Kurdistan

"Anyone who bothered to notice understood that the Bush administration's plan......"
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Everything backstory I've read about Bush's Grand Iraq Adventure makes clear there was no plan to speak of. At least not beyond shock and awe and "See ya!"

put the explosive question of Kurdish political independence or autonomy high on the region's agenda

Kurdistan was ALREADY autonomous prior to the war. It's not like this is some new development that George W. Bush created. Jeebus.

At least this MacLeod has the good sense to reprint an e-mail from someone who actually knows something about Kurds, in which it is pointed out that the heightening of tensions really has to do with TURKISH POLITICS, not anything the Kurds have done.

Kurdistan was ALREADY autonomous prior to the war. It's not like this is some new development that George W. Bush created. Jeebus

Al, Iran with a nuke: more or less constrained in the actions that it can take than Iran without a nuke? Remember, in both cases, Iran is not just autonomous, but an actual nation state.

Right, this blog makes the correct statement. Essentially, there are a large number of insane nationalist militarists in Turkey who fear the erosion of their power in a properly-run democratic state that could join the European Union. They would prefer to invade other countries and kill people, and hope that the inevitable nationalist turn by the populace would leave them in power. The Turks have a term for this - the "deep state".

The problem is the military in Turkey and the crazy nationalism that siginificant Turks still believe in.

"One fuse leads to the Iraqi Kurds and their determination by year's end to hold a referendum on incorporating Kirkuk, Iraq's first, but rapidly depleting oilfields which Kurds sometimes claim is their "Jerusalem." For the Kurds, recovering Kirkuk is making up for decades of Saddam Hussein's repression and dispossession."

I'm glad to set that Kurds setting out to get oooodles of oil money is "TURKISH POLITICS."

I doubt either the Kurds or the Turks would agree.

I also find it hilarious that the invasion and destruction of Saddam's regime apparently had so little effect on what was going on in the region. All this stuff would have happened anyway!

Kinda makes the invasion and occupation of Iraq even more worthless than I thought it was. Except for all the bad stuff that's happening and going to happen.

I'm glad to set that Kurds setting out to get oooodles of oil money is "TURKISH POLITICS."

The Kurds, as an automonous region, were ALREADY getting oil money, since the 90s, under the Oil For Food program.

I also find it hilarious that the invasion and destruction of Saddam's regime apparently had so little effect on what was going on in the region. All this stuff would have happened anyway!

No. All "this stuff" would not have "happened anyway". All "this stuff" was already happening prior to the war.

I don't get your point, SCMT. The Kurds are getting a nuke?

One fuse leads to the Iraqi Kurds and their determination by year's end to hold a referendum on incorporating Kirkuk, Iraq's first, but rapidly depleting oilfields which Kurds sometimes claim is their "Jerusalem." For the Kurds, recovering Kirkuk is making up for decades of Saddam Hussein's repression and dispossession.

"The question of Kurdish political independence or autonomy" does not preclude the possibility (that is the fact) of prior Kurdish autonomy in Iraq.

Powers of the Earth has all the superficial,ill-informed commentary on Kurdistan that a body could want.

Shoot! This should work. Again, the point is that it is not outlandish for Turkish politics to change, to resurge in terms of nationalism sort of, with a huge war in its Couthern neighbor. There are in fact new factors at play that were not present during the later years of Saddam's rule.

Ah, so it was happening already and hundreds of thousands of American troops and the utter destruction of Iraqi civil society have had no effect on it.

Glad my tax money is being well wasted.

Also, the oil fields in N. Iraq aren't goinng to dole out "oil-for-food" sized checks. There's could be (I repeat) oooodles of oil money--countless billions, with no practical strings-- to fuel whatever the Kurds want to do with it.

And what was "happening anyway" will have billions of extra petro dollars to happen very combustibly.

If I were a Kurd, I'd want that money. If I were the Turkish government, I'd be very nervouse.

Of course, the Bush adminstration's deft hand on the rudder will keep anything that was "already happening" from degrading into something really nasty.

And if something horrible does happen, well hell it would have happened anyway!

Nice abrogation of responsibility you have there.

Ah, so it was happening already and hundreds of thousands of American troops and the utter destruction of Iraqi civil society have had no effect on it.

What does "it" refer to in your sentence? The war was plenty beneficial for the Kurds, including by removing the dictator who committed genocide against the Kurds (and was threatening to again if the UN ever left); the war just didn't have much of an effect on Kurd-Turkey relations.

We are watching tards argue here.

This is, in fact, largely a question of Turkish politics. Even one that has been a constant as long as I have been paying attention to the middle east (going on 10 years, that is).

But, it is also an issue that has been significantly impacted by events in Iraq. I mean, duh. Where Turkish politics involves the Turkish response to the political status of Kurdistan, you'd think that a war eliminating the government that had de jure authority over the region might make a difference. De jure and de facto independence for Kurdistan is something Turkey has always feared, so this was in fact predictable, and was in fact predicted before the war.

The distraction (although true)- "this is an issue of Turkish politics", does not change the fact that the war in Iraq had some impact on this issue.

mrpowell,

The problem is that the autonomous Kurdish region in Iraq is not pushing for de facto independence. They are pushing to have Kirkuk added to the their region, which is a question about the internal organization of IRaq. Nevertheless, the Turkish military (in a country where military involvement in politics has long roots and where military coups are not that far in the past) and Turkish politicians have threatened to invade another country (Iraq) if Kirkuk becomes part of the autonomous Kurdish region. This is a Turkish problem.

It's funny watching Al twist himself in knots of contradiction. There is a very big difference between a status quo where the Kurds practice de facto autonomy in the north while Hussein ruled over the Arabs in the south and the situation today where there is a bit of a free-for-all over Kirkuk and the Turks are blaming us for looking the other way when the PKK operates in the midst of our soldiers and our pershmega allies.

the situation today where there is a bit of a free-for-all over Kirkuk

Kirkuk was a Kurdish city in the past, before Saddam's genocidal arabization. So Kurd control of Kirkuk isn't exactly new.

and the Turks are blaming us for looking the other way when the PKK operates in the midst of our soldiers and our pershmega allies

The PKK operated in Iraqi Kurdistan prior to the war too. In fact, the Turkish military repeatedly invaded Iraqi Kurdistan prior to the war (during the times we were defending Iraqi Kurdistan) to hunt the PKK. So it's not like any of this is new.

It's not new, but it is getting worse. While Saddam was in power, everyone could pretend that there was a one-China type reality where Kurdistan was still part of Iraq, even though it was effectively independent. All the players, the Kurds, Turks, and Iraqis were able to live with the situation. Now that Iraq has fallen apart, the Kurds aren't going to play along, and the Turks aren't too happy about that.

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