Hollinger's Odds

Insiders can read the whole explanation, but basically John Hollinger used his power rankings formula, then looked at the playoff seedings, and came up with the following odds of taking home the rings:

San Antonio: 37 percent.
Dallas: 25.5 percent.
Phoenix 11.6 percent.
Detroit: 10.8 percent.
Cleveland: 5.5 percent.
Chicago: 5.2 percent.
Houston: 4.1 percent.

The field -- and, yes, this includes Miami -- has very low odds according to Hollinger.

4/20/07 7:30PM del.icio.us this incoming links

Comments

I agree with everything in his prediction except (a) the ordering of San Antonio and Dallas, and (b) the inclusion of Chicago. But I suspect that the arc from his position to mine includes at least 90% of of all NBA-fan opinion, so I'm not clear precisely how much value his numeric speculations are adding.

Posted by: SomeCallMeTim on April 21, 2007 12:05 PM

One thing I really dislike about ESPN.com is the way they let non-subscribers see a couple paragraphs of "Insider" material. It would be better if you couldn't see anything at all, instead they create a "teaser" effect. Of course that makes good sense from a marketing standpoint, but it's still annoying.

Posted by: Peter on April 21, 2007 12:40 PM

I like Phoenix v. Detroit (because that was my pre-season pick, and a good match-up for my Stones) but this seems about right, if you could adjust it for the fact that Houston has been injured all season. If the Rockets had the luxury of being in the East, they'd probably be the favorite to win the whole thing.

Posted by: Jerry on April 21, 2007 12:48 PM

A San Antonio 12 point disparage over Dallas? Houstan at only 4%? I wonder if John Hollinger helped Rove create his new math to predict elections.

Posted by: A different Matt on April 21, 2007 12:53 PM

Dilemma: do I wath Nets-Raps in high def on ESPN with random bad announcers, or in non-high def on YES with Marv Albert and Mark Jackson? I think ya gotta go with Marv and Mark.

Posted by: Al on April 21, 2007 01:07 PM

Well, of course. WSJ.com does the same thing. See, e.g., this article, which I was going to mention. It is about a statistical analysis, by a professor of statistics at BYU, of who are the best NBA players in the clutch. Who's best? Dwayne Wade, of course. But who's second best? Vince Carter, baby.

Posted by: Al on April 21, 2007 01:13 PM

I would think the Pistons' odds would be higher if only because they have a better chance of making it to the finals based on the weakness of their conference. I might not be understanding the math, and it might be explained in the article, but are the Spurs really 3 times more likely than Detroit to make the finals?

Posted by: Buddha Edwards on April 21, 2007 02:04 PM

"WARRIORS, COME OUT TO PLAY-AY!!!"

Posted by: Luther, leader of the Rogues on April 22, 2007 01:50 PM

This implies that the Western Conference champ has a greater than 78% chance of winning the Finals, which sounds implausible. It's just a best-of-seven series, and weird things happen.

Posted by: Steve Sailer on April 22, 2007 09:58 PM

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