've been watching different leagues.

Posted by: Steve on April 26, 2007 12:36 PM

"I don't think it is at all obvious that Dallas will win the series. GS has a legitimate shot at pulling off the upset."

Nescience must make the games all the more unpredictable, which certainly adds to the entertainment value for you. So no harm, no foul.

Posted by: Petey on April 26, 2007 12:38 PM

Did you see the Denver game?

Maybe he didn't. He is on vacation, after all. Hopefully he was out boozing it up and hitting on some women (ooops, forgot about the GF) rather than back at the hotel room watching Denver-SA.

Posted by: Al on April 26, 2007 12:41 PM

Re: Steve - Yeah, it might seem that way. On the other hand, I think there's something to be said for not overreacting to 1 or 2 NBA games. Obviously, if you go in an 0-2 hole, that can be tough to recover from even if you're a much better team. But if you drop the opener and then bounce back in game 2... I think he's still being a little cavalier with respect to his Denver prediction, but he's obviously just very confident in his original assessment of the Spurs. It must be that +/- that he's so focused on. Hard to argue with the Dallas predictions, though. The difference b/w a legitimate shot and a long shot is... probably the difference b/w GS and Denver at this point.

What would be kind of funny is after that debate about whether the easy path to the conference finals resulted in the Bulls being the favorites to win the East, and then the Bulls lost their #2 spot... if they won anyways. Of course, they still have to beat the Pistons, which was going to be the problem all along anyhow.

Posted by: mpowell on April 26, 2007 12:45 PM

"I don't think it is at all obvious that Dallas will win the series."

Dallas was 1/16 on threes, most of the misses by Terry. They were still showing nerves, which may decline after getting a win and breaking the jinx. In other words, Game 2 was still Dallas at maybe 70-80%. Petey and Barkley were sayin 5, I think GS may get another win as Dallas relaxes, so I will say six. Johnson can play mind games, but he wants the team to return to its machine-mind. No fear, no hope, just a job to do.

"NBA general managers voted Nowitzki the league MVP -- in a survey, not an actual ballot. They don't get a vote for the real award." ...says it all

Posted by: bob mcmanus on April 26, 2007 12:45 PM

Nescience must make the games all the more unpredictable.

If it were so obvious, it would be easy for you to explain. But you haven't dones so for an obvious reason.

Posted by: blah on April 26, 2007 12:59 PM

"Matt seems to be mailing it in, Broder-style. I feel like we've been watching different leagues."

I think fans are tired of teams that work against eachother. The recent All-Star ballotting was a clear indication that NBA fans want the teams to cooperate, expand on their common ground, compromise on their differences and achieve a state of championshipness that the whole league can feel proud of. An important part of this is recognizing that the Miami Heat won the title. Challenging them for the title again this year is just an act of ugly partisanship.

Posted by: Njorl on April 26, 2007 12:59 PM

"Hopefully he was out boozing it up and hitting on some women (ooops, forgot about the GF) rather than back at the hotel room watching Denver-SA."

If you'd choose hot vacation sex over watching an Allen Iverson playoff game, your priorities are obviously badly out of order.

Posted by: Petey on April 26, 2007 01:01 PM

Njorl wins.

Posted by: Petey on April 26, 2007 01:02 PM

I was watching the SA game, and saw Duncan jump in the air at the top of the key, facing the basket, and make this brilliant crosscourt pass to the guy in the corner.

And then I watched Nowitzki back from the key toward the basket, draw the doubleteam, pass it straight out, pass, pass, guy in the corner.

A few years ago, when Nash was feeding him and Nellie was playing "first-look" basketball, I seriously considered Nowitzki a potential 40-50 pt average guy. He can still shoot threes. He tried two last night. He has not gotten worse as a as a shooter or player.

Posted by: bob mcmanus on April 26, 2007 01:02 PM

"If it were so obvious, it would be easy for you to explain."

I don't think this is an area of study subject to mathematical proofs. It's more in the category of if you have to ask, you'll never know...

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(And tangentially, why do folks get so testy when I insult them?)

Posted by: Petey on April 26, 2007 01:04 PM

Great post, Njorl.

Posted by: Steve on April 26, 2007 01:05 PM

(And tangentially, why do folks get so testy when I insult them?)

Now, that's funny. In your previous sentence you provided the answer to your own question (unwittingly, of course):

It's more in the category of if you have to ask, you'll never know...

Posted by: Brian on April 26, 2007 01:18 PM

every SA/denver game is going to be like that. The spurs have a lot of practice winning 4 of seven games that are like that.

and with iverson/melo playing like 25 more total minutes than duncan a game? you should do better than just be in it. and the closer the spurs get to closing it out, the more duncan's minutes will increase.

Posted by: MP on April 26, 2007 01:31 PM

"The spurs have a lot of practice winning 4 of seven games that are like that."

The Spurs do indeed have wonderful experience.

But with experience comes age, and the Spurs are just a bit too old 'n' slow to matchup well against Denver.

Experience cuts both ways.

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There are plenty of ways Denver can lose this series. They've only been together for real for about two months now. They're relying on major contributions from multiple players under 24 years of age. J.R. Smith hasn't been seen in months now.

But they've got a better team than San Antonio does, (even if the casual fan isn't aware of this yet), and the only way they lose a series to San Antonio is if they beat themselves.

Posted by: Petey on April 26, 2007 01:40 PM

Dude, petey,

I understand your enthusiasm for the Nuggets, but they are the underdogs in the series. San Antonio is clearly favored by the statistically literate and illiterate. Not to say it's a sure thing, but if Denver wins, they are pulling the upset.

In any event, this is stupid and moot because Denver will lose. Melo and AI may have another efficient game in them, but they definitely don't have three in them. Manu and Parker's game will pick up. Duncan will improve. Pop will make proper adjustments.

Posted by: anon on April 26, 2007 01:46 PM

Ha ha

Didn't think you were a basketball fan. Here's a link, I know I haven't left a link in a while.

Posted by: Swan on April 26, 2007 01:47 PM

"I understand your enthusiasm for the Nuggets, but they are the underdogs in the series. San Antonio is clearly favored by the statistically literate and illiterate."

No doubt. Their underdog status is why I'm going to make enough money to buy a yacht if Denver wins the series.

But the wisdom of crowds is not always wise.

I'd have bet Denver in this series at even money odds. They matchup very, very well against San Antonio. (Oddly, Peter Vescey was pretty much the only "expert" who saw what I saw coming into this series.)

Posted by: Petey on April 26, 2007 02:05 PM

over watching an Allen Iverson playoff game

Dunno. Perhaps other people aren't as interested as you are in shows about bricklaying (9-25, natch).

Posted by: Al on April 26, 2007 02:15 PM

The last time Golden State was in the playoffs, the OJ Trial had just started. We're out of our mind with excitement over here. Nowhere to go but up.

Posted by: sangfroid826 on April 26, 2007 02:16 PM

"Dunno. Perhaps other people aren't as interested as you are in shows about bricklaying (9-25, natch)."

Bubbachuck has plenty of decent games where he doesn't shoot well, but he looked absolutely awful in game 2 until the fourth quarter, where he made partial amends.

He didn't get to the free throw line once, which is more than slightly unusual.

He gets into trouble sometimes in Denver when he tries to start off games being Steve Blake instead of Allen Iverson. He thinks he's being a good teammate, but he's a better teammate when he's penetrating with velocity and making a last second decision to shoot or pass. I think being a Steve Blake wanna-be was his problem in the first half of game 2.

Posted by: Petey on April 26, 2007 02:24 PM

Man Petey, you are either quite the gambler or loaded.

Posted by: mpowell on April 26, 2007 02:26 PM

or loaded

Which definition of loaded you going for there?

Posted by: Al on April 26, 2007 02:31 PM

I don't think this is an area of study subject to mathematical proofs. It's more in the category of if you have to ask, you'll never know...

Nobody asked for mathematical proofs. If something is so difficult to explain, it is clearly not as obvious as you apparently think.

Posted by: blah on April 26, 2007 02:44 PM

so, occurring to Powder Blue Petey, Denver can beat SA, Denver can beat Denver, but SA can't beat Denver. ooookaaaay

Do the spurs really look slow to you? Not their pace or style, because that has been slow for 10 years. But which players honestly look like if they wanted to haul ass they'd need two trips? Iverson is wicked fast and can't stay in front of Parker. Melo is spry and 21 but guards Ginobili about never. Duncan is 31 yesterday but will continue to abuse their much quicker big men, just as he has done his entire career. That is why he is REALLY GOOD.

Posted by: MP on April 26, 2007 03:38 PM

"Do the spurs really look slow to you?"

Yup. Old 'n' slow.

Bowen, Finley, Oberto, Horry, Barry are all a year old and a step slow (at least).

San Antonio is exploitable. Denver has the right personnel to exploit them. The issue is one of Denver being able to maintain a shallow rooted team cohesion during the high winds of the playoffs.

Speed kills.

Posted by: Petey on April 26, 2007 04:00 PM

Well, yeah, whatever, guys.

The Rockets are still going to take it all!

Posted by: Woody Bombay on April 26, 2007 04:07 PM

"Duncan is 31 yesterday but will continue to abuse their much quicker big men, just as he has done his entire career. That is why he is REALLY GOOD."

Y'see that's part of what's going on. Duncan hasn't abused Nene over the first two games. Or Nene has abused him right back in turn. Check out their boxscore lines - it's basically a draw.

And it's not all that unexpected. Being able to playing the Spurs close to even at the '4' most games is part of what I'm talking about in saying that Denver matches up well with them.

Posted by: Petey on April 26, 2007 04:09 PM

(And tangentially, why do folks get so testy when I insult them?)

You're well versed in message board rhetoric. That can be disarming.

Me personally, I just bruise easy. But it's all love Petey.

ps Ugly people don't deserve to live.

Posted by: Freddie on April 26, 2007 04:13 PM

I remember a coach once saying he preferred tall guys to short fast guys, because at the end of the game the tall guys are still tall but the short fast guys are tired and slower. I hadn't thought of that for years, but it came back to me watching GS-Dallas last night.

Posted by: mrgumby2u on April 26, 2007 05:49 PM

"I remember a coach once saying he preferred tall guys to short fast guys, because at the end of the game the tall guys are still tall but the short fast guys are tired and slower"

Denver has two tall & fast guys in Nene and Melo.

Posted by: Petey on April 26, 2007 06:01 PM

GS-Dallas was decided by the refs in the third. Dallas did not play any better than Golden State.

Posted by: matt on April 26, 2007 06:02 PM

Hey Swan--Keep your links to yourself. What a maroon.....

Posted by: WTF on April 26, 2007 06:25 PM

"GS-Dallas was decided by the refs in the third. Dallas did not play any better than Golden State."

Whatever. Obviously Golden State, with their 15-6 finish, is a better team than their 8th seed would usually indicate. But having lived with Nellie in Dallas for a long time, his style will create more emotional collapses than Johnson's. GS wasn't going to sweep Dallas. Get your fanboy under control.

The Western Conference is hell. Just fucking hell.

Posted by: bob mcmanus on April 26, 2007 06:30 PM

Until Davis and Jackson were ejected (Davis for felony sarcasm), it was a close one. Doesn't the NBA tell its refs that they shouldn't be deciding playoff games?

Posted by: Mike Schilling on April 26, 2007 08:23 PM

"Until Davis and Jackson were ejected (Davis for felony sarcasm), it was a close one." ,,, Mike Schilling

"Baron Davis was tossed with 0.2 seconds left in the third quarter and Stephen Jackson was lost with 4:34 left in the game. Golden State already was trailing when the technical fouls started piling up." ...Yahoo NBA, links on request

Score at the end of 3: 87-74. The lead got bigger, but didn't get much smaller.

"The game was turning into a rout when Jackson got his second technical" ...see above

I think a twenty point lead, which shrunk as the Mavs slowed the game down and Johnson took some starters out.

Nelson fined Davis and Jackson today, probably as a warning to not fuck with Stern. My guess is that one or both will get suspended before the series ends, and guys like Schilling can blame it all on the refs. I really shouldn't argue with liars, crazies, or Republicans.

I change my prediction. Mavs in 5.

Posted by: bob mcmanus on April 26, 2007 08:59 PM

Bob,

You think the Mavericks are going to sweep the Warriors in Oakland? Check out the Warriors home/road split this season- I'd say they're quite likely to win at least one of the games at home, and possibly two.

Mavs in 7, but I'm a Warriors fan so take it with a grain of salt.

Posted by: Matt Schiavenza on April 26, 2007 09:11 PM

OK, bob. We'll see.

But the game was closer than the final score. The Warriors were within 6 or 8 until late in the 3rd. Once Baron got tossed, there was no hope of overcoming that.

I'm not saying the Warriors will win the series -- at least, not with any certainty that I'd back with cash or anything -- but they'll win at least another game. It's going to be fucking nuts in Oakland tomorrow night. Plus, Jessica Alba will be there to will us to victory.

Posted by: too many steves on April 26, 2007 09:13 PM

Speaking of the refs in the GS game, what was with that terrible call in the second (?) saying GS didn't inbound right? I rewound and watched it 4 times because I was so shocked at the call.

Posted by: eriks on April 26, 2007 09:27 PM

Back to Normal

The Lakers sucking is not normal.

You haters may enjoy it (and I can't blame you) - but it ain't normal.

One day, hopefully soon, all will be right with the universe again.

It's no coincidence that both the U.S. and the Lakers are suffering low points at the same time...

Posted by: SoCalJustice on April 26, 2007 10:08 PM

How about the much maligned Kwame Brown in game 3? He may yet make the Wizards regret they dumped him.

Posted by: SLC on April 27, 2007 07:37 PM

Dumped him? They traded him for Caron Butler. I don't think they're going to be regretting that anytime soon.

Posted by: too many steves on April 27, 2007 08:10 PM

Hey Petey, is it still obvious?