The Bloomberg Factor

And yet, no. Bloomberg would get many votes from the non-crazy Republican types, such as the fiscal conservatives who have no patience for Terri Schiavo-type crap, who feel sufficiently icky about the Democratic brand that they'd never view it as a real option.

What your analysis misses is that there are a lot more disaffected Republicans than Democrats these days.

Some of this may be Hillary-specific. She has high unfavorables, and hardened anti-Hillary voters who still aren't happy with McCain may be the ones taking the 3rd option.

What your analysis misses is that there are a lot more disaffected Republicans than Democrats these days.

Bingo.

It's about ignorance; and, actually harkens back to your recurring theme of Hillary appearing more liberal than she actually is: All the 'moderates' and 'centrists' who fear "Red" Hillary would be more comfortable voting for Bloomberg than continuing the Bush legacy with McCain, Romney or Guiliani...

Slightly off topic - Bush's numbers at around 30%, and The War having similar numbers strikes me as extremely bad for the GOP.
Among those 30% are probably the most likely to vote in a Republican primary. An impossible two step on the biggest issue of the day.
Steve's analysis above seems spot on -- for the first time in a while, it is the Republicans that have the dissaffected voters.

Speaking as a disaffected Republican, I don't see voting for Bloomberg. It's not like he's going to win, and, in my view, he's more in the mold of Lindsay than Giuliani (who I liked as mayor, unlike our host.)

If you are going to effectively vote for a Democrat, you might as well vote for the Democrat, rather than give our crackers electoral college system a chance to screw things up.

To 90% of the country, Bloomberg in known as the Republican Mayor of New York. Those from New York and those familiar with him prior to being mayor remember that he was a well-known, if centrist Democrat that was quite open about switching parties so that he could have a chance in the primaries. If he runs, especially as a non-Republican, his actual place on the political spectrum will become clear. He seems to fit better opposite Clinton rather than Obama because he makes up for Clinton's more superficial weaknesses (charisma and so forth) but is outshined by Obama is those same areas. I'm a Californian, so I haven't seen that much of him, but I have a hunch when it's all said and done, he may be to the left of Clinton on many issues.

"Hillary Clinton easily beating McCain or Giuliani in a three-way"
That sounds disturbing.

Ignore this poll.

How many republican Bloomberg supporters know that he is anti death penalty, pro choice, pro gun control? Bloomberg is a social liberal.

In a presidential election Bloomberg would hurt the Dem nominee.

I went to add a comment but the very first one said what I was going to say. Bloomberg will attract votes from people like my uncle - people who know what the Republican party has become but would never ever ever vote for a Democrat.

No, no, Steve had it right.

Democrats have learned the value of party discipline and loyalty. I do not see reinvigorated Democrats turning away from their nominee to vote for a Rockefeller Republican whose greatest political achievement is reforming a municipal school system.

It's a moot point anyway; he isn't going to run.

Last I checked, the electoral college still existed so national popular vote match ups mean squat. Logically, a Bloomberg third party candidacy would put northeastern states into play. Since the south is a lock for the Republican nominee, that means either another narrow Republican victory or perhaps even an election going to the House of Representatives. Now if the polling data showed Bloomberg allowing Hillary or other Democrats a chance to win southern and border states they otherwise have no chance in, that would be very interesting.

The narrative I believe:

From various blogs including this one:
a) Generic Dem to Generic Republican, 45-25 or so.
b) Any Dem vs Giualiani or McCain, 45-45 or so.
c) Any Dem vs any other Republican (such as Romney) 45-30 or so.

Looks like Rudy and McCain have special appeal outside the Republican-minded voters, and other than that everything else in this race is generic party preference.

Now, independents who like Rudy and McCain but wouldn't vote for a generic Republican? I think THOSE are the people who like Bloomberg, and thus turning Any Dem vs G or M vs Bloomberg into 45-30-15 or something.

I don't think Bloomberg would run either, but I must admit, if I were him, I would run. Presumably he is a Dem at heart, certainly relative to the current administration. Doing something that guarantees a Democratic presidency, and has a 1% chance of making YOU president (who knows what could happen), and gets you lots of media attention sounds... well sounds like a good deal.

Ron: assuming this polling is accurate, you really think someone with a 10+ point popular vote advantage is ever in threat of losing the electoral college?

We've had some confusions in the past, but nothing like that big a spread.

What do we actually know about the predictive value of this kind of prospective polling? Smart discourse on politics seems to me about 20 years behind smart discourse on sports here. If a 23 year old outfielder hits 15 homers in 400 AAA at bats, we have some idea what that suggests he would do with 550 NL at bats at age 24. But if a 59 year old Senator gets 361/1079 votes going head-to-head with a Mayor two years before the election, what the heck does that say about how many of 120 million votes she would get against him 18 months from now?

McCain is done. He's essentially running as Bush, using the Iraq Fuckup as his platform.

Romney actually underperforms "generic Republican" -- according to the same Rasmussen poll that had Edwards beating McCain 47-38, Edwards beats Romney 55-29.

Ron is also too quick to dismiss southern states I believe if Bloomberg were to run. Let's consider, for example, Georgia. In 2004 Bush beat Kerry 58-41 in Georgia, and in 2000 he beat Gore 55-44. So let's give Bush a +14 in Georgia. Now, if we shave 9 from the Republican total that's down to +5. Bush faired very well in the south, and I'd have to imagine that in the upcoming election, the generic difference would be closer anyway in the South. But then of course Georgia is 30% black, which could push the state closer if for the first time in a long time vote were actually close.

And that's Georgia! Virginia would certainly go Dem with Bloomberg in the race. North Carolina would certainly be in play as well (Hello Edwards). Ohio flips, Florida flips.

Neil I think you are looking at extreme results, and the averages of the many polls approach the "or so" values I mentioned up top.

This early out, there are HUGE variations, and we must balance these with looking at all polls.

I'm just thrilled that the "Real Americans" out in "the Heartland" are going get stuck having to to choose between 3 New Yawkas for President. BOO-YA!

I doubt these "voters" know much at all about Bloomberg. Still, could this be the vestiges of the Perot vote? Perot's votes also came from disaffected vaguely reformist Republicans, and 8% matches his '96 total.

The big issue is whether Bloomberg could actually carry some states and prevent either major party candidate from getting 270 electoral votes. Furthermore, it is likely that the House of Representatives to be seated in Jan. 2009 will not have either party having a majority in 26 states. This means that the vice-president would be chosen by the Senate, and since there is no president, would be acting president until 2013. To carry this scenario further, if the new Senate was split 50/50, this would mean that Dick Cheney, as President of the Senate, could choose the next president because he remains in office until 1/20/2009.

Bloomberg can't possibly expect to win, so if he runs as an independent, he'll be doing it to play spoiler. Who he helps clearly depends on who he's trying to help. Because he could campaign one of two ways.

Any idea whether he'll be trying to get back into the good graces of the Democratic party by hurting the Republican nominee, or firming up relations with the GOP by hurting the Democrat? I haven't a clue which he'll decide to do.

I can't see why he would have any reasons to want to firm up relations with the GOP. If he did run though, I think it would end up putting NY in play. Hell, I'd probably vote for him.

All it means to me is that Clinton has a lot of unfavorables, people who can't stomach her. So it may seem to MY illogical from the standpoint of policy, because a moderate would undermine her base. But it's about splitting the Clinton haters. I find this irrational, even though I oppose Clinton on (liberal) ideological grounds. But politically it has to be reckoned with and suggests she's not an ideal nominee regardless of who you like.

As a New Yorker, I truly love what Bloomberg has done as mayor. All the competence of the Giulianni administration with none of the psychotic breakdowns that made New Yorkers want to run him out of town by the end.

That being said, I think there is no way he would hurt Dems. If he were some charismatic firebrand who drew people in by the strength of his personality maybe, but as it is he's a totally uncharismatic man who happens to have good policy ideas that are only slightly more centrist than someone like, say, Obama. Democrats are very enthused about their candidates, I think it's safe to say that there is no nominee that most of us couldn't get behind with full force given the context of this election after 8 years of Bush. There is nothing Bloomberg has that is radically different enough from the Democratic nominees to make someone seriously question their choice unless they live in New York City. But on the Republican side? People HATE their guys and no one commands any real enthusiasm except as the lesser of six or seven evils. Bloomberg would be a protest vote for everyone fed up with the party, regardless of his actual political positions.

That's no surprise at all. DLC types don't like to admit this because it cuts against their major selling point as the faction who knows how to win, but Ross Perot was on the ballot both times when Clinton won. Who knows whether he'd have beaten 41 in a 2-way matchup?

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