Romneymania

Then again there were the 1969 Mets.

The fact that his campaign seems somewhat ashamed to admit that their fundraising success is related to Mormons being excited about the idea of a Mormon president

Is there a relevant link here? Because I would imagine his fundraising success has a lot more to do with his enormously successful career on Wall Street making him lots of very wealthy friends. I'm sure Mormons played a large role as well but would be very interested in any sort of breakdown.

By the way, Rudy Giuliani: also ridiculous. But you already know that.

"he strikes me as both a less formidable general election candidate than Rudy Giuliani"

But, of course, neither of them is particularly likely to be the Republican nominee.

Assuming Fred Thompson actually runs (an assumption which may or may not be correct), I'd put fair value on the GOP nomination field as follows:

40% McCain
30% Thompson
30% Field

Mitt is running for VP. God only knows why Rudy is running.

"right", you may want to pay attention to, like, the NYT link which was provided, which gives exactly this kind of breakdown.

- Chris

Matt, don't you think the media will decide just who and what is ridiculous?

Going to war and possibly wasting billions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of lives--not ridiculous at all.

Getting in a fight with security personnel a la Cynthia McKinney--absolutely ridiculous.

Being a racist like Strom Thurmond--not ridiculous.

Saying Barack Obama is 'clean'--soooo ridiculous.

Etc. The media makes the call. And we are not the media. Not even Big Media Matt.

Remember how hopeless Kerry looked for so long, though?

"Remember how hopeless Kerry looked for so long, though?"

Kerry '03 = McCain '07.

Petey -

You really think that McCain is still in the lead for the GOP nom at this point? Really? Even though he seems to be losing more of his biggest constituency (i.e. the media) and his polling numbers are in the tank? Do you think the big GOP money-men want him as the nom (I think they really wanted Romney myself)? The base doesn't want him as the nom, the big money-men don't want him as the nom -- only the press seemed to want him to be the nominee, if only for the great comeback story that would entail. But his hit jobs on the members of the press corps in Iraq seem to be starting to take the shine off of ole' Straight Talk for the journalistas.

I'm still thinking that the money-men want Romney and the voting base wants -- not John McCain, not Romney, and not Giulianni. If some blank slate like (Fred) Thompson can come in that the money-men can accept and the base voters can pin all of their hopes and dreams onto, he'll probably lock up the nomination. Otherwise, I suspect it will go to Giulianni (someone that the money-men approve of a bit more than McCain).

The ONLY folks I hear pining for a McCain run are folks who don't call themselves Republicans anymore. They keep saying "well, if McCain wins I might consider voting for a Republican again", but even some of those folks around here are calling McCain a jackass after his weekend stunt and wondering if he's slipping into Alzheimers.

Why is his campaign dead? Why is this so foregone? So far, all three have their hangups.

Huckabee, Brownback, and the Thompson Twins (hey! on the fly!) so far have no real traction. Yet.

He's got a chance, far as I can tell.

or are you saying that his flip flopping is so severe and his Mormonism too weird on its own?

Anyone?
R

"You really think that McCain is still in the lead for the GOP nom at this point? "

Like I mentioned, McCain is currently in Kerry '03 mode. No one likes him. But that's no impediment to actually winning the nomination.

"If some blank slate like (Fred) Thompson can come in that the money-men can accept and the base voters can pin all of their hopes and dreams onto, he'll probably lock up the nomination."

I'd dispute the "probably" here, but I agree with you that Thompson has an extraordinary opening. Three months ago, he wasn't even being mentioned, and now he's got a legitimate shot of actually winning the WH. I can't think of a similar situation in the past 50 years.

The fact that his campaign seems somewhat ashamed to admit that their fundraising success is related to Mormons being excited about the idea of a Mormon president doesn't, to me, indicate that this operation is really going to get off the ground even with all the cash.

I thought it had to do with the fact that he knows an unbelievable number of rich people, and didn't meet them because he was running for office.

Chris, I read the link. I just didn't see any real evidence that (a) his "fundraising success is related to Mormons being excited about the idea of a Mormon president" in any particularly significant way (obviously Mormons will be more likely to donate to him, but 15% of his funds coming from the state of Utah doesn't seem like an overwhelming percentage, or (b) that Romney's campaign is "somewhat ashamed" of it. It just seems they're trying to fend off strange implications like the one Matt is making.

Anyway, my point is that Romney's Mormonism is obscuring the facts that (a) he's enormously wealthy and (b) he has enormously wealthy friends -- more in fact, than any other candidate, with only Hillary coming anywhere close.

"he strikes me as both a less formidable general election candidate than Rudy Giuliani"

I disagree. Rudy has way too many skeletons rattling in his closet. By the time he is vetted he will be a very weak general election candidate. I am not aware of any skeletons in Romney's closet. Religion thing is his only negative right now.

I agree with Petey.

McCain is still in the game and still the frontrunner. He is the establishment candidate and he still has enormous media support.

Rudy's baloon will deflate. Where will his votes go? McCain will get a chunk of it.

Petey, Intrade sets odds also. Currently thay have Giuliani 33%, McCain 20%, Fred Thompson 20% and Romney 17%. I trust their odds more than yours.

A lot of people thought Reagan was ridiculous and could never be elected.

"Petey, Intrade sets odds also. Currently thay have Giuliani 33%, McCain 20%, Fred Thompson 20% and Romney 17%. I trust their odds more than yours."

I made a huge amount of money at Intrade in the '04 primary race, a bit of money at Intrade in the '04 general election race, and a lot of money at Intrade in the '06 Congressional races.

I've already made a good bit of money in the '08 primary race, and I expect to make a huge amount more. Presidential primary race markets are extraordinarily easy to beat - easier than any other political market I've run across. They move a lot, in generally predictable directions. And they're quite often very far away from fair value.

(Interestingly, I've got good knowledge of the NBA, but the TradeSports NBA markets trade much closer to where I'd put fair value - i.e. they're much harder to beat.)

Giuliani is currently trading at 32%. Last week, he was trading over 40%, and I sold short. Is the market right this week, or was the market right last week? I think the market is still way off, and Giuliani has further to sink.

I'm long McCain, and I think being long McCain at these prices is an absolute no-brainer. He may not win the nomination, but his chances are far better than 18%.

Can you do place bets (VP) at Intrade, or is it all on the nose? I'd buy all the Brownback I can get, but I want him to place, not to win.

Playing longshots to place at the Plainfield CT dog track paid my book bill in college. Of course, playing ongshots to win could have paid my tuition, but why get greedy? I'll take $3.80 on a $2.

Someone's got to go on the ticket whose orthodoxy and fanaticism are sufficient to reassure the Taliban wing of the GOP, and I figure Sam's the Man.

I'm a BrownBacker, but only to show.

I lived thru the defeat of Shannon O'Brien and I've heard what you're saying before. I hope I'm wrong, but he outspent O'Brien two to one, for all practical purposes, buying the election. If there is one thing he knows, it's how to use money, and he has plenty of it. He is, as I write this, doing RADIO ads in Florida on progressive radio stations. Really well crafted and mind-gnawing messages, just like I remember hearing on the radio here in Massachusetts. Like I said, I hope I'm wrong. Romney's cold heart makes George seem like Mother Theresa, mainly because he's smarter by a large degree than Bush.

"Then again there were the 1969 Mets.

Posted by: steve duncan "

Doesn't apply here. The '69 Mets had actual talent.

"and wondering if he's slipping into Alzheimers.." are you realy wondering?

The clip regarding use of condoms made it clear that he can’t mentally access some really basic stuff. This won’t get better. He will be out of the race by end of summer due to “medical reasons”. He no longer seems at all viable, so why finance him?

If Fred enters, it is his. If not, it is Romney’s. Even though Romney has no scruples or character, he is hitting all the right buttons, and will get the core Republican support by default. What a fucking shit ass party, and system…I kinda hope Bloomberg blows the whole current process up.

someone else said it about McC's Baghdad photo op: it was a Dukakis moment... and you hit the nail on the head about Romney: he can't have his cake and eat it too... he wants to ride to victory on Mormon voters but at the same time distance himself from them... I don't think a strategy like that has ever been successful...

My old college had a club called the Radical/Reactionary Popular Front. In the spirit of that outfit, may I suggest a rare convergence of interest between left and right in re Romney? Many fundies are suspicious of the L.D.S. on doctrinal grounds but liberal Christians, Jews, and secularists have every reason to find the Mormons problematic as well. Do we really want a guy in power who is supported by a 19th Century version of Scientology?

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