Time to Reconsider?

Oh, crap. Victor Davis Hanson comes out against bombing Iran, thus forcing me to wonder whether I should give the military option a second look.

4/5/07 1:21PM del.icio.us this incoming links

Comments

You're missing the, um, counter-intuitive part of the argument-- Hanson is saying that that we should hold off bombing Iran until their behavior improves.

Posted by: MattF on April 5, 2007 01:36 PM

Amazingly, he's arguing that we should not bomb Iran because that's what they would want us to do. Are we sure this isn't a parody site?

Posted by: right on April 5, 2007 01:38 PM

Victor Davis Contrarian Infant:

It's probably a good rule to do the opposite of anything the Iranian theocracy wants. Apparently, this government is now doing its darnedest to be bombed. So, for the time being, we should not grant them this wish.

Apparently Vic thinks the US should give declare Osama bin Laden an ally in the War Against Unfrieldly Muslim Theocracies, because, y'know, the mullahs hate al Qaida. This opens new avenues of foreign policy I've never considered. Imagine! If we just figure out what the opposition wants and then make sure to do the exact opposite, we win!

Sheer genius.

Posted by: Monty on April 5, 2007 01:49 PM

"Squelching" on debts?

Posted by: 4/6 on April 5, 2007 01:53 PM

Y'all need to keep in mind that VDH is crazy like a fox (or possibly a bloodthirsty shrew.) He rejects bombing, but he appears to favor a divestment campaign and high-seas blockade that would cause more widespread suffering than bombing military targets, and would leave Iran little choice but to take actions leading toward war.

He's a trickster, this Hanson cat.

Posted by: LaFollette Progressive on April 5, 2007 01:54 PM

There's just nothing in it for Victor. Bombing doesn't feature sweaty, buff seminude male bodies, unlike the Hollywood image of Thermopylae.

Posted by: Steve LaBonne on April 5, 2007 01:55 PM

Persian Emissary: This is madness!

Spartan King Leonidas: Madness? This is HAAAANNNNNSSSSSOOONNNN!!!!

Posted by: norbizness on April 5, 2007 02:04 PM

VDH is pseudo-intellectualism on stilts.

Posted by: Reality Man on April 5, 2007 02:07 PM

Although "If Hanson believes it, then it is wrong" is probably a very useful heuristic, it gets complicated here, because he seems to be employing an "if Iran wants it, then it is wrong" heuristic of his own.

I think employing the otherwise useful VDH != correct logic would, in this case, yield an Iran == correct outcome, which also can't be right.

Posted by: dj moonbat on April 5, 2007 02:09 PM

Ah, dj moonbat, you are correct. We must remember to take into account the "Stopped Clock Postulate" as well as its corrolary the "One Can Be Correct For The Wrong Reasons" theorem. This means that the Victor Davis Hanson machine is not, in fact, a deterministic device for assigning the correct form of action but is instead a non-deterministic function whose output should either be carefully scrutinized to determine whether it should be used to make a decision, or possibly ignored altogether as "semi-random noise".

I know which conclusion I would draw.

Posted by: NonyNony on April 5, 2007 02:30 PM

Amazingly, he's arguing that we should not bomb Iran because that's what they would want us to do.

Well, god help me, he has a point.

Haven't we sensible folk been agreed that the sometimes-shaky theocrats in Iran would love the U.S. to bomb a few nuke sites, in order to help keep the population focused on nationalism rather than, say, why they can't buy porn off the internet?

Posted by: Anderson on April 5, 2007 03:08 PM

Iran has been asking for it for a long time and they are going to get it.

http://web.israelinsider.com/views/11098.htm

Posted by: SLC on April 5, 2007 04:49 PM

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Posted by: Nick Kaufman on April 5, 2007 05:26 PM

Neocons like Hanson act as if our history with Iran began in 1979, conveniently forgetting years of US/British involvement and interference before and during the Shah's reign.

Posted by: dango on April 5, 2007 06:13 PM

"Neocons like Hanson act as if our history with Iran began in 1979, conveniently forgetting years of US/British involvement and interference before and during the Shah's reign.
Posted by: dango on April 5, 2007 06:13 PM"

Doing so would mean that they would have to care about brown people (even though Iranians aren't exactly that brown) and they can't have that. Knowing stuff about another country, especially a non-white one? Why would a neocon care? Neo-conservatism is one part Trotskyism (bite me Hitchens) with one part Rousseaian (sp?) delusions and one part virulent racism masked as humanitarianism. Sadly, this is how they seem smart to the under-educated people who can't find Iran (or Ohio) on a map.

Posted by: Reality Man on April 5, 2007 06:59 PM

Neocons like Hanson act as if our history with Iran began in 1979, conveniently forgetting years of US/British involvement and interference before and during the Shah's reign.

Hanson doesn't forget about it. They almost certainly favor the overthrow of Mossadegh and the installation and maintenance of the Shah, but would prefer not to stand up for those positions, because it takes things out of the realm of the Greek epic and into the realm of skulduggery.

Posted by: dj moonbat on April 5, 2007 07:17 PM

There is increasing rumors of impending US air attack on Iran, from Kuwaiti and Russian sources and being repeated in Chinese newspapers. Not sure how credible as these things seem to come and go, could just be psych-ops.

Posted by: Ben on April 5, 2007 08:41 PM

"The country's leadership apparently worried little about retaliations from NATO, since their officers, according to one former top-ranking military official with whom I spoke, had been orchestrating the killing of Americans inside Iraq since well before Iranian vessels intercepted a British boat they claimed was in Iranian waters."

I seem to remember the rest of us saw that claim on the teevee, live from Baghdad, without having VDH's contacts with "former top-ranking military officials".

Posted by: MikeN on April 5, 2007 09:52 PM

Ok, well, they had totally laid out the groundwork for war, and now they're signalling back off.

I read that as they were ready to go and something happened.

m, they doesn't mean they've backed off in the long term, the long term being 2009.

Posted by: max on April 6, 2007 01:56 AM

Appeasement of Iran.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/05/AR2007040501796.html?hpid%3Dopinionsbox1&sub=AR

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