Kirkuk Referendum

One long-running on-the-horizon flashpoint in Iraq is the future of Kirkuk. At the insistence of the Kurdish parties, the Iraqi Constitution mandates that there will be a referendum on whether or not the Kirkuk region should be brought under the umbrella of the Kurdistan Regional Government. This has created a lot of incentive for KRG-aligned forced to try to push Arabs out of the area. Scot Maclead notes an International Crisis Group report on Kirkuk:

With every day and each exploding bomb that kills schoolchildren or shoppers, hopes for peaceful resolution of the Kirkuk question recede. The approach favoured by the Kurds, constitution-based steps culminating in a referendum by year’s end, is bitterly opposed by Kirkuk’s other principal communities – Arabs and Turkomans – who see it as a rigged process with predetermined outcome. Their preference, to keep Kirkuk under federal government control, is rejected by the Kurds. With all sides dug in and the Kurds believing Kirkuk is a lost heirloom they are about to regain, the debate should move off outcomes to focus on a fair and acceptable process. For the Kurds, that means postponing the referendum, implementing confidence-building measures and seeking a new mechanism prioritising consensus. The U.S. needs to recognise the risk of an explosion in Kirkuk and press the Kurds, the Baghdad government and Turkey alike to adjust policies and facilitate a peaceful settlement.

My motto is: People should listen to the ICG. They have a much better track-record than do many higher-profile organizations that policymakers and media elites prefer to listen to. In this case, however, while I think they're right about this, I'm far from convinced that it's really possible to implement the IGC's alternatives at this point -- how much leverage do we really have over the Kurds at this point? -- but it would be worth a try. The last thing Iraq needs is a new conflict zone.

4/20/07 8:27AM del.icio.us this incoming links

Comments

I agree. Our government should be telling everyone to play nice, although it's doubtful anyone will listen.

Posted by: David Tomlin on April 20, 2007 11:09 AM

Michael Totten had a fascinating post about Kirkuk the other day.

Posted by: Steve on April 20, 2007 11:13 AM

I read through the ICG recommendations, and would note that their 23rd recommendation is mysteriously invisible. I've post it below:

"23. Everybody gets a pony!"

Posted by: Al on April 20, 2007 11:50 AM

Is it really true that the Turkomans would rather remain under federal control? That's not the impression you get from the Totten piece, and it's not what I would expect. Who wants to be ruled by Arabs?

Posted by: ed on April 20, 2007 12:32 PM

Who wants to be ruled by Arabs?

Someone for whom the alternative is rule by a group more immediately threatening.

Posted by: David Tomlin on April 20, 2007 12:55 PM

Yes, but what evidence is there that that Turkomans find Kurds more threatening than Arabs? That might be true, but it would surprise me. Is there evidence?

Posted by: ed on April 20, 2007 01:02 PM

Most Turkmens in Kirkuk prefer to be absorbed in the Kurdish autonomous region. It is much more stable than the central government region -- there is no war, terrorism, or insurgency in the Kurdish autonomous zone, which is why I could spend two months there without a gun and without any bodyguards -- and the Kurds are a great deal more tolerant of minorities and "others" than Iraq's Sunni Arabs are now.

The Turkish government is supporting a minority faction among the Turkmens there and using them to try to keep Kirkuk's oil wealth from going to Iraqi Kurdistan. Ankara fears and loathes a prosperous independent Kurdish state south of the border because they don't want their own Kurdish population to try to secede from Turkey and attach themselves to it.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten on April 23, 2007 03:40 AM

www.r10.net küresel ısınmaya hayır seo yarışması

Posted by: Sohbet on September 22, 2007 05:48 AM

Good comment.Thanks admin.

Posted by: youtube on November 16, 2007 02:56 PM

Thanks
Best regards
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